As television spectacles go, gubernatorial debates probably rank right down there with those “Call now, operators are standing by!” infomercials you see at odd hours.
I’ve been a panelist on two statewide debates, and while I remember carefully wordsmithing what I’m sure I thought were incisive questions at the time, none of them produced a memorable response. Candidates are skilled at not answering the question and pivoting to whatever talking points they’ve rehearsed.
The only gaffe of any consequence during a gubernatorial debate — the political definition of a gaffe is when a candidate admits the truth — came four years ago when Democrat Terry McAuliffe declared, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” The political impact of that came not from whatever small audience was watching the debate but from the millions of dollars that Republican Glenn Youngkin spent to turn McAuliffe’s own words into a television ad against him.
We used to have multiple debates in a gubernatorial campaign. This year, they’ve shrunk to just one, which will take place tonight at 7 p.m. at Norfolk State University and will be shown on seven Nexstar stations and digital platforms across Virginia: WAVY in Portsmouth, WRIC in Richmond, WFXR in Roanoke, WDVM/WDCW in Washington and WJHL/EJHL in the Bristol area.
It’s possible, even likely, that this debate will be more important than most because it comes less than a week after the news broke about the text messages that Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones sent in which he fantasized about shooting the then-Republican Speaker of the House Todd Gilbert and, in a separate phone call, allegedly said that he hoped one of Gilbert’s children would die so the lawmaker could feel pain. In a follow-up text message, Jones wrote: “Yes, I’ve told you this before. Only when people feel pain personally do they move on policy.”
Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic candidate for governor, swiftly condemned Jones’ texts (and he apologized). However, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears has now made these texts the centerpiece of her campaign, pointing out that Spanberger stopped short of calling on Jones to quit the race. It seems almost certain that Spanberger will get at least one question about this from the moderators tonight — Tom Schaad of WAVY and Deanna Allbrittin of WRIC — and that Earle-Sears will press the point as many times as possible. With that setup, here are five things to look for, both in this debate and the coming week.
1. How will Spanberger handle questions about Jones? And what will voters think?
Political candidates today are more insulated from prying journalists than they used to be. I blame social media. Nowadays, candidates can take to social media and give the impression that they’re interacting directly with voters — and thereby subject themselves to fewer events where journalists will show up and ask them awkward questions. That’s one value of debates: For their time on stage, the candidates will have to come up with some answer, no matter how evasive, to whatever is put to them.
We know what Spanberger’s written statement has been: “After learning of these comments earlier today, I spoke frankly with Jay about my disgust with what he had said and texted. I made clear to Jay that he must fully take responsibility for his words. What I have also made clear is that as a candidate — and as the next Governor of our Commonwealth, I will always condemn violent language in our politics.” What we don’t know is how she will respond when she’s pressed, as I assume she will be, on why she’s not calling for Jones to drop out.
Spanberger has run a disciplined campaign so far that has never strayed off-message. I would expect an equally disciplined response tonight — we just don’t know what else it will say or, more critically, what voters will make of all this. Will they transfer any negative feelings they might now have about Jones to Spanberger or not?
Democrats are in something of a bind on the question of whether Jones should drop out, but both sides understand quite well that this simply will not happen. From a practical point of view, it’s too late to replace Jones on the ballot. Voting is already underway. By the time you read this, more than 400,000 votes will have been cast (the statewide count was at 389,015 as I type these words).
Even if Democrats did want to nominate a new candidate, Jones has no real incentive to quit — the polls consistently show him ahead. He might well think he can tough it out, and he might be right. Even if he did quit, Democrats would have to nominate a new candidate (that will take time, during which more votes will be cast), and then they’d have to promote a write-in candidate. The odds of that happening are the same as those of a unicorn prancing through my backyard. To do any of that is to surrender an office that Jones still might win. From a political standpoint, Democrats are not going to force their only Black candidate off the ticket, not when Black voters are their most loyal constituency.
Nonetheless, most Republicans are going to keep asking why Spanberger isn’t calling on Jones to drop out. Notably, Jones’ own opponent, Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares, hasn’t called for Jones to drop out. Politically, he might be better off with Jones as a foil than some hypothetical substitute candidate. Spanberger could say she’s taking the same position that Miyares is — let the voters decide — although that’s a risky answer. All the possible answers are risky to some degree.
However, Spanberger will need some kind of answer, whatever it might be. Then we’ll wait to see what voters think, and how they weigh that against other issues. Virginia Commonwealth University has a poll in the field right now, so we’ll get an early reading from that, or any other polls that might be out there.
2. What will voters make of Earle-Sears’ personality?
Earle-Sears has what might be gently described as a combative personality. Some people like that sort of thing; some don’t. The weight of opinion currently seems to be on the “don’t” side. The three most recent polls — from Emerson College, Christopher Newport University and The Washington Post/The Schar School — all show that Earle-Sears has higher unfavorable ratings than favorable ones. I don’t mean to be blunt, but the polls show that Virginians just don’t like her. By contrast, Spanberger always scores in the favorable range. Spanberger’s most recent TV ads start with a particularly unflattering video clip of Earle-Sears shouting down hecklers at the 2024 Labor Day event in Buena Vista: “I’m speaking!”
This is a problem for Earle-Sears, and her circumstances make it more so. She’s behind in the polls, so she has to press the attack on Spanberger to try to raise the Democrats’ unfavorable ratings. What will voters think when a candidate they don’t like anyway is on the attack?
The challenge for Earle-Sears gets steeper. The CNU poll produced results I’ve never seen: On 11 issues — even ones where Republicans traditionally have the advantage, such as crime and taxes — voters prefer Spanberger. Issue-wise, nothing is working for Earle-Sears. Not even the transgender issue, which she was pushing until the Jones texts broke. That’s where Jones’ texts come in: Here’s another issue that Earle-Sears can try, but the only way to use it is to go on the attack. The debate is also one of the few opportunities she will have to change the general trajectory of the campaign. All Spanberger has to do is get through the debate without making a mistake; Earle-Sears has to do something to disrupt Spanberger, and Jones’ texts are the obvious way to do that.
The risk for Spanberger is that she gives answers that voters won’t like; the risk for Earle-Sears is that voters may not like how she’s asking the question (and may not blame Spanberger at all). However, right now, it’s all Earle-Sears seems to have — and it’s potentially a strong issue. In May 1864, Gen. Ulysses Grant told Secretary of War Edwin Stanton: “I propose to fight it out on this line if it takes all summer.” Republicans will fight the rest of the campaign over Jones’ texts, while Democrats will double down on President Donald Trump’s policies.
3. Will we get any insights on policy?
Don’t count on it. I’ve been pressing this point in multiple columns — how little we know about each candidates’ plans.
Spanberger at least gives some hint as to the flavor of what a Spanberger administration would do: She wants the state to give advice (but not mandates) to localities on both data centers and solar energy. She wants more distributed solar power — aka rooftop solar — to help relieve pressure on rural areas. Depending on your views on those issues, you have something to vote for or against.
While we might know little about where Spanberger stands on key policy details, we have almost no idea where Earle-Sears stands. She rarely gives interviews or addresses key business groups and has no formal position papers. (Example: Spanberger spoke to the Virginia Trucking Association’s annual convention and used the occasion to reiterate her support for a proposed inland port in Southwest Virginia. Earle-Sears said she couldn’t make it, even though she was in the same town for a fundraiser while the convention took place.) She is running a campaign like no other I’ve ever seen in Virginia. This debate may be the longest period of time Earle-Sears has faced questions in public. Unfortunately, debates aren’t known for being good venues to discuss policy beyond superficial soundbites.
4. Will Hashmi face any pressure to debate Reid?
Ghazala Hashmi, the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, has made it clear she has no interest in debating her Republican opponent, John Reid. Will she suffer for that? Based on the latest polling, she hasn’t yet. Candidates who are ahead see debates as a potential liability, so Hashmi’s decision is quite sound from a strategic point of view. From a civic point of view, it’s less defensible. The campaign will apparently pass without voters having an opportunity to see Hashmi and Reid answer questions side by side (although you can, at least, see how they answered our questions in our Voter Guide).
5. When will Jones resurface, and what will he say?
The only statewide candidate doing heavy-duty retail politicking — showing up at fairs, festivals, other events — is Reid. He also doesn’t have much money. Instead, much of the campaign has now moved online. Jones’ campaign was typical — posting multiple messages almost every day on social media. When the text messages broke, his social media accounts went silent for three days. Even then, his sole post on the fourth day was to extend condolences to a state legislator. Not until Tuesday did he resume normal political posts, carrying on the same theme he did before, that Miyares is too close to Trump: “One week into Trump’s shutdown and he’s threatening to cut off pay for Virginia’s furloughed workers — and @JasonMiyares hasn’t lifted a finger to protect them. VA deserves an AG who will fight for our workforce, not one too afraid to stand up to Trump.”
It looks as if the attorney general’s race from here on out is going to be Texts vs. Trump even more so than the governor’s race. As with all these questions, we’ll eventually find out what voters think.
Jones has done one interview since the news broke, with WRIC-TV in Richmond. At some point, he’ll have to do others, right? He won’t be able to avoid all questions. A week from tonight, Jones is scheduled to debate Miyares before the Virginia Bar Association. How will he handle that then? It seems fair to say that debate will be the most-watched Virginia attorney general’s debate of all time. As someone who would like to see more people paying attention to public policy, that’s not a bad thing, even if the circumstances are.
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