A devastating new report from the Brookings Institution, combined with equally alarming economic forecasts from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center, should serve as a wake-up call for every Virginia leader who claims to champion our commonwealth’s economic interests. The data is unmistakable: while the federal government’s dramatic downsizing impacts the entire Washington metropolitan region, Virginia is bearing a disproportionate burden — and our state’s leadership has been dangerously silent.
The numbers tell a stark story. Since January 2025, the DMV region has lost federal jobs at nearly twice the national rate, shedding approximately 17,000 positions in just six months. The University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center projects even worse ahead: Virginia will lose 32,000 jobs in 2025, with unemployment rising from 2.8% to 4.7% by 2026 — the highest since the pandemic. Most devastating of all, 2026 is projected to bring “basically zero percent job growth,” according to the center’s executive director.
While this affects the entire region, Northern Virginia’s suburbs — Arlington County, Alexandria, Fairfax County, and Loudoun County — have experienced the biggest increases in unemployment. This isn’t a coincidence; it’s the predictable result of federal workforce reductions hitting where our residents actually live and work.
The human cost is visible in company after company across our commonwealth. In Northern Virginia, Goldschmitt & Associates cut 217 jobs. Mitre laid off 442 employees after DOGE contract cuts. Booz Allen Hamilton — one of the region’s anchor employers — eliminated 2,500 positions. Leidos cut 29 workers. Beyond Northern Virginia, the ripple effects spread statewide: Newport News Shipbuilding furloughed 471 employees. Even Volvo’s Southwest Virginia plant cut 530 jobs as the economic damage reached every corner of our state.
But the pain extends far beyond Northern Virginia. The Trump administration’s tariffs are hammering Virginia from Southwest to Hampton Roads. In Southwest Virginia — where 56.1% of the region’s economic output depends on international trade — coal exports to China have plummeted as Beijing shifted purchases to Canada. Virginia’s largest underground mine recently laid off 140 workers. At Hampton Roads, the damage is accelerating: the Port of Virginia has seen an 8.76% drop in container volumes through August, with exports down 9.3% and imports down 7.5%. The port is experiencing shipping levels not seen since 2020, and uncertainty over tariff policies makes recovery planning nearly impossible.
The report reveals that Virginia generates 47.4% of its state economic output from the greater Washington region — making us the most economically exposed to these federal cuts. When Northern Virginia suffers, all of Virginia suffers. Yet where has been the urgent, coordinated response from our state’s leadership?
A failure of leadership and reality
Glenn Youngkin, Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares have spent their time cheering on a presidential administration that is systematically dismantling Virginia’s economic foundation. Even as devastating forecasts emerged, Youngkin told the General Assembly in August that “Virginia is as financially strong as she has ever been” and claimed concerns about federal cuts have “receded.” This disconnect from reality is breathtaking.
While Youngkin painted rosy pictures, the data told a different story. Virginia has already lost jobs in three of the first six months of 2025, while the rest of the nation experienced job growth. UVA economists warn that “delayed federal layoffs and postponed tariffs” mean job losses will “intensify” through the rest of this year. As federal agencies announce relocations out of Washington and terminate thousands of contracts — contracts that employed thousands of Virginians — our state needed fierce advocates fighting for every Virginia job, every contract and every economic opportunity. Instead, we’ve gotten political theater and partisan cheerleading while Virginia families pay the price.
The Youngkin-Sears-Miyares Administration’s failure is particularly glaring when we examine the mismatch between displaced federal workers and available private sector jobs. The Brookings report shows that 45% of new private sector jobs added this year were in construction — a sector with virtually no occupational overlap with the skilled federal workforce being laid off in Northern Virginia. Meanwhile, Virginia’s Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sector — the leading private-sector industry in our state — is contracting for the first time in over a decade, with UVA projecting 10,000 job losses in these industries alone.
These aren’t just statistics; they represent thousands of Virginia families facing economic uncertainty with no clear path forward. The consequences extend beyond individual hardship: CNBC just stripped Virginia of its “best state for business” designation, and economists warn of potential “brain drain” as talented workers leave for states that haven’t suffered under federal downsizing.
Even more troubling, venture capital investment in our region has plummeted more than 30% while growing nationally — a clear signal that confidence in our economic future is eroding.
The Real Cost of Inaction
This economic disruption extends far beyond individual hardship and affects every corner of Virginia. From coal country to the coast, the commonwealth is under assault. Virginia has built its competitive advantage on being home to a highly educated, skilled workforce that serves both government and private sector needs. The Brookings report notes that the DMV region has the second-highest share of college graduates of any major metropolitan area — human capital that took decades to develop and could be lost in months if we fail to act.
The cascading effects are already visible statewide. Old Dominion University economists warn that tariffs create “cascading” job losses throughout Virginia’s economy. As port traffic declines— with the Port of Virginia moving 2.19 million containers through August compared to 2.4 million last year — demand for longshoremen, transport drivers and warehousing falls. Those workers spend less money, creating further ripple effects. Port officials acknowledge the “overall trade environment” makes planning impossible, with businesses unable to anticipate what policies will be in place from month to month. Meanwhile, Southwest Virginia faces a double blow: federal cuts to programs like Mine Safety and Health Administration offices that protect workers, combined with a tariff-driven collapse in coal exports that form the backbone of the regional economy.
Virginia’s labor force has already begun shrinking, from 4.6 million in January to 4.55 million now. UVA economists warn this could reflect more workers retiring early or — more concerning — moving out of state entirely. When these workers leave Virginia, they take with them not just their skills, but their purchasing power, their tax contributions and their civic engagement. The ripple effects are already visible: home listings have skyrocketed 64% compared to last year, double the national rate, suggesting families are preparing to leave Virginia entirely.
These workers aren’t just federal employees; they’re the foundation of Virginia’s innovation economy. The major contractors shedding thousands of jobs in Northern Virginia — Booz Allen, Mitre, Leidos — these companies staff our defense industry, cybersecurity firms and technology companies throughout the commonwealth. They drive demand for our restaurants, retail establishments and service providers across Virginia. When they leave Virginia, they take with them not just their skills, but their purchasing power, their tax contributions and their civic engagement.
A path forward
Virginia cannot afford to be a passive observer of our own economic decline. We need immediate, aggressive action to protect our interests and position our commonwealth for recovery and growth.
First, we must demand that Virginia receive its fair share of any new federal contracting, particularly in the nuclear energy, IT and defense sectors where federal investment continues. Gov. Youngkin should be personally working every contact and leveraging every relationship to ensure Virginia companies win these contracts.
Second, we need an emergency economic transition program specifically designed for displaced federal workers. This means retraining programs aligned with private sector needs, bridge funding for entrepreneurs and aggressive business recruitment focused on sectors that can absorb this skilled workforce.
Third, Virginia must diversify its economic base while building on our strengths. We should be leading in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and cybersecurity — sectors where we already have competitive advantages but need sustained investment and political support.
The time for excuses is over
Some will argue that federal downsizing was inevitable, that Virginia must simply adapt. This misses the point entirely. Other states fight aggressively for their economic interests. Other governors make their states’ needs a priority in every conversation and negotiation. Virginia deserves that same level of advocacy.
Senator Tim Kaine recently traveled through Southwest Virginia and heard the same concerns everywhere: “the combination of the tariffs and the uncertainty.” He noted that DOGE cuts aren’t just affecting Northern Virginia — they’re creating “a trickle down effect on Southwest Virginia” through reduced state health department funding and threatened closure of mine safety offices. Meanwhile, Hampton Roads faces the prospect of prolonged trade wars that could devastate port traffic and eliminate thousands of jobs throughout the region.
The Brookings report is clear: we are facing “real turmoil” in our regional economy. Crime remains high in parts of Northern Virginia, households are showing increased financial distress and our economic trajectory is worse than peer regions across multiple indicators. Add the statewide impact of tariffs hammering our port, our coal industry and our manufacturing base, and this isn’t the time for gentle diplomacy or hoping for the best.
Virginia has always been a leader — in the founding of this nation, in innovation, in economic growth. But leadership requires more than legacy; it demands action when Virginia’s people and prosperity are threatened.
The data shows we’re at a critical juncture. Virginia can either fight for our economic future with the urgency it deserves, or we can continue to accept decline as inevitable. I know which path Virginia’s families deserve.
The question is whether our state’s leadership will finally step up to meet this moment, or whether we’ll continue to watch Virginia’s competitive advantages slip away while our neighbors act with the determination and strategic vision our commonwealth desperately needs.
Virginia deserves better. Virginia’s families deserve better. And it’s time the state’s leadership started acting like it.
State Sen. Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax County, is the Senate Majority Leader.