We now have the first nonpartisan polls since the news about Jay Jones’ text messages broke, and they show two different things.
A Virginia Commonwealth University poll finds all three statewide races tightening, with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger holding a reduced lead of 7 percentage points but the contests for lieutenant governor and attorney general now within the margin of error.
A poll by State Navigate, a new nonprofit founded to provide political data, shows all three Democrats leading, with Spanberger stretching her lead to 13 percentage points, the biggest margin recorded yet.
The differences between these polls go well beyond their numbers. To understand what they show, and why it’s so different, requires us to delve into methodology.
The VCU poll was conducted Oct. 6-14, so after the news about Jones’ text messages (in which he fantasized about shooting then-Speaker of the House Todd Gilbert). The polling window also overlapped with the Oct. 9 gubernatorial candidate debate but closed before the Oct. 16 debate between Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares and Jones, his Democratic challenger.
The State Navigate poll was in the field Oct. 17-20, after all those events.
The bigger difference is how the two polls were put together. The VCU poll — like many other polls this year — is weighted to reflect the 2021 gubernatorial election. That was also a good year for Republicans, so this may produce more favorable Republican result. The State Navigate poll was weighted between the 2017 and 2021 elections, which produces a polling sample more favorable to Democrats.
This isn’t a situation of one poll being “biased,” it’s a matter of which polling methodology does the best job of predicting what this year’s electorate will look like. The 2021 election saw an elevated Republican turnout — that’s how Republicans swept all three statewide races. Are we likely to see that again this year? Or, with President Donald Trump back in the White House, are we likely to see a turnout more like what we saw in 2017, which came in Trump’s first year in office and saw a big Democratic backlash? State Navigate foresees an electorate somewhere between those two years — less Republican as 2021 but not as Democratic as 2017.
These two polls also come against the backdrop of several partisan polls that have come out recently. I tend to discount partisan polls for the obvious reasons. They could well be right, but they still make me queasy. That’s why I prefer nonpartisan polls, because I at least have the assurance of knowing they don’t care what the results are. Still, those polls are out there, and they do allow us to put these nonpartisan polls in context. I’m going to walk us through the races and then try to draw some conclusions as to the state of race, which is now (eek!) less than two weeks from Election Day.
Governor: Abgail Spanberger (D) vs. Winsome Earle-Sears (R)
Democrat Abigail Spanberger has consistently led Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, even in Republican-affiliated polls.
Here’s what the VCU numbers show:
July: Spanberger 49.1%, Earle-Sears 37.1%
September: Spanberger 48.6%, Earle-Sears 40.3%.
October: Spanberger 49.2%, Earle-Sears 42.1%
What we see is that Spanberger’s numbers have been very consistent (critics might say “stalled out”) since mid-summer, while Earle-Sears have been edging upward, as she’s cut a deficit of 12 percentage point to 7.1 percentage points.
The polling window for this survey overlapped last week’s gubernatorial debate, the only one scheduled, so we don’t have a clear picture yet of what impact, if any, that had.
By contrast, the State Navigate poll shows Spanberger leading 55% to 42%.
State Navigate founder Chaz Nuttycombe (a Virginia Tech graduate) says his poll dispenses with decimal points because he doesn’t think they make much sense, given the margin of error that any poll has. This is the first statewide poll State Navigate has done, so we don’t have previous numbers to compare it with — but the largest margin that any poll has shown for Spanberger is 12 percentage points, so this is the biggest yet.
The State Navigate numbers are more in line with the results of the Clarity Campaign Labs poll released by the Democratic Attorney Generals Association that shows Spanberger with a lead of 10 percentage points. That poll says it’s modeled on a “likely 2025 Virginia electorate” without saying what exactly that is — but certainly not a 2021 electorate. The poll by the Republican pollster co/efficient (which doesn’t believe in capitalization) doesn’t say what its model looks like, but it sees Spanberger with a lead of 2 percent points — within the margin of error.
Again, none of these polls are wrong; they’re all true to their samples and methodologies. The question is which pollster does the best job predicting the shape of this year’s electorate?
One factor in both of the nonpartisan polls that came out Tuesday: Spanberger leads among independents. VCU said independents back the Democrat 35.0% to 24.2%. State Navigate showed a much wider margin among independents, with Spanberger winning 72% to 17%. The big difference there relates to how each poll defines independents; it’s not as simple as you might think because some voters say they’re independents when they’re really not. State Navigate tries to weed out those shy partisans and distill the group down to true independents. Either way, it’s very hard for a candidate to win a statewide race if they’re not winning independents, no matter how they’re defined..
The State Navigate poll doesn’t offer much hope to Earle-Sears for day-of voters: “Spanberger’s lead narrows among those who have not yet voted, but among voters who say they are definitely or probably voting, she maintains a 54 to 45 lead.”
Lieutenant Governor: Ghazala Hashmi (D) vs. John Reid (R)
This race is either tied or a blow-out, depending on who votes.
The VCU numbers show Hashmi began with a clear lead, but that has now disappeared. The Commonwealth Poll, as VCU’s survey is called, shows Hashmi’s numbers slipping slightly, although the difference between her July numbers and her October numbers may not be statistically important. Sill, they’re not as rock-steady as Spanberger’s are. Meanwhile, Reid has been rising. In the Commonwealth poll, this race was within the margin of error in September; it’s really within the margin of error now.
July: Hashmi 46.5%, Reid 36.3%
September: Hashmi 44.5%, Reid 41.3%
October: Hashmi 44.0%, Reid 43.0%
Those October numbers are exactly in line with what the co/efficient poll shows, so if you want either partisan verification of the VCU poll, or nonpartisan verification of a partisan poll, there it is. The Clarity Campaign Labs poll gave Hashmi a lead of 4 percentage points, so even a Democratic pollster shows the LG’s race is closer than the governor’s race.
By contrast, State Navigate finds the lieutenant governor’s race almost in line with the governor’s race: Hashmi 53%, Reid 42%.
One difference between the two polls: VCU shows independents split, with 28.2% favoring Hashmi, 27.0% favoring Reid. State Navigate finds independents more in line with the governor’s race, backing Hashmi 57% to 25%.
Regardless of which poll winds up being close to the eventual results, the main theme in this race is Reid has virtually no money, at least in terms of what’s expected for a statewide race. In the most recent campaign finance reports, 16 candidates for the House of Delegates raised more money than he did — and each of them is running to represent just 1% of the state’s population, he’s facing all 100%. What would this race be like if Reid had more money? Likewise, what would it be like if Hashmi agreed to debate Reid, something she’s studiously avoided? We can only guess.
Attorney general: Jay Jones (D) vs. Jason Miyares (R)
Now we come to what everyone has been waiting for: What effect have Jones’ text messages had on the attorney general’s race? Here’s what the VCU numbers show — and keep in mind this poll was taken after the text messages broke but before last week’s debate between the two attorney general candidates:
July: Jones 47.1%, Miyares 38.1%
September: Jones 46.7%, Miyares 41.4%
October: Miyares 45.3%, Jones 42.2%
What we see is that Jones’ numbers were pretty consistent through July and September, then dropped in October, while Miyares’ numbers have been steadily rising, with the biggest number from September to October.
Since July, Jones is down 4.9 percentage points while Miyares is up 7.2 percentage points. This roughly matches other polling. The Republican co/efficient poll showed Miyares up 4 percentage points; the Democratic Clarity Campaign Labs poll shows it tied. Big picture: All those are within the margin of error, so maybe all are saying the same thing: The Democratic candidate leads the governor’s race but the campaigns for lieutenant governor and attorney general are essentially tied — but for different reasons.
State Navigate — the only poll that reflects both debates — shows a tighter race but still one where the Democrat leads, despite his recent troubles: Jones 50%, Miyares 45%.
That’s closer than State Navigate shows the other two races to be. That could be a by-product of the text messages, although this always seemed likely to be the tightest race, simply because Miyares is an incumbent. Miyares is also better funded than even his party’s candidate for governor; that’s highly unusual.
VCU find independents breaking almost evenly, with 31.9% going for Jones, 29.2% for Miyares. State Navigate shows Jones with a 17 percentage point lead, much smaller than the huge advantages it found for Spanberger and Hashmi.
Overall, the State Navigate summary says Jones is underperforming among Democrats: “Less than 1 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters say they did/will vote for Sears, and just 2 percent say they did/will vote for Reid, but 5 percent say they did/will vote for Miyares. Moreover, fewer voters say they are definitely in Jones’ camp: 36 percent say they will definitely vote for Jones, compared with 49 percent for Spanberger and 42 percent for Hashmi.”
Whether that’s because of the text messages or something else, we don’t know.
The State Navigate poll also had this intriguing set of numbers: “Jones’ lead is buoyed by those who have already voted, who say that they voted for him by 18 percentage points. Among those who say they are definitely voting, but have not yet cast a ballot, Jones’ lead falls to 1 percentage point, and among those who say they are probably voting, Miyares leads by 9.” Based on that, Miyares would seem to benefit more than Jones from a bigger turnout.
More insight from the State Navigate poll
President Donald Trump is unpopular in Virginia. That’s hardly new; we’ve seen that in other polls. We also saw it in three straight presidential elections. State Navigate puts Trump’s disapproval rating in Virginia at 59%, his approval rating at 40%. This is why Democrats are speeding so much of their time trying to link their Republican opponents to Trump.
Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is more popular but with a less Republican sample than others, Younkin falls in the State Navigate poll. This survey finds 46% of Virginians approve of Youngkin, 47% disapprove. That may be the first poll I’ve seen that didn’t find Youngkin’s approval rating outweighing his disapprovals.
So which of these polls comes closest to what will happen? That really depends on you, the voter, and how many of you cast ballots and for whom. A cliché, I know, but it’s also true.
If you want to know more about where these candidates stand, see our Voter Guide.
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