Virginia’s 2025 campaign comes to a close Tuesday, with the state set to make history no matter which way things go.
For the first time, we will elect a woman as governor. If it’s Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, she will be the first Black woman elected governor in any state. If it’s Democrat Abigail Spanberger, she will be Virginia’s first governor whose previous political experience was solely in Washington since Claude Swanson in 1905.
For lieutenant governor, Virginia will either elect the first Muslim woman to any statewide office in the country (Democrat Ghazala Hashmi) or our first openly gay statewide candidate (Republican John Reid).
For attorney general, we will either elect our first Black attorney general (Democrat Jay Jones) or reelect our first Latino attorney general (Republican Jason Miyares).
All elections are important, but some are more important than others. Among the issues that are indirectly on the ballot are some pretty consequential ones — whether we want to legalize retail sales of cannabis, whether we want to change or repeal the state’s right-to-work law, whether we want a constitutional amendment to guarantee a right to an abortion and now, whether we want a constitutional amendment that would allow Virginia to gerrymander its congressional districts in time for next year’s midterms. You can see where the candidates stand on those issues on our Voter Guide.
Today, before we make all that history, let’s try to put this campaign in perspective. I’ll divide this into two parts — policy and politics.
Policy: You know, all that boring, important stuff
1. We don’t know much about what either candidate would do
This has been one of the most issueless campaigns I can remember. Earle-Sears hasn’t put out a single position paper. Spanberger has, but hers have often been rather bland. To be fair, candidates often tend to avoid issues, which are complicated things that don’t fit well onto a bumper sticker. Still, we haven’t had a single, animating issue like “no car tax!” was for Jim Gilmore in 1997 or parole abolition was for George Allen in 1993. The fact that I have to reach back to the 1990s to find good examples says something about the modern state of politics — although Bob McDonnell, running in the shadow of a recession in 2009, made a virtue of “Bob’s for jobs.”
Spanberger has run on “affordability,” but we really don’t have much sense of how that would translate into a legislative agenda if she’s elected. With Earle-Sears, we know even less. She’s spent much of the campaign running on transgender policy, even though polls show not many voters rank that as a top concern.
2. The winner will likely face a challenging economy for at least half her term
Earle-Sears has campaign signs that say “keep a good thing going.” That makes sense on one level: Gov. Glenn Youngkin is consistently popular in public opinion polls. However, there are warning signs flashing that those good times may have come to an end. Unemployment is rising. The state’s gross domestic product growth has dropped from 6.2% (one of the strongest in the country) to 1.7% (one of the weakest). A recent survey by the Northern Virginia Chamber found business sentiment in the state’s biggest regional economy is souring, with 49% of business leaders convinced that the Northern Virginia economy will decline in the next six months while only 26% believe it will grow. A report from Old Dominion University found both Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads — the state’s two biggest economic engines — are shedding jobs. An economic forecast from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia warns that the state likely will lose jobs this year (if so, that would be the first time in a non-pandemic year since 2010) and face “continuous stagnation” in 2026 with only marginal improvement in 2027.
The reason for this unhappy outlook: Both those reports cite President Donald Trump’s policies — with tariffs slowing Virginia’s trade-based economy and federal job reductions undermining the economy in Northern Virginia. Our next governor, whoever she may be, will have to spend time working on helping build a new economy in the state, particularly Northern Virginia.
3. Energy issues are going to dominate the next few years
Mandates and markets are colliding. The Virginia Clean Economy Act requires the state’s two biggest utilities — Dominion Energy and Appalachian Power — to go carbon-free by 2050. That’s set off a solar energy boom across rural Virginia that has also generated as much pushback as it’s generated power. Meanwhile, data centers may triple the state’s energy demands by 2040, according to a state report. So where’s all that power going to come from? And how much are we going to have to pay for it? Whoever we elect on Tuesday is going to have to deal with these questions, even if they haven’t been talking about them on the campaign trail. (Disclosure: Dominion is one of our donors but donors have no say in news decisions; see our policy).
Politics: Now we get to the fun stuff
We’ve seen the candidates less than we ever have before
Candidates have become less accessible than they once were. Blame social media for that. Candidates can pump out videos that give the appearance that they’re connecting with voters when they’re really not. Beyond that, we’ve seen the candidates less often in the western part of the state than ever before. Blame voting patterns and demographics for that. Most voters are on the eastern side of the state; for Democrats especially, there’s little reason to campaign west of Charlottesville, so they don’t.
After the June primary, Hashmi made just two trips to the western part of the state that I’m aware of — out of that, she held just a single media availability in Roanoke, the largest media market west of Richmond. Jones only made one western swing that I’m aware of, and didn’t hold any public events in Roanoke.
If either of them wins, Virginians in the western part of the state will have reason to regard them as strangers.
Schedules are strategy
One advantage of social media is that it does let us see where candidates have been. Jones appears to have spent a lot of time in Hampton Roads, which suggests he’s worried about his base after the text message scandal (he’s from Norfolk). The Republican candidates have spent a lot of time in the final weeks in Southwest and Southside; they need a big turnout from rural voters.
Earle-Sears has spent an interesting amount of time courting minority voters of all sorts; her social media feed twice shows her at events in Northern Virginia where she’s wearing a head covering as she met with Sikh voters and Muslim voters. One of the things we’ll be looking for Tuesday when the returns start coming in is whether those efforts have paid off.
Interestingly, Spanberger spent all of last Monday in Southwest Virginia, a place she won’t get many votes from. Later in the week, her bus tour took her to some other rural, Republican-voting communities, such as Page County and Isle of Wight County. This suggests a certain level of confidence. If Spanberger were worried, she wouldn’t be in Lee County, she’d be in Loudoun County.
Democrats are uneasy about Black turnout
Democrats have been concerned that their ticket is not exciting Black voters, a key constituency for the party. Many of the ads I’ve heard for Spanberger this fall have featured Black narrators. Hashmi is currently running ads where the narrator is Rep. Bobby Scott, one of the state’s two Black members of Congress. Spanberger agreed to only one debate and that was at Norfolk State University, one of the state’s historically Black colleges. Former President Barack Obama campaigned for Spanberger on Saturday; he’s campaigned for previous Democratic candidates in Virginia so I don’t read much into that, but it’s likely significant that his appearance was in Norfolk rather than, say, Northern Virginia.
Democrats were likely hoping that Jones’ presence on the ticket would help boost Black turnout but Jones’ text messages have made him politically radioactive with some voters; Spanberger can’t be seen relying on him. One of the things we’ll be watching Tuesday night is whether Black turnout meets its usual numbers or not.
Understanding the undervote
The latest polls suggest Virginians may be prepared to elect their first split since 2005. Just because Miyares currently leads Jones by a small margin, though, doesn’t mean he will once the votes are counted. Some voters may be hesitant at this point to say they’ll vote for Jones after the text message scandal, but may come around in the end. Or maybe they just won’t vote in that race — that’s called an “undervote.”
There’s always some ballot drop-off from people who don’t mark every race; will that increase this year? In 2021, there were 17,671 Virginians who cast ballots for governor but didn’t vote for attorney general, up slightly from 16,521 in 2017 although turnout was up, too.
We’ll be keeping a close eye on that Tuesday: Will the undervote be bigger or about the same? If it’s bigger, that would seem to hurt Jones and help Miyares. Jones needs every Democratic voter to stick with him.
How to understand the returns when they start coming in
The easiest thing will be to just come to Cardinal and read my live analysis that I’ll be posting through the night. For those who don’t want to just take my word for it, here’s what I’ll be looking for.
First, we need to know where the numbers are coming from. Rural areas, which tend to vote Republican, typically report first because they have fewer votes to count. What we want to do is compare those numbers with previous years to see if they’re up or down. If there’s a Republican lead early in the evening in any of the statewide races, it could well get smaller or disappear entirely when those late-arriving localities report. That’s not fraud or gamesmanship; it just takes more time to count a bigger number of votes.
Second, we need to look at some key bellwethers, those communities that flip back and forth. Here are five good ones: Chesapeake, Montgomery County, Radford, Surry County and Virginia Beach. All those voted for Democrat Ralph Northam in 2017 and then switched to Republican Glenn Youngkin in 2021. If I could only know five results from Tuesday night, it would be those five. If I only knew two, it would be Chesapeake and Virginia Beach, simply because of their size. If you really want to nerd out, you can drill down to the precinct level.
Third, please remember that we may not find out some results Tuesday night. Virginia has same-day voter registration; anyone who registers on Election Day casts a provisional ballot that will be adjudicated later. Virginia also allows mail-in ballots to arrive by noon Friday as long as they’re postmarked by Tuesday. (If that seems weird to you, just remember that the IRS doesn’t require your tax form by a certain date; it just has to be postmarked by a certain date.) Those provisional ballots are typically highest in place with college students. Three of the most contested House races in the state are in districts that include James Madison University (Democrat Andrew Payton versus Republican Tony Wilt in House District 34), Virginia Tech (Democrat Lily Franklin versus Republican Chris Obenshain in House District 41) and the College of William & Mary (Democrat Jessica Anderson versus Republican Amanda Batten in House District 71). If Democrats can orchestrate a big turnout of college voters, we may not know those results until next week.
These are the House races to watch
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates. All 100 seats there are on the ballot, although far fewer are truly competitive. The state Senate won’t be up for reelection until 2027.
Democrats have set their sights on 14 Republican-held seats; the Democratic candidate is listed on the left, the Republican on the right:
HD 22 (Prince William): Elizabeth Guzman vs. Ian Lovejoy
HD 30 (Loudoun, Fauquier): John McAuliff vs. Geary Higgins
HD 34 (Harrisonburg, Rockingham): Andrew Payton vs. Tony Wilt
HD 41 (Montgomery, Roanoke County): Lily Franklin vs. Chris Obenshain
HD 57 (Henrico, Goochland): May Nivar v. David Owen
HD 64 (Stafford): Stacey Carroll vs. Paul Milde
HD 66 (Caroline): Nicole Cole vs. Bobby Orrock
HD 69 (Yorktown area): Mark Downey vs. Chad Green
HD 71 (Williamsburg area): Jessica Anderson vs. Amanda Batten
HD 73 (Chesterfield): Leslie Mehta vs. Mark Earley Jr.
HD 75 (Chesterfield, Hopewell): Lindsey Dougherty vs. Carrie Coyner
HD 82 (Petersburg area): Kimberly Pope Adams vs. Kim Taylor
HD 86 (Hampton, Poquoson area): Virgil Thornton vs. A.C. Cordoza
HD 89 (Chesapeake, Suffolk): Karen Carnegie vs. Mike Lamonea (open seat)
Republicans feel they’re on the defensive this year, but here are four Democratic-held seats where they feel they have their best opportunities:
HD 21 (Prince William): Josh Thomas vs. Gregory Gorham
HD 65 (Fredericksburg area): Joshua Cole vs. Sean Steinway
HD 84 (Suffolk): Nadarius Clark vs. Felisha Storm
HD 97 (Virginia Beach) Michael Feggans vs. Tim Anderson
Other races to watch
When I’m not obsessing over the statewide numbers Tuesday night, I’m going to check in on the referendum in Wise County on whether to set up an electric authority. That’s intended as a way to attract large power users — such as, oh, you know, maybe a data center. The proposal for an electric authority came from county officials who are concerned that the resident utility, Old Dominion Power, may not be able to supply enough power. (Old Dominion is a subsidiary of a Kentucky-based utility that serves parts of Southwest Virginia; it’s not related to Dominion Energy). If the ballot question is approved, that could be a good measure of the enthusiasm in Wise County for economic development. If it fails, it could also signal a general skepticism of data centers and their energy needs — or maybe just general distrust of government, period.
Tuesday’s results will send a signal, but we should be cautious
Political junkies everywhere are always eager for their next fix and there aren’t many places to turn Tuesday to get some new numbers: Virginia, New Jersey and California for that state’s referendum on whether to redraw its congressional lines in response to Texas doing the same. The national news media is already paying attention to Virginia; MSNBC has booked me to appear on one of its shows Monday afternoon to talk about our elections. Feel free to tune in sometime in the 2 p.m. time slot; I never watch cable TV news of any variety so I’m not exactly sure what I’m getting myself into, but I’m guessing they don’t want to hear about the bear that ripped my car apart in search of food.
Otherwise, I’ll be here Tuesday posting my analysis of the numbers as they come in.
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