If Abigail Spanberger wins the governorship and if Democrats retain the House of Delegates in November, Virginia will hold a unique distinction: It would be the only state in the top 10 of CNBC’s “top states for business” to be entirely under Democratic governance.
It would also be the only state in our peer group of competitor states in the Southeast to be under Democratic governance. All of the others are governed by Republicans, except for North Carolina, which currently has a Republican legislature but a Democratic governor.
Virginia would be an outlier, not just regionally, but nationally. At present, there are just 15 states entirely under Democratic control. Virginia would make 16. The others fall into three main groups — the Northeast, the West and Illinois, which itself is an outlier because it’s the last Midwestern state that’s predictably Democratic (either thank Chicago or blame Chicago, depending on your point of view).
A Democratic Virginia would create a fourth category, unless you were to consider such a state of affairs to be a sign of how Virginia is becoming more Northeastern and less Southern.
Does any of this matter?
That depends on what Democrats would do with their trifecta. (The state Senate, where Democrats hold a 21-19 edge, isn’t up for election this year). Today, let’s peer into our crystal ball and look at what a Democratic trifecta might do — and how that would position Virginia against other states. For this analysis, I’m only going to look at things that Democrats have said they would do, not things that Republicans warn they might do. This likely isn’t a comprehensive list, but I do hope to hit the highlights before your morning coffee runs out.
First, some important context: We’ve seen a Democratic trifecta in Virginia before, and it wasn’t that long ago — from 2020-2021 when Ralph Northam was governor, Eileen Filler-Corn was speaker of the House and Richard Saslaw was majority leader in the state Senate. All those figures are now gone from the political scene; a new Democratic trifecta would have Abigail Spanberger in the governor’s chair, Don Scott presiding as speaker of the House and Scott Surovell leading the Democrats in the state Senate. That previous Democratic trifecta passed the Virginia Clean Economy Act, legalized possession of small amounts of cannabis, expanded early voting to almost the biggest voting window in the country and enacted its “red flag” laws to allow law enforcement to temporarily seize firearms from someone deemed a threat to themselves and others — all legislation that Democrats considered landmark achievements and which Republicans generally saw as bad policy decisions. That means there’s precedent for a Democratic trifecta to enact a lot of new laws. Let’s see how some of those would position Virginia:
Abortion
Virginia is the only state in the South that, in the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, has not passed some kind of restrictions on abortion. Otherwise, the most Southern state with the most liberal abortion law is North Carolina, which bans the procedure after 12 weeks. Some Southern states have banned abortion entirely, or nearly so.
Virginia is partway through the process of amending its state constitution to move in the opposite direction — and guarantee the right to an abortion. The amendment will come up in next year’s General Assembly. If it passes, as Democrats want it to, the measure would then go to a voter referendum in November 2026. If successful, Virginia would be the only Southern state with a legal guarantee of access to abortion in its state constitution.
Cannabis
Virginia is currently the only Southern state that allows “recreational cannabis” — and then only for small amounts. What Virginia doesn’t allow is the retail sale of cannabis. That puts the commonwealth in a gray area — weed is legal to have, but you can’t buy it or sell it. (We’re just talking here about “recreational” pot, not medical marijuana). Virginia’s the only state in the country in that gray area. That’s part of what’s allowed rogue weed shops to pop up, especially in Southwest Virginia. Law enforcement has more or less given up on enforcing marijuana laws, and many consumers are confused, thinking it’s legal to buy what otherwise is a legal commodity. The Democratic General Assembly has twice passed bills to legalize retail sales, only to have Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin veto the measures. Spanberger has said she’d sign a legalization bill. With that in mind, the General Assembly has created a commission to start looking at what the rules might be.
With a Democratic trifecta in governorship and General Assembly, we’d have legal weed sales — the only state in the South with that distinction. We’ve already seen multiple unlicensed shops pop up in Scott County, along the Tennessee line. It seems a safe bet that with legal weed, we’d see legal stores want to locate near the state’s southern border to take advantage of out-of-state consumers.
Carbon emissions
Only two Southern states — Virginia and North Carolina — have laws that set targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Louisiana has a target that’s set through gubernatorial action. That won’t change under a Democratic trifecta. What would change is that Democrats have vowed to return Virginia to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative that Youngkin withdrew from (over objections from Democrats who said he didn’t have that power. RGGI — “Reggie,” as it’s called — is a carbon-pricing system that, depending on your point of view, either discourages carbon-based forms of energy while generating revenue or drives up the cost of power. In any case, Virginia would be the only Southern state that is part of this system.
Gun laws
Democrats want to prohibit the sale of high-capacity magazines. If so, Virginia would be the only Southern state to do so.
Minimum wage
Virginia presently has the second-highest minimum wage in the South — $12.41 per hour, behind only Florida at $13 per hour. In most other Southern states, it’s $7.25.
Democrats have vowed to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour. That would put Virginia at twice the rate in three neighboring states — Kentucky, North Carolina and Tennessee.
Right-to-work
Allegiance to the state’s “right-to-work” law — which forbids compulsory payment of union dues if there’s a union in the workplace — has been an article of faith in Virginia since it was passed in 1947. No longer. Democrats today generally support repealing right-to-work. Spanberger has said she opposes a “full repeal” but hasn’t spelled out what a partial repeal would look like.
If Virginia were to repeal right-to-work, it would be the only Southern state without such a law — a distinction that Republicans say would put the state at a competitive disadvantage. For what it’s worth, three of CNBC’s top 10 states for business don’t have right-to-work laws: Ohio (5), Michigan (6) and Minnesota (10).
Whether these policies are good or bad is a matter of political taste, but these are indirectly some of the distinctions Virginians will be voting on this fall.
Where the candidates stand
All six candidates for statewide office, and many candidates for the House of Delegates and local offices, have responded to our issues questionnaire. You can see their answers on our Voter Guide.
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