Roanoke College poll: Spanberger up by 10, lieutenant governor’s race close, Miyares builds lead in attorney general’s contest

In one of the last polls we’ll see before Election Day, Roanoke College finds Democrat Abigail Spanberger holding a lead of 10 percentage points, the lieutenant governor’s race essentially tied while Republican Jason Miyares is starting to build a lead of eight percentage points over Democrat Jay Jones in the attorney general’s contest.

That’s in line with the general trends in other recent polls, except that Miyares’ lead is a little bigger. If next week’s results match this poll, that would be the first time Virginians have split their tickets in a state election in 20 years.

Here are the numbers, then we’ll get to the analysis:

Governor: Abigail Spanberger (D) 51%, Winsome Earle-Sears (R) 41%
Lieutenant governor: Ghazala Hashmi (D) 42%, John Reid (R) 40%
Attorney general: Jason Miyares (R) 46%, Jay Jones (D) 38%

One important thing to note: All polls have to be based on a model what the pollster expects the electorate to look like. Rather than guess, many pollsters simply use what the last similar election looked like, which in this case would be the 2021 governor’s race. That was a Republican year in Virginia, with unusually high turnout in Republican-voting rural areas. For that reason, many other pollsters are using a mix of the 2021 and 2017 elections because they worry that relying just on 2021 might give the numbers a more Republican tint than we might actually see this year. If that’s so, then this poll might actually understate Spanberger’s lead while overstating Miyares’ advantage.

However, there are some suggestions that Republicans aren’t sitting idle this fall. Early voting numbers compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project show that early voting in some Republican areas through Wednesday is running ahead of the 2021 totals (particularly in Southwest Virginia) and some Democratic areas are running behind (particularly in Hampton Roads). That could explain why former President Barack Obama will be in Norfolk on Saturday to stump for Spanberger. What we don’t know, though, is whether this uptick in early voting (up 31.8% from this point four years ago) represents a true increase in turnout or whether early voting is simply cannibalizing voters from the traditional Election Day. All that is a long way of saying we don’t know what the electorate will look like this year, so none of us can say which models are right and which ones are off. I just want readers to understand all these numbers stand on different foundations, which is why I generally try to focus on overall trends and not a specific percentage. That brings us to this . . .

What the overall trends show

Every poll has shown Spanberger ahead, usually by a clear margin. None of the polls from nonpartisan pollsters — to whom I always give the most weight — show Spanberger suffering any damage from either Jones’ texting scandal or her debate performance. That’s not to suggest her debate performance was bad, just that it doesn’t seem to have moved voters. It certainly hasn’t helped Earle-Sears, who spent the evening trying to knock Spanberger off-balance with interruptions and direct questions.

Meanwhile, the attorney general’s race definitely has a new dynamic, with Jones dropping and Miyares pulling into the lead after the text message news broke.

As for the lieutenant governor’s race, it’s closer than it originally was. Now let’s take a closer look at each race.

Governor: Spanberger consistently leads the polls

To get the best picture, here’s a list of all the public polls I’m aware of since the Jones text messages broke. Most of these are nonpartisan pollsters, but Trafalgar and co/efficient are Republican firms. That doesn’t make them wrong; I’m just inherently wary about partisan polls. For instance, Trafalgar includes an independent who was never on the ballot and who has since endorsed Spanberger. That doesn’t feel right to me.

Because the Roanoke College poll is the most recent nonpartisan poll, that’s the one I’m going to focus on today. Also, Roanoke College has released more information about its numbers than Trafalgar has.

Because all these polls have different models, I don’t like comparing one to another, so let’s go back to Roanoke College’s previous poll in August to get a more valid comparison. That poll had Spanberger up 46% to 39%. From August to October, Spanberger has added five percentage points, Earle-Sears two. The fall campaign has helped Spanberger more than it’s helped Earle-Sears.

Lieutenant governor: This race may or may not be close

As I write this Thursday, Trafalgar had not yet released its numbers for the down-ballot races, so here all the others:

We see more variation here. Some polls give Hashmi a clear lead, others show Hashmi only slightly ahead and within the margin of error. That’s the case with the Roanoke College poll. In August, Roanoke College gave her a lead of 38% to 35%. Since then, the two candidates have picked up support at almost equal rates.

In the Roanoke College poll, Reid’s support is almost the same as his party’s candidate for governor while Hashmi is distinctly behind her party’s standard bearer. There are several possible explanations:

• Some Spanberger supporters are hesitant to back Hashmi for some reason.
• Some Spanberger supporters may simply not know who Hashmi is; she’s run a campaign almost devoid of attracting attention while Reid has been eager to put himself in front of every microphone and camera he can find.
• It’s possible that this race is the default between a generic Democratic and a generic Republican and it’s the governor’s race and attorney general’s races that are out of balance because Earle-Sears has simply run a terrible campaign and Jones has his texting troubles.

Attorney general: Jones’ text messages have cost him the lead and may cost him the election

Before the text message scandal, Jones led every poll. Since then, he’s only led in one — that State Navigate poll. Taken as a whole, these numbers might suggest that Miyares is building his lead, although ticket splitting has become so unusual that I’m wary of going too far here. It certainly seems clear that Jones has lost some support. The revelation of the text messages is an event that has clearly “broken through” into the public consciousness: 80% of those surveyed said they’d heard about them.

In August, the Roanoke College poll had this race as Jones 41%, Miyares 38%. Now Jones has lost support and Miyares has gained. What we don’t know here is how the undecideds will break. Are these Democratic voters who are reluctant to say they’re backing Jones but will “come home” in the end? Or will some potential Jones voters simply not vote? The Roanoke College poll found that support for Jones among Democrats had fallen; 98% of Democrats said they’re backing Spanberger, 83% say they’re with Hashmi but only 77% back Jones. At a campaign forum before the Salem Rotary on Thursday, Democratic House candidate Donna Littlepage — when asked about Jones — said, “I know a lot of people who aren’t voting at all in that race.”

One big question is whether the text message news broke too late, or right on time. On the day the news came out, about 300,000 early votes had already been cast. Roanoke College says that in its sample, early voters strongly prefer Jones — not a surprise, since Democrats have historically like early voting more than Republicans. Maybe that doesn’t matter: The Roanoke College poll asked those who had already voted if the text messages would have changed their mind; 87% said no, only 1% said they’d have switched to Miyares.

Now let’s look at some of the underlying factors that are moving voters.

Virginians still disapprove of Trump but attitudes are softening

Since 1977, Virginians have — with just one exception — elected a governor from the party other than the one in the White House. That trend should make this a Democratic year. One of the problems Republicans face is that Trump has been a dead weight for them. Virginians voted against him three straight times, and polls in the state consistently show his disapproval rate higher than his approval rate. No wonder Democrats often seem to be running against Trump more than they are their actual Republican opponents.

This Roanoke College poll suggests that Trump’s position in the state is actually improving. In May, 65% disapproved of the job he’s doing, his highest negative rating in the state ever. Now, Roanoke College finds Trump’s disapproval rate is down to 53%, while his approval rate has risen from 31% in May to 40% now. Trump is still “under water,” as the saying goes, but not as much as he was. These numbers will come as a surprise to Democrats who likely thought they’d be going the other direction.

This may explain some of the improved numbers we see for Republicans in the bottom two races, particularly the AG’s contest. Linking Miyares to Trump may not have had the salience it would have earlier this year.

Virginians just don’t like Earle-Sears

That’s harsh but that’s what the numbers show. Spanberger began the year with her favorables and unfavorables even in the Roanoke College poll. Now she’s on the plus side — 47% favorable, 42% unfavorable.

Earle-Sears, though, began the year unpopular and her campaign hasn’t changed that impression. In February, Roanoke College had her at 34% favorable, 39% unfavorable. Now she’s at 38% favorable, 45% unfavorable. It’s hard to win if people don’t like you but like your opponent.

Independents are breaking Spanberger, Hashmi, Miyares

All the polls have been consistent: Spanberger is winning independents. Roanoke Colleges say independents are going 55% for Spanberger, 32% for Earle-Sears.

In the lieutenant governor’s race, independents are 45% for Hashmi, 30% for Reid.

In the attorney general’s race, they’re 41% for Miyares, 37% for Jones.

This helps explain the overall numbers we see above: The Hashmi-Reid race is closer because she’s not winning independents at the same rate Spanberger is. Reid’s share is about the same as Earle-Sears, but Hashmi is definitely below Spanberger. Do independents just not know as much about Hashmi, or do they consider her too liberal? We don’t know.

Independents are the ones powering Miyares’ rise. In August, independents were 36% for Jones, 27% for Miyares. Jones’ share with independents hasn’t really changed but Miyares has surged. We don’t know for sure, but that would seem to be because of the text messages. The CNU poll earlier this week also showed Miyares gaining with independents.

Virginians like Youngkin, but that’s not helping Republicans

Virginians think the state is on “the right track” — 52% say yes. And they think well of their Republican governor — 50% have a favorable impression compared with 42% unfavorable. That’s the highest rating for Youngkin in the Roanoke College poll since August 2024. But that’s not translating into support for the Republican ticket. It’s hard to transfer popularity.

Earle-Sears is running on the wrong issues

Roanoke College asked supporters of each candidate what their most important issues were. The results seem telling. For Earle-Sears’ supporters, the top issue was immigration (24%), which is more of a federal matter than a state one. In second place was cost of living (22%), which she’s rarely mentioned. Instead, she’s focused on transgender policy, which only 6% of her own supporters say is their top concern.

For Spanberger supporters, 48% say their top concern is “threats to democracy.” Spanberger doesn’t really need to say anything about that; anytime she references Trump is sufficient. The second-biggest concern is cost of living, cited by 23%. Spanberger has focused almost her whole campaign on that.

I’m sure all that’s been poll-tested; that’s how campaigns work, which raises the question of why Earle-Sears has spent her campaign talking about an issue that doesn’t rank high even with her own supporters. It’s a mystery. We may never learn the answer to that, but come Tuesday night we should find out who our next governor will be.

For more on these candidates

All six candidates for statewide office, and many candidates for the House of Delegates and local offices, have responded to our issues questionnaire. You can see their answers on our Voter Guide.

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