When Tropical Storm Chantal came ashore in South Carolina way back on July 6, dumping historic rainfall on central North Carolina that leaked across the Virginia state line into southern Halifax County, there might have been good reason to grimace and groan thinking another rough tropical season might be upcoming that could again leave its mark far inland, especially with last year’s Hurricane Helene catastrophe fresh on our minds.
But this Atlantic hurricane season has been nothing of the sort.
It’s not like it’s been a particularly inactive tropical season in the North Atlantic basin. We have reached the “L” name for the 12th warm-core, closed circulation storm with 39 mph or greater sustained winds around its center, and there have been four hurricanes (requires 74 mph sustained winds), including Category 5 monster Hurricane Humberto.
Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed early this week, halfway to Africa, with a strong possibility it never intensifies into a hurricane and no expectation it ever gets anywhere close to a large land mass.
Lorenzo’s forecast curve north and eastward is emblematic of what has happened to just about every tropical season that has formed from August to October.
Recurring low-pressure troughing over the eastern U.S. and the position of high-pressure systems over the Atlantic Ocean and eastern Canada have kept tropical systems from reaching the East Coast and curved them out to sea.
Once our summer heat caved in to start August, with even deeper cooling toward late August and early September, that was an indicator of broader atmospheric shifts that have kept tropical systems away through the historic peak weeks in this 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
It was the first time in 10 years that no hurricane made a U.S. landfall in September.
While that 2015 season ended up going the distance without any U.S. landfalling hurricanes, some caution is warranted that the Atlantic hurricane season is not over.
The U.S. has experienced notable hurricanes in November. We are about to reach the 40th anniversary of the deadly and destructive impact of extreme flooding across much of Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia region related to the remnants of Hurricane Juan in the first week of November, and it wasn’t even the last hurricane to come ashore in the U.S. that season — Hurricane Kate struck the Florida Panhandle three weeks deep into November. Hurricane Nicole struck Florida and brought a stripe of rain over us as recently as 2022.
But at this point in time, there is nothing that would indicate a tropical system that would affect the U.S. or could possibly directly affect our region on its inland course is even a remote possibility for at least the next 7-10 days. Maybe something could develop in the Caribbean near the end of that period, but that’s iffy, and it would be several days from any potential effect on the continental U.S.
That would take us into late October, when the potential for tropical systems, especially U.S. landfall storms, typically begins to decline pretty rapidly.
Coastal surge problems
Some folks on the Outer Banks of North Carolina and other vulnerable Eastern Seaboard beaches could tell you that, while there haven’t been hurricanes, there have been plenty of surging waves.
Offshore storms over the past couple of weeks have barraged the North Carolina Outer Banks, with raging seas swallowing at least nine houses.
Two weeks ago, it was the double offshore whammy of hurricanes Humberto and Imelda. As Humberto steamed well east, briefly reaching Category 5 strength, Imelda formed in the Bahamas and for a time at least hinted that it might become the first U.S. landfalling hurricane of the season. But Humberto’s influence and the prevailing pattern halted Imelda’s northwest trek and pulled it out to sea, eventually becoming the dominant partner of tropical tango and absorbing Humberto’s remnants.
Still, having two hurricanes off the coast churned high seas into the Outer Banks, eating a few high-stilted homes once built seemingly safely away from shore when the ocean was a little cooler and a little lower.
Over the past few days, a strong coastal low-pressure system that has morphed into a double-barrel low has brought more house-threatening high seas into the Outer Banks, plus flooding rain that inundated parts of coastal South Carolina.
Our region experienced breezy coolness, waves of clouds and some light rain bands, mostly along and east of the Blue Ridge, on the backside of this coastal storm, now slowly pulling away.
The Outer Banks of North Carolina, while a favorite vacation destination for many, have long been a target for high seas even when conditions are relatively benign on other parts of the East Coast, separated from the mainland of the Carolinas and jutting eastward.
There is a reason the area just offshore has been called “the graveyard of the Atlantic,” with many ships having borne the brunt of stormy waves for centuries and been deposited on the ocean floor.
Non-tropical “nor’easter” storm systems often prove to be as bad or worse than many hurricanes affecting the area, as strong winds commonly cover a larger area and last longer, and hurricanes and other large storm systems passing hundreds of miles offshore can still stir dangerous waves. Higher ocean levels related to global climate warming have exacerbated the problem in recent years.
Always beware of the potential for high surf and rip currents if you visit the Outer Banks or any other East Coast beach area, even if the sun is shining and any threatening storm systems are hundreds of miles offshore.
More dry weather ahead
Without the influence of tropical systems, nothing else in the weather pattern has stepped forward for regular rainfall, and most of our region continues to persist in “abnormally dry” to “moderate drought” conditions in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.
Not many locations east of the I-77 corridor have had more than a quarter inch of rain halfway through October, and locations to the west in the southwest corner have mostly had less than an inch as a heavy rainmaker slid northwest late last week.
This week will continue the dry pattern, with warm afternoons in the 70s common.
A cold front on Wednesday will reinforce the dry air but also bring some chilly mornings, perhaps 30s to near 40 by Friday morning, maybe some scattered frost. Another cold front approaching over the weekend may lift enough moisture ahead of it for a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday, but widespread soaking rain looks doubtful.
There are some hints that the weather pattern across the U.S. may become more active with more ripples in the jet stream and storm systems traversing the U.S. late in the month into early November, but this is vague and iffy this far out.
Overall, in the foreseeable future of the next 7-10 days, the weather for Southwest and Southside Virginia looks likely to tilt a bit warm and considerably dry compared to mid-late October norms, but not any kind of record-challenging heat, with some chilly mornings.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:
