On Sept. 26, 2021, both Roanoke College and Monmouth University completed separate polls. Both showed Democrat Terry McAuliffe leading Republican Glenn Youngkin by 7 percentage points in that year’s governor’s race. Two nights later, the two candidates stepped onto a debate stage at Northern Virginia Community College. By the time they stepped off, McAuliffe had declared: “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” Youngkin took that line and ran on it the rest of the way. McAuliffe never did lead by that much again in polls of likely voters and by election night, he didn’t lead at all.
Maybe Youngkin would have won anyway, but that one event certainly changed the tenor of the campaign.
Four years later, we’re in another governor’s race. Democrat Abigail Spanberger consistently leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in polls from established pollsters, with margins ranging from 7 percentage points (Roanoke College, in late August) to 12 percentage points (Christopher Newport, Virginia Commonwealth University and the Washington Post-Schar School more recently). Those polls have found the Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general with smaller leads, but still ahead.
All those polls came before Friday’s revelation that Jay Jones, the Democratic candidate for attorney general, had once sent texts to a Republican legislator in which he fantasized about shooting then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert. Is this the event that Republicans have been hoping for that will change the dynamics of a campaign that doesn’t seem to be going their way? Republicans certainly hope so and will now do their best to make Jones a liability for every Democrat on the ticket. It’s far too early yet to know whether that will work, but we can still review what we know and what we don’t.
1. Is this a fatal blow for Jones?
That depends on a) how seriously people take Jones’ texts and b) how they weigh those against other factors that might go into their decision on who to vote for in the attorney general’s race between Jones and Republican incumbent Jason Miyares.
There are two competing forces at play: We’re in a partisan era where there’s less ticket-splitting; we haven’t had a split result in Virginia in 20 years. On the other hand, in the polls that have asked about the lower-ballot races, the attorney general’s contest has been much closer than the top of the ticket. The freshest poll, from The Washington Post and the Schar School at George Mason University, show Jones with a lead of 6 percentage points, half that of what Spanberger has — so it would take less to change those dynamics than it would the governor’s race.
Toward the end of the 2016 presidential race, it was revealed that Donald Trump had made comments about grabbing women’s bodies that could have been disqualifying — but many voters had already made up their minds about the candidates and nothing was really going to change them. By contrast, far fewer people know anything about Jones, so opinions may be less firmly held. The most recent Christopher Newport University poll found that, when asked to give a favorable or unfavorable ranking of Jones, 39% had no opinion. That’s twice as many as those who had no opinion yet of the candidates for governor. That suggests there are many people whose opinions can be swayed.
Miyares has the resources to do that. At the end of August, Miyares had about $7 million in the bank, Jones just under $3.75 million. Unless that gap has closed since then — and we won’t know until Oct. 15 — Miyares will have more resources available with which to tell voters about Jones’ texts. Right now, it’s safe to say that anyone in Virginia who is following politics knows about them. The general public probably doesn’t; Virginians are out living their lives and not hanging on every twist in the campaign — but if they don’t know yet, they’re about to. Jones has devoted his campaign to tying Miyares to President Trump; will voter antipathy toward Trump outweigh however voters feel about Jones’ texts?
2. What impact — if any — will this have on other Democratic candidates?
Spanberger was quick to put out a strong statement in which she said “I spoke frankly with Jay about my disgust with what he had said and texted.” Earle-Sears said that wasn’t enough, because Spanberger didn’t call on Jones to quit the race. There are lots of reasons why she can’t do that — the most practical of which is that voting is already underway. Even if Democrats wanted to push Jones off the ticket, he’d remain on the ballot. They’re stuck with him. They’ll just have to tough it out.
At this point, we have no way of knowing whether the damage will be confined to Jones or spread to other Democratic candidates. Nonetheless, it’s clear that Republicans up and down the ticket will now make Jones a centerpiece of their campaigns. Politically speaking, Jones’ texts are a gift to every Republican candidate in the state. Already, Earle-Sears has produced an ad using these text to attack Spanberger. “Reject the insanity. Vote Republican,” it says.
3. Will Democrats distance themselves from Jones?
At least one Democratic House candidate has — Rise Marie Hayes in Lynchburg, although her race against Republican incumbent Wendell Walker is not considered a particularly competitive one. In a post on Facebook, Hayes said: “I regret my vote. I can’t change it, but if I had known this information, he would have never gotten my support.” She also said she was withdrawing from an upcoming fundraiser for Jones in protest.
One thing to look for is whether we see Democratic candidates — from Spanberger on down — avoiding appearances with Jones. This will be hard to measure at the statewide level because the candidates generally campaign separately, although in the final days it’s often traditional for the whole ticket to appear together. In the meantime, we’ll need to look to see if House candidates join Jones or not.
4. Will Jones’ texts energize Republican voters?
We’ve seen some polling that has found Republican voters were less enthusiastic this year than their Democratic counterparts. That often happens the year after a presidential election — the winning side gets complacent, the losing side is eager to turn things around. A gubernatorial candidate who hasn’t had much to say has only exacerbated the problem for Republicans; not to mention Youngkin’s early attempt to push lieutenant governor candidate John Reid off the ticket. The polls I’m referencing also came before the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. There was speculation then whether that would energize Republican voters. Some surely were, although I’m not sure how much the general public was aware of who Kirk was. The Jones texts are different because they involve a candidate — a candidate for a law enforcement-related position — and involve people that many Virginians know. They also come to light after Kirk was killed, so while Jones may have meant all this as a dark joke in 2022, people today may not be in a forgiving mood when it comes to a politician joking about killing someone in the other party. Whether it’s Kirk or the slain state legislator in Minnesota, we have actual examples of political figures being killed. We also have two sitting Republican legislators in Virginia (Kim Taylor in Petersburg, Geary Higgins in Loudoun County) who have received death threats; police have made arrests in both cases. I don’t know to what extent these texts are energizing, but I’d wager they are more energizing than the Kirk killing.
5. How will this change the two upcoming debates?
The candidates for governor are slated to hold their only debate on Thursday; the candidates for attorney general will have one Oct. 16. (Hashmi has made it clear she has no interest in debating Reid). The interest in both debates is now likely elevated, and there can be no doubt that the candidates will have to talk about these texts. Spanberger may be able to deflect Earle-Sears’ attack lines by pointing to her “disgust” statement, but Jones will have to address these texts more directly. A challenger is, by definition, on the offensive, but he’ll begin this debate on the defensive.
6. What can Jones do to overcome this?
If voters don’t seem concerned, and aren’t moved by all the Republican ads that are now coming, then Jones is clear. If voters instantly make up their minds that Jones isn’t fit for office, there may be nothing he can do. The key is how many have doubts and want to be assured that this wasn’t just some odd blip in Jones’ character. The Washington Post editorial board likely had these voters in mind when it wrote: “Jones has a month to convince voters that his hateful rhetoric does not reflect how he’d behave if elected as attorney general.” How can he do this? His upcoming debate appearance gives him one obvious venue in which to express contrition and demonstrate that he has the maturity to be entrusted with a serious office. But will that be enough? Can he — should he — just try to ignore this and power on? If he wanted to do something more, what could he do?
That’s more unclear. When the infamous “blackface” photo on then-Gov. Ralph Northam’s medical school yearbook was revealed, Northam had the means with which to show he wasn’t a racist — he made a point of supporting lots of legislation of interest to Black Virginians. Jones isn’t in office, so doesn’t have that opportunity.
7. What do these texts reveal about Jones’ view of the world?
Fantasizing about shooting a fellow politician is pretty bad. So is wishing his child would die so he could feel pain. No one, though, really thinks Jones meant those texts as a serious threat to take up arms. The more I look at Jones’ texts, the more I’m drawn to how he said that Gilbert was “breeding little fascists.” Gilbert was undoubtedly conservative, but he wasn’t a fascist — otherwise Virginia’s two Democratic senators wouldn’t have recommended him for U.S. attorney. Is Jones so far left that he sees ordinary Republicans as fascists? That is not a position that can be taken seriously. What does that say about Jones’ ability to work with Republicans if he’s elected? What does that say about how Jones views roughly half of Virginians who have voted for Republican candidates? How can they know that Jones would respect them and not regard them as fascists, too?
There are real fascists in the world. We saw some of them march through Charlottesville eight years ago. To conflate those dangerous clowns with Gilbert or any other Republican member of the General Assembly suggests that either Jones is given to hyperventilating rhetoric or simply can’t distinguish anything to the right of his own positions. The former merits a “come on, man” response; the latter raises questions about how well Jones understands reality. I put this in the same category as some online commenters I see who refer to all Democrats as Marxists. People who say things like that can’t be taken seriously, but they’re also not running for attorney general, a powerful position that requires discernment.
Even beyond the “fascist” remark, Jones called Gilbert “evil.” Gilbert and other Republicans might be wrong — that’s a matter of political taste. For that matter, Democrats might be wrong, too. But none of them are “evil.” Just like there are real fascists, there is real evil in the world, but it’s not going to be found in some politician who takes a perfectly mainstream position that you just happen to disagree with. If we truly want civility in our public affairs, it will come only if we can acknowledge that someone with a different position isn’t a bad person.
8. What else do these texts tell us about Jones’ character?
This is hardly the most notable thing about these texts that Jones sent to Del. Carrie Coyner — a Republican from Chesterfield County — but when she asked him to stop, he didn’t.
The Democratic portrayal of Jones (before this, anyway) was that Jones was a rising star, the third-generation scion of a prominent family of civil rights lawyers, and one who cared so much about his young family that he gave up his legislative seat to spend more time at home.
The Republican view is that Jones — the son of two judges — is a spoiled brat who, once he saw he was going to be in the minority in the House, quit rather than stay in Richmond and do the hard work. Driving 116 mph down the interstate feeds into this depiction. So does his inability to stop texting when Coyner told him to.
9. Did these revelations come too late — or at the right time?
At least two Republicans have known about these texts for three years: Coyner and Gilbert, with whom she shared them. We don’t know who else had them, but someone clearly thought it politically advantageous to turn over to the National Review. Their publication came two weeks into early voting. By the time the news broke, about 300,000 votes had already been cast. Four years ago, nearly 3.3 million Virginians voted, so no matter what the turnout is this year, only a small fraction of votes have been cast.
Do these texts hit at just the right time — just when voters are getting engaged, just before the only two debates? If so, that makes these the classic “October Surprise.” However, if Miyares winds up losing by a small margin, will Republicans wish these texts had come out sooner? Miyares won four years ago by 26,536 votes. His Democratic predecessor, Mark Herring, won in 2017 by 175,850 votes.
10. Do these texts help Coyner?
Politics involves a lot of stagecraft, with politicians spouting rehearsed lines. That’s why it’s always revealing to find out what politicians say and do when they’re not on the public stage. That’s why these texts are so damaging for Jones. Meanwhile, they put Coyner — considered one of the most vulnerable House Republicans this year — in a very favorable light.
Once Jones texted about how if he had two bullets and three people to kill — Gilbert, Adolf Hitler and Pol Pot — he’d use both on Gilbert, Coyner texted: “Jay. Please stop.” When Jones tried to laugh it off, Coyner texted: “It really bothers me when you talk about hurting people or wishing death on them.”
When Jones continued, Coyner texted: “I point blank asked you three times. And you dug in that you meant it. I honestly am questioning a lot today.”
The National Review reports that some point Jones phoned Coyner to try to explain himself: “Then at one point, the source said, he suggested he wished Gilbert’s wife could watch her own child die in her arms so that Gilbert might reconsider his political views, prompting Coyner to hang up the phone in disgust.”
She acted honorably. Will that help her in her reelection bid against Democratic challenger Lindsey Dougherty? We won’t know the answer to that until Nov. 4. The answers to other questions may reveal themselves sooner.
Want more information on the candidates?
You can see how the candidates for governor (as well as lieutenant governor, attorney general and many House of Delegates candidates) answered our questionnaire on our Voter Guide.
We have individual pages for all 133 counties and cities in Virginia, so no matter where you live, you can look on our Voter Guide to see who’s on the ballot in your community. For instance, in today’s column I reference the House races between Rise Marie Hayes and Wendell Walker in the Lynchburg area and the one between Carrie Coyner and Lindsey Dougherty in a district south of Richmond. You can see where Hayes and Walker stand on the Lynchburg and Campbell County pages and where Coyner and Dougherty stand on the Chesterfield County, Hopewell and Prince George County pages.
Want more political news and insights? You can sign up for our weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital. This week, I’ll be taking another look at the latest early voting trends and whatever else happens this week.