Election Live: Spanberger leads Democratic sweep; party flips 13 House seats

This is a running compilation of election updates and analysis. For results, see the Virginia Department of Elections site. If you like what we’re doing at Cardinal, you can support us by becoming a member.

12:15 a.m.: Whittle wins Danville-area House seat for Republicans

All the early votes in House District 49 have been counted and Reublican Madison Whittle has won wth 53.06% of the vote. That should wrap things up: Democrats sweep goveror, lieutenant overnor, attorney general and pick up 13 House seats. I’m going to call it a night (as soon as I finish my Wednesday moring column that explains all this).

11:15 p.m.: Thornton defeats Cordoza; that’s 13 new seats for Democrats

The HD 86 results are now final: Democrat Virgil Thornton has ousted Del. A.C. Cordoza, R-Hampton. Of the 14 seats Democrats targeted, they won 13 to give them 64 seats in the new House. They also have an outside chance of winning a race they didn’t target: In HD 39 in the Danville area, Republican Madison Whittle holds a 996-vote lead over Democrat Gary Miller but 1,601 early votes remain to be counted (plus any provisionals and late-arriving mail ballots).

HD 22 (Prince William): Elizabeth Guzman (D) has defeated Ian Lovejoy (R)
HD 30 (Loudoun, Fauquier): John McAuliff (D) has defeated Geary Higgins (R)
HD 34 (Harrisonburg, Rockingham): Tony Wilt (R) has defeated Andrew Payton (D)
HD 41 (Montgomery, Roanoke County): Lily Franklin (D) has defeated Chris Obenshain (R)
HD 57 (Henrico, Goochland): May Nivar (D) has defeated leads David Owen (R)
HD 64 (Stafford): Stacey Carroll (D) has defeated Paul Milde (R)
HD 66 (Caroline): Nicole Cole (D) has defeated Bobby Orrock (R)
HD 69 (Yorktown area): Mark Downey (D) has defeated Chad Green (R)
HD 71 (Williamsburg area): Jessica Anderson (D) has defeated Amanda Batten(R)
HD 73 (Chesterfield): Leslie Mehta (D) has defeated Mark Earley Jr. (R)
HD 75 (Chesterfield, Hopewell): Lindsey Dougherty (D) has defeated Carrie Coyner (R)
HD 82 (Petersburg area): Kimberly Pope Adams (D) has defeated Kim Taylor (R)
HD 86 (Hampton, Poquoson area): Virgil Thornton (D) has defeated A.C. Cordoza (R)
HD 89 (Chesapeake, Suffolk): Karen Carnegie (D) has defeated Mike Lamonea (R)

10:56 p.m.: Downey wins; 12 new Democratic delegates

Democrat Mark Downey has defeated Del. Chad Green, R-York County. That means Democrats will have at least 63 seats. Democrats lead in another race, the Virgil Thornton-A.C. Cordoza race in the Hampton area. Thornton seems likely to win there, which would mean 13 pickups.

10:54 p.m.: Make that 11 pickups; Daugherty defeats Coyner

Democrat Lindsey Daughterty has defeated Del. Carrie Coyner, R-Chesterfield County. That means Democrats will have at least 62 seats.

10:51 p.m.: Anderson defeats Batten, House pick-ups go to 10 seats

Democrat Jessica Anderson has ousted Del. Amanda Batten, R-James City County, who has held a leadership position in the House Republican caucus. Democrats will now have at least 61 seats in the 100-member House.

10:23 p.m.: Democrats flip 9 House seats, could add 4 more

Here’s the current count:

HD 22 (Prince William): Elizabeth Guzman (D) has defeated Ian Lovejoy (R)
HD 30 (Loudoun, Fauquier): John McAuliff (D) has defeated Geary Higgins (R)
HD 34 (Harrisonburg, Rockingham): Tony Wilt (R) has defeated Andrew Payton (D)
HD 41 (Montgomery, Roanoke County): Lily Franklin (D) has defeated Chris Obenshain (R)
HD 57 (Henrico, Goochland): May Nivar (D) has defeated leads David Owen (R)
HD 64 (Stafford): Stacey Carroll (D) has defeated Paul Milde (R)
HD 66 (Caroline): Nicole Cole (D) has defeated Bobby Orrock (R)
HD 69 (Yorktown area): Mark Downey (D) holds a narrow lead over Chad Green (R) with early votes still out
HD 71 (Williamsburg area): Jessica Anderson (D) holds a narrow lead over Amanda Batten(R) with early vote still out
HD 73 (Chesterfield): Leslie Mehta (D) has defeated Mark Earley Jr. (R)
HD 75 (Chesterfield, Hopewell): Lindsey Dougherty (D) holds lead over Carrie Coyner (R) but only about half the precincts are in
HD 82 (Petersburg area): Kimberly Pope Adams (D) has defeated Kim Taylor (R)
HD 86 (Hampton, Poquoson area): Virgil Thornton (D) holds a narrow lead over A.C. Cordoza (R) with the early vote still out.
HD 89 (Chesapeake, Suffolk): Karen Carnegie (D) has defeated Mike Lamonea (R)

10:09 p.m.: Wilt holds his House seat, only targeted Republican to win

Of the 14 Reublican seats Democrats targeted, they’ve won seven and lead in six others. Only Del. Tony Wilt, R-Rockingham County, has survived narrowly.

Meanwhile, here’s a surprise: It’s not out of the question that Democrat Gary Miller could win an upset in a non-targeted race in the Danville area. Republican Madison Whittle leads by 998 votes but there are 2,862 early votes yet to be counted.

9:41 p.m.: Here’s where the House stands

Democrats control the current House 51-49 and have’t lost any seats. They targeted 14 Republican held seats and so far have won seven. They currently lead in five others and could pick up the final two when the early votes gets counted. Let’s recap:

HD 22 (Prince William): Elizabeth Guzman (D) has defeated Ian Lovejoy (R)
HD 30 (Loudoun, Fauquier): John McAuliff (D) has defeated Geary Higgins (R)
HD 34 (Harrisonburg, Rockingham): Tony Wilt (R) lead narrowly over Andrew Payton (D) but only about half the precincts are in, plus early vote
HD 41 (Montgomery, Roanoke County): Lily Franklin (D) has defeated Chris Obenshain (R)
HD 57 (Henrico, Goochland): May Nivar (D) has defeated leads David Owen (R)
HD 64 (Stafford): Stacey Carroll (D) hold narrow lead over Paul Milde (R) with early vote still out
HD 66 (Caroline): Nicole Cole (D) has defeated Bobby Orrock (R)
HD 69 (Yorktown area): Chad Green (R) holds narrow lead over Mark Downey (D) holds a narrow lead with early votes still out
HD 71 (Williamsburg area): Jessica Anderson (D) holds a narrow lead over Amanda Batten(R) with early vote still out
HD 73 (Chesterfield): Leslie Mehta (D) has defeated Mark Earley Jr. (R)
HD 75 (Chesterfield, Hopewell): Lindsey Dougherty (D) holds lead over Carrie Coyner (R) but only about half the precincts are in
HD 82 (Petersburg area): Kimberly Pope Adams (D) has defeated Kim Taylor (R)
HD 86 (Hampton, Poquoson area): A.C. Cordoza (R) hold narrow lead over Virgil Thornton ((D) but only about half the precinct are in plus early vote
HD 89 (Chesapeake, Suffolk): Karen Carnegie (D) leads Mike Lamonea (R) but only about half the precinct are in plus early vote

9:33 pm.: Cole ousts Orrock for 5th Democratic pick up

Democrat Nicole Cole has defeated Del. Bobby Orrock, R-Caroline County.

9:27 p.m. : Here’s Spanberger’s victory speech

9:19 p.m.: McAuliff wins in HD 30; fourth Democatic pickup

Democrat John McAuliff (no “e”) has ousted Del. Gearry Higgans of Loudoun County.

9:15 p.m. Apologies for the typos!

We’re having heavy traffic tonight (thanks!) and I’m typing faster than the site likes. Trying to go back and fix them.

9:11 p.m.: Democrat Nivar declares victory in HD 57

That would make three House seats that Democrats have flipped so far. May Nivar ousted Del. David Owens in the Ricmond suburbs.

9:05 p.m.: Here’s why Jones will probably win

While we’re waiting to hear from a bunch of rural Republican counties, we’re also waiting to hear from about half of Fairfax County — and Jones is winning the day-of voting there, so there may just not be enough places where Miyares and go to find votes.

8:45 p.m. Democrats flip two House seats but could win lots more

Democrats targeted 14 Republican-held House seats. They’ve already won two, lead six others but could conceivably win more as early vote comes in. The early vote generally favors Democrats so all those races where a Republicn leads narrowly could go the other way. That’s at least three more, which could take Democratic pickups to 11.

HD 22 (Prince William): Elizabeth Guzman (D) has defeated Ian Lovejoy (R)
HD 30 (Loudoun, Fauquier): John McAuliff (D) leads narrowly over Geary Higgins (R) with some early votes yet to be counted
HD 34 (Harrisonburg, Rockingham): Tony Wilt (R) lead narrowly over Andrew Payton (D) but only about half the precincts are in, plus early vote
HD 41 (Montgomery, Roanoke County): Chris Obenshain (R) leads Lily Franklin (D) but only about half the precincts are in, plus early vote
HD 57 (Henrico, Goochland): May Nivar (D) leads David Owen (R)but only about half the precincts are in, plus early vote
HD 64 (Stafford): Paul Milde (R) holds a narrow lead over Stacey Carroll (D) but 14,421 early votes left
HD 66 (Caroline): Bobby Orrock (R) hold a narrow lead over Nicole Cole (D) but 12,075 early votes left
HD 69 (Yorktown area): Mark Downey (D) holds a narrow lead over Chad Green (R) but 13,497 early votes left
HD 71 (Williamsburg area): Jessica Anderson (D) holds a narrow lead over Amanda Batten but only about half the precinct are in plus early vote
HD 73 (Chesterfield): Mark Earley Jr. (R) holds 406-lead over Leslie Mehta (D) with all precintcs reporting but 5,034 early votes left
HD 75 (Chesterfield, Hopewell): Lindsey Dougherty (D) holds narrow lead over Carrie Coyner (R) but only about half the precincts are in, plus early vote
HD 82 (Petersburg area): Kimberly Pope Adams (D) has defeated Kim Taylor (R)
HD 86 (Hampton, Poquoson area): A.C. Cordoza (R) leads Virgil Thoronton( D) but only about half the precinct are in plus early vote
HD 89 (Chesapeake, Suffolk): Karen Carnegie (D) leads Mike Lamonea (R) but only about half the precinct are in plus early vote

8:25 p.m. What to know about the AG’s race

Spanberger and Hashmi are clearly going to win, but the AG’s race is in doubt. At the moment, Jone leads 845,931 to 773,209 (52% to 48%) on the state site but 898,708 to 878,754 (50.56% to 49.44%) on VPAP, whih also has AP numbers. I don’t want to offer Republicans false hope but there are lots of rural (ie., Republican) counties that haven’t reported at all. The catch is they are smaller than the places in the urban crecent that have some votes but some still out.

Of note, heavily-Democratic Petersburg is 86% in, so the Democratic vote is coming in faster than the Republican vote, which is unusual.

Jones is winning the early vote but Miyares is winning the day-of voting. Interestily, Spanberger is also winning the day-of voting.

8:20 p.m.: Guzman ousts Lovejoy for first Democatic House pickup

Democrat Elizabeth Guzman has defeated Republican Del. Ian Lovejoy in HD 22 in Prince William County. That’s the first House seat to flip.

8:01 p.m.: Earley leads by just three votes in HD 73 in Chesterfield County

We need to start watching these House races. With 17 of 19 precicts reporting, Republican incumbent Mark Earley Jr. has a lead of just three votes over Democrat Leslie Mehta in a hotly-contested race in the Richmond suburbs. That House contest is closer to being done than any others but it’s still in doubt.

7:53 p.m.: What’s still out

The Department of Elections site has jammed up, so we can’t get into the locality-level we need to explain things, but we can say where the vote is coming, and where it’s not. Virtually all of Loudoun County is in, so that’s a lot of Democratic votes already counted. Other localities have far fewer votes in, and there are many localities across Southwest, Southside and the Shenandoah Valley that haven’t reported yet. Those should all be good places for Republicans. Right now, Spanberer and Hashmi are clearly ahead, but Jones holds a narrow lead of 50.44% to 49.56%, according to VPAP but 54.5% to 45.03% on the state site. That’s because VPAP, with an AP feed, has numbers the state apparently doesn’t yet. I’d expect those margins on the state site to narrow in the AG’s race as more rural areas come in but Im not sure which of those AP has and which ones it doesn’t.

7:43 p.m.: Democrats running up big margins

The votes are coming in fast and they’re showing all three Democrats building leads. The Department of Elections site is running slow, which is making it hard to offer much analysis at the moment other than this looks like a blue wave.

7:37 p.m.: We’re seeing a little vote drop-off in AG’s race

We’ve been wondering how many people just wouldn’t vote in the AG’s race. There’s always some voter drop-off but will this be more than usual? Here’s what we know so far. These are the current vote totals in each race:

Governor: 263,942
Lieutenant Governor: 262,054
Attorney General: 259,975

We need more numbers to draw more conclusions.

7:30 p.m.: Spanberger, Hashmi take leads, AG’s race close

The Department of Elections site has all three Democrats ahead; the Virginia Public Access Project is showing Miyares slightly ahead in the attorney general’s race. That’s likely because VPAP is also drawing from Associated Press reports and some of those state numbers haven’t caught up with AP yet. That race will keep us up late.

7:21 p.m.: Early returns from Chesterfield are Spanberger, Hashmi, ????

We’re getting in some precincts from Chesterfield. These are for Election Day ballots only, and they show Spanberger and Hashmi winning easily but the attorney general’s race essentially a tie. Chesterfield is a locality that’s expected to go Democratic and is, so we want to keep an eye on the AG’s race. This may be a case where Jones wins the early vote and can deal with a tie on day-of voting. We’ll see.

7:14 p.m. We’re starting to get some votes

This is faster than I expected. The Department of Elections reports votes in from precinct in seven localities across the state. These show all three Democrats ahead.

7:05 p.m.: Students still in line to vote in Blacksburg

Photojournalist Justin Fleenor posts that students are still in line at one of the Blacksburg precincts (E-3 on the Virginia Tech campus); the law says if you’re in line at 7 p.m. you can still vote. Here’s a photo that Kyle Reeder shot earlier for Cardinal. Long lines of students would generally be a good omen for Democrats.

7:03 p.m.: State Navigate calls it for Spanberger

Let the record show that State Navigate has forecasted Spanberger as the winner.

7 pm.: The polls have closed.

Now we wait.

6:30 p.m.: Scenes from the day

Here are some photos that Cardinal staffers collected today. Enjoy some pretty pictures while we wait for results.

6:04 p.m.: Republican numbers are coming up but Democratic localities still voting heavier

Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate has posted some 5 p.m. reports from localities that have them. While by no means complete, we continue to see a clear trend: Demoratic localities are voting at heavier rates than Republican ones. Here’s a sampling:

Arlington, heavily Democratic, is at 75.4% of last year’s turnout.

Lexington, much smaller but still strongly Democratic, is at 75.1%.

By contrast, Republican-voting Pulaski County is at 65.4%, Carroll County is at 63.9% while Norton is at 62.3%. We’re seeing rural Republican-voting rural area elsewhere post stronger numbers (Middlesex County is at 75.5%, Mathews County at 75.4%) but Southwest Virgiia definitely lags.

That’s not total turnout, that’s turnout measured against last year, so think of 100% being presidential levels. Bottom line: This appears to be a more Democratic turnout than last year, when Democrat Kamala Harris carried the state.

5:22 p.m.: I’ll be on WSLS-TV at 5:45 p.m.

For those of you in the Roanoke-Lynchburg TV market, I’ll be making an appearance on WSLS-TV (Channel 10) at 5:45 p.m.

4:17 p.m.: Republican turnout still lagging behind Democratic turnout

There are many localities that don’t release turnout figures through the day, so the list I’m looking at (compiled by Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate) is certainly incomplete. And there are swing areas where it’s hard to tell what a strong or weak turnout means. However, if we look at localities that are solidly blue or red and compare their turnout today with last year, we can get a better understanding of things. Here’s a sampling of some strong Democratic localities.

Falls Church is at 75.7% of its total 2024 turnout (4 p.m. report)

Williamsburg is at 72.9% (3 p.m. report)

Chesterfield County is at 72.3% (4 p.m. report).

Alexandria is at 71.1% (noon report)

Richmond is at 69.2% (3 p.m. report)

Fairfax County is at 63.7% (3 p.m. report)

Arlington County is at 62.0% (1:30 p.m. report)

Meanwhile, many rural localities, the bedrock of the Republican vote, are lagging well behind.

Orange County is at 60%. (3 p.m. report).

Craig County is at 59.1% (3 p.m. report).

Gloucester County is at 56.8% (3 p.m. report).

Galax is at 54.6% (2 p.m. report).

Bath County is at 54.4% (2 p.m. report)

Covington is at 51.8% (3 p.m. report)

Bristol is at 50.2% (2 p.m. report)

While localities always vote at different rates, keep in mind all these are being measured against themselves — so in theory they could all hit 100% of their vote last year, or even more, but obviously won’t.

We’re seeing higher vote shares in other rural counties, but Southwest Virginia is especially low. Republicans need a late surge of voters after work.

3:50 p.m.: No Republican workers at some Loudoun County precincts, Democratic delegate says

Del. David Reid, D-Loudoun County, says he’s visited 17 of the 23 precincts in his district today. He says when some Republican poll workers (the people out front solicitig votes) came to the end of their shift, they left “and the Republican tent sat empty for large portions of the day.”

2:53 p.m.: In Montomery County, Democratic precincts are outvoting Republican ones

This isn’t good news for Del. Chris Obenshain, R-Montgomery County, who faces a rematch with Democrat Lily Franklin. I used the turnout numbers that Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate has posted. In Montgomery County precincts that Franklin won two years, turnout is at 67.5% of presidential levels last year. But in the precincts that Obenshain won, they’re at 62% of last year’s presidential turnout. Obenshain needs a late surge of voters in Montgomery.

2:22 p.m.: The candidates in action

We have a new round of photos from some of the statewide candidates in action. We don’t have anything of the two candidates for governor but the four down ballot candidates have all posted photos of themselves out working today, so here they are:

1:06 p.m.: Early signs that Democratic localities are voting heavy while Republican areas lag

Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate has been posting turnout numbers through the day as part of his livestream, which you can watch here. What we’re seeing is that solidly Democratic areas are voting at a heavier rate than Republican ones. Here are some comparisons as of 1 p.m. (although some localities’ numbers might be a little older than that).

In Alexandria, a strong Democratic city, is already at 60.1% of its 2024 presidential turnout.

Harrionburg, also Democratic, is at 54.7%.

Falls Church, also Democratic, is at 53.6%.

Meanwhile, Republican Roanoke County is at 47.6%.

Republican Bedford County is at 44%.

Republican Rockingham County is at 43.8%.

All those rates may change but that’s where they stand now. Nuttycombe’s take: “White libs are coming out strong like crazy” and “Southwest Virginia is not coming out for this election.”

12:53 p.m.: Data suggests biggest concentration of Democratic voters who will skip Jones is in Northern Virginia

Arsenal PAC, which describes itself as a “pro-democracy” group (and whose website suggests its left-leaning) has produced this map that shows where people who are voting for Democrat Abigail Spanberger are most likely to skip voting for running mate Jay Jones for attorney general. You’ll see the brightest blotches are in Northern Virginia and around Charlottesville.

“These aren’t low-information voters staying home,” said Samantha Boucher, founder of Arsenal PAC, said in a statement. “They’re high-propensity Democrats and Independents who will vote in every other race on the ballot. The polling showed that they simply haven’t been communicated to effectively, on the impact the Attorney General can have on their lives.”

Based on that the group launched a video ad Monday aimed at reaching 60,000 of these households, half of which are in Northern Virginia. “The highest concentration of voters likely to skip the Attorney General line appears in Northern Virginia’s inner suburbs,” Arsenal said in a statement.

11:16 a.m. Miyares posts video with split-ticket voter

Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares, who was campaigning this morning in Stafford County, posted a video of himself with a voter who had cast a ballot for Democrat Abigail Spanberger for governor and Miyares for attorney general. Miyares’ post said: “Dave’s splitting his ticket — you can too.” That appears to be a recognition that his hopes for victory depends on some Spanberger voters.

Dave’s splitting his ticket — you can too. pic.twitter.com/MQO8qOSPLH — Jason Miyares (@JasonMiyaresVA) November 4, 2025

9 a.m.: State Navigate plans livestream update on turnout at 9:30

Chaz Nuttycombe of the Virginia-based nonprofit political data outlet State Navigate will be livestreaming at 9:30 a.m. on his YouTube channel to go over the early morning turnout figures.

8:55 a.m. McNamara at the polls in Salem

Cardinal staffers are out and about today. Dutchie Jessee was in Salem where she ran into Del. Joe McNamara, R-Roanoke County, shaking hands with voters as they went into the Salem Civic Center. He’s being challenged by Democrat Donna Littlepage in House District 40, which covers Salem and parts of Roanoke and Roanoke County.

8:41 a.m. Where the candidates are today.

John Reid, the Republican candidate for lieuenant governor, is visiting polling places in Fairfax County this morning.

Jay Jones, the Democratic candidate for attorney general, has a daylong series of stops in Hampton Roads and the Richmond area, two places his campaign seems to have focused a lot of energy in the final month.

Those are the only two candidates who have posted anything about their activities today.

4:10 a.m. Here’s what to expect today.

If you’re up early to read this, you’re not alone. All across Virginia, poll workers will soon be arriving at their precincts to get the election machinery set up. They have a long day. While it’s too late to sign up for this year, electoral boards almost always need extra hands on Election Day, so if you’re interested, think about signing up for next time. Here are some advisories on what to expect today, both procedurally and in terms of our coverage.

Polls open at 6 a.m., close at 7 p.m. If you’re in line at 7, you can still vote, but come 7:01 p.m., you’re too late.

Beware of turnout reports. Here’s what always bugs me: Hearing news reports about how turnout is “heavy” or “light” or whatever. That means nothing unless we have some context as to what that means and how it compares to years past. Some history to keep in mind: Turnout in a gubernatorial election always runs lower than in a presidential election, so the only fair comparison is with a previous gubernatorial election. In the 2021 election, 54.9% of registered voters in Virginia cast ballots for governor; that was the highest turnout since the passage of the “motor voter” law in the 1990s that expanded the electorate. Since then, turnout in a gubernatorial election has always been under 50% of registered voters — 47.6% in 2017, 43.0% in 2013, 40.4% in 2009, and so forth.

Beware of early vote reports. Smaller, rural precincts are the first to report. Larger precincts in bigger places report later simply because it takes longer to count more ballots. That means the first reports we usually hear are skewed toward those rural precincts, which tend to be Republican.

We may not find out some results tonight. This is nothing new. Woodrow Wilson went to bed in 1916 thinking he’d lost the presidency, only to wake up the next morning to find out he’d won. Virginia now has same-day registration; all those ballots are considered “provisional” ballots until election officials can verify the registration information later. Also, Virginia accepts mail-in ballots through noon on Friday as long as they’re postmarked in time today. There could be some close races where we just can’t say tonight who won.

When a news organization “calls” an election for a certain candidate, that means nothing. By that I mean it has no legal force; it’s simply that news organization’s analysis that, based on the trends, that particular candidate is going to win. The only people who truly “call” elections are on the State Board of Elections, which meets Dec. 1 to certify all the results.

What to expect from Cardinal’s coverage: I’ll be using this post for any updates that happen throughout the day, and then I’ll be analyzing the numbers tonight as they come in. Other Cardinal staffers will be writing about the results, once we have them. If you want to follow the numbers as they come in, see the Virginia Department of Elections site. Just remember, everything there will be unofficial until the post-election canvass next week.

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