A few weeks ago, Cardinal News founding editor Dwayne Yancey wrote a series of articles called “Things That Could Have Been” about big ideas or proposed projects in Virginia that never ended up coming to fruition, things like damming up the New River for a huge reservoir in Grayson County and moving the United Nations to Albemarle County. (You can link to all five of these out of his last one, about Woodrow Wilson College.)
At the time, I considered what it would be like to do something similar for weather, but then quickly abandoned the thought because the “Things That Could Have Been” with weather setups that barely missed something huge and memorable would be endless. Do you remember the Great Blizzard of Feb. 19-20, 2025? In atmospheric synoptics that came a lot closer to happening than our 1-4 inches of snow in a couple of quick bursts nearly 24 hours apart would seem to have indicated.
But one potentially catastrophic weather event that could have been for our region did come to mind, and that was 10 years ago this week, when a strong upper-level low couldn’t quite manage to link up with Hurricane Joaquin, a weather event that could have been a lot like Hurricane Helene was last year, but a decade earlier and 100-200 miles farther northeast.
Virginia, instead of being, as we discussed last week, a ring or two out from the bull’s-eye with a few Southwest Virginia localities at the edge of the inner circle of Helene’s worst effects, would have been squarely in the cross-hairs if the Joaquin-upper low merger had been fully realized in early October 2015.
It could have been “Helene before Helene” for Virginia, or perhaps something of a replica of what 1954’s Hurricane Hazel did after being pulled inland from the Carolinas, or maybe somewhat similar to what Hurricane Isabel did in 2003 but covering even more of the state. Thankfully, even though there was some serious flooding in Virginia primarily from the upper-level low’s effects, the full monstrous potential wasn’t realized.
What could have been with Hurricane Imelda
While contemplating what almost happened a decade ago, something new appeared to have a reasonable chance of developing this week.
The threat was great enough that governors of both Carolinas (one a Democrat, one a Republican, before anyone tries to make partisan hay out of this) declared a state of emergency in anticipation of the potential impacts, coastal and inland, of what is now Hurricane Imelda. Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s office posted about its concern for possible flooding in Virginia on social media.
Given lots of forecast models late last week showing a curving line leading from the then-unnamed and embryonic Imelda into the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic region, plus sizable segments of the population of these states on edge after last year’s tangle with Helene, and the need to mobilize resources in advance if the weather did take a turn for the worse, these declarations were understandable.
The scenario of Imelda being pulled inland by an upper-level low was very plausible. Imelda would never have been “the next Helene,” as it didn’t have as much time or as favorable conditions to intensify over open warm waters as Helene did, and the inland upper-level low was not as powerful as last year’s. But it certainly could have been a troublemaker in areas that haven’t fully recovered from last year’s generational dose of tropical trouble.
This time, factors that could have guided Imelda inland came unwound. The inland low-pressure system largely fizzled, and strong high pressure to the north built southward to block Imelda’s northward progress as it intensified. Always remember that high pressure systems are the bullies on the atmospheric playground that push hurricanes around, not the other way around.
There was one unusual element with Imelda that we haven’t seen in at least 60 years in the Atlantic, and that was the presence of a second hurricane in parallel only 500 miles to the northeast.
Hurricane Humberto formed first and intensified into a Category 5 storm before Imelda even became a hurricane.
At first, Humberto helped give Imelda an extra tug that further helped keep it away from shore. But now the two storms have entered into a demented do-si-do called the “Fujiwhara effect,” tugging on each other as they dance out to sea, with Imelda now appearing as if it will be the dominant partner of the two in the long run and absorb much of Humberto.
Places along the Atlantic coast from Maine to Florida got heightened surf from having two hurricanes spinning offshore. Southwest and Southside Virginia did get some periods of mostly light rain Monday and Tuesday indirectly from Imelda, as some moisture was whirled inland. But in the end, this was a tempest in a teapot compared to what it could have been, or what much of our region experienced a little over a year ago.
What was, and wasn’t, with Hurricane Joaquin
It was even less than what we got at the same time of year a decade ago.
Many locations in our region had rain most days over a 10-day stretch in late September and early October of 2015, with many spots recording 3-7 inches of rain. Blacksburg got 3.52 inches dumped on it on Sept. 30 alone. The Roanoke River went 4 ½ feet above flood stage at Roanoke’s Walnut Street bridge, the 10th highest crest in over a century of records at the time (still the 11th, as a May 2020 crest has entered the top 10).
That all came from the effects of a strong upper-level low, with perhaps a bit of moisture injection from Hurricane Joaquin, moving near the Bahamas similar to where Imelda started. But the inland upper-level low did not pull in Joaquin as happened last year with Helene, despite a number of forecast models showing exactly that happening 48-72 hours beforehand.
Joaquin’s torrents did not pour on top of the preceding several days’ rain as happened with Helene, nor did the wind field get prolonged and enhanced by the upper-level winds and carried far inland as happened with Helene.
It should be noted that, while Joaquin stayed east of the continental U.S, it reached Category 4 strength and killed 34 people and caused over $200 million in damage in the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. It wasn’t our disaster, but it was somebody else’s.
Instead, this go-round for the Southwest/Southside Virginia coverage area of Cardinal News, the indirect moisture effects of Imelda and what’s left of an upper-level low will scoot away, and we’ll have a nice dry remainder of the week with 60s-70s highs and mostly 40s lows.
Imelda’s exit stage right also spares us a lot of jokes about large warehouses of shoes, for Boomers and Gen Xers who remember Philippines current events from the late 20th century.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter: