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Martinsville, which has seen more than its share of economic trauma over the past decades, appears to be turning a corner, at least demographically.
A new round of census data says that from 2020 to 2024, the city gained population. If that trend holds up through the census five years away, that would mean Martinsville has reversed a generation-long trend to gain population for the first time since the 1960s.
In the meantime, though, the new census data shows a demographic trend beneath the surface that is as encouraging as it is remarkable.
These new stats deal with age. No surprise: We’re an aging society, a combination of longer lifespans, the baby boom generation moving into retirement and declining birth rates that leave smaller generations coming along behind. The implications of this are enormous: a smaller labor pool in the future, fewer taxpayers to pay into programs such as Social Security that pay out to that growing group of retirees, fewer college-age students for universities to enroll.
In Virginia, we’re seeing the population 65 and over grow in virtually every locality. However, we’re also seeing another curious trend, which I dealt with in a previous column: The population of young adults (statistically, 25-44) is growing in most rural areas and small cities. Once that age cohort flocked to major metros such as Northern Virginia. Now the growth of that age group in Northern Virginia (and Hampton Roads) has slowed, as more people that age either move to smaller communities or simply choose to stay there. Demographer Hamilton Lombard at the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia (who supplied all these stats in an easy-to-understand form) attributes this to high housing costs in major metros and the availability of more remote work in smaller communities.
That’s the backdrop against which we look at the Martinsville data. Notice I said the 65-plus age cohort had grown in “virtually” every locality. That means in a few places it didn’t. In eight of Virginia’s 133 counties and cities, the 65-plus population has declined over the past four years. All are small cities with the exception of one county, Smyth County. In most of these, the decline is in low double digits — down 10 in Smyth County, down 16 in Galax — so perhaps not all that statistically significant. In only one of those eight exceptions is the decline in the 65-plus age group in triple digits: Martinsville, where the population that age dropped by 117.
Realistically, Martinsville’s 65-plus population went down because a lot of people in that age group died — but, more importantly, they weren’t replaced by either other seniors moving in or newly minted seniors moving up from the 45-64 age cohort. One reason they weren’t replaced in Martinsville is that probably a lot of people in that age group moved out of the city years ago when the textile and furniture industries collapsed and they needed to seek employment elsewhere. Think of that as a “missing generation.” There’s another reason why they weren’t replaced, but we’ll get to that.
So far, this doesn’t sound much like good news, but just hang on. The 25-44 age group in Martinsville has increased (up 173). That means the young adult population in the city is growing faster than the 65-and-older age group is declining. That certainly runs counter to state trends. Across Virginia, the 65-and-older age group grew almost three times as much as the 25-44 age group. Only seven places across Virginia saw their young adult population grow while their older age group was declining, Martinsville being one of them. Of the other six communities (Colonial Heights, Covington, Franklin city, Galax, Norton and Smyth County), Martinsville had the biggest drop in the 65-plus population and the second-biggest growth (behind only Colonial Heights) in the 25-44 population. Taken together, that means Martinsville had the biggest population swing from older to younger.
Here’s why that matters: I don’t want to say that one age group is “better” than another, but different age groups do have different economic consequences. A growing 25-44 age cohort means a growing labor pool, which makes the community more attractive to employers; a shrinking one means just the opposite. People in the 25-44 age group are spending money on household formation — buying houses, buying furniture, buying kids’ shoes. People in the 65 and up group are spending money, too, just on different things — health care, for instance. But they’re often downsizing households, and they’re generally not in the workforce. Generally speaking, it’s better to be younger rather than older — that’s true in life and it’s true in the economics of demography.
By growing its 25-44 age group, Martinsville is making itself more economically attractive, whether its 65 and up population is growing or shrinking.
There’s something else the 25-44 age cohort does that its older age cohorts definitely don’t do: They have children. Even in an era of declining birth rates, Martinsville seems to be having a lot of them. Some places that are seeing the 25-44 population increase are still seeing their under-25 population decrease. (Admittedly, not everyone under 25 qualifies as a child, but this is how the data is put together, so we work with what we have.) Pulaski County, for instance, has seen a bigger increase in its 25-44 population than any locality west of the Roanoke Valley (up 465), but it’s still seen its under-25 population go down by 316.
Martinsville is different. It has seen both its 25-44 population and its under-25 population increase. But wait, there’s more: Martinsville is one of just 18 localities in Virginia where the under-25 group has added more people than the 25-44 group. Some, but not all, of those 18 localities are communities feeling the effect of exurban growth: Loudoun County in Northern Virginia; Culpeper County, as Northern Virginia’s population pushes further out; Powhatan County, as the Richmond metro does the same; James City County, squeezed between Richmond and Hampton Roads.
Even then, the numbers aren’t all that different. James City County has added 819 in the youngest age group and 794 in the young adult range; Powhatan County picked up 446 in the younger range and 326 young adults.
Martinsville, though, has added a lot more people under 25 compared to those 25-44 — nearly four times as many. Martinsville has added 627 in the youngest age group and 173 in the young adult range.
Martinsville’s population 45 and over has gone down so much, and its population 44 and under has gone up so much, that even in an aging society, the city has recorded a remarkable milestone: Its median age has declined over the past four years. Martinsville is still an older city compared to others in Virginia, but its median age has fallen more than anywhere else — a drop of 3.6 years in just four years’ time, from 39.7 to 36.1 years. For comparison’s sake, most places have only seen changes of one year or less to their median ages, and some of those have gone up.
Martinsville is now slightly younger than Roanoke (which has edged up to 38.5) and is now in the neighborhood of some communities that historically have been considered “young,” such as Arlington County (35.6).
Why is this happening? The answer seems to be that traditional estate adage: Location, location, location.
You may recall that earlier, I noted that Martinsville’s demographic trends lined up with certain counties on the edge of big metro areas that are now seeing a lot of growth pushing further out. The parallels aren’t exact — no one will mistake Martinsville for Loudoun County — but Martinsville is feeling the demographic ripples of growth from Greensboro, North Carolina (a sign that economies don’t stop at state lines and much of the southern tier of Virginia is economically connected to the Tar Heel State).
Remember how I said that many older cities are seeing their 65-and-older population decline simply because those older residents are, umm, dying and aren’t being replaced by new seniors? I noted that many people in the age cohort behind them moved out years ago for jobs. However, there’s another reason Martinsville isn’t seeing its senior population grow, according to Lombard. Here’s what he emailed me:
“Another factor that has caused these small cities to not age as quickly or even grow younger is that a larger share of their housing stock has been converted to rentals, which are more likely to be occupied by younger households, often with children. 43 percent of households in Martinsville rent their home compared to 24 percent in Henry County. The percentages look fairly similar for Galax. In Buena Vista, the share of households that rent rose from 29 percent in 2000 to 43 percent in 2023, some of this growth was likely driven by Southern Virginia University.”
This fits with what we’ve seen: Cardinal’s Martinville-based reporter, Dean-Paul Stephens, has written multiple stories about projects in the city that have involved redeveloping buildings into housing, such as the old Winn-Dixie grocery and the former BB&T Bank building. Just last week, it was announced that the iconic Plant 10 of the former American of Martinsville furniture factory will be repurposed as a 100-unit mixed-use development with retail space. “This is more than a redevelopment,” said Del. Eric Phillips, R-Henry County, “This is a generational investment in our community.” These developments (or, more accurately, redevelopments) seem likely to drive Martinsville’s youth trend. Still, we must ask what’s driving this.
Lombard offers this explanation:
“When you zoom out a bit and look at southern Virginia and neighboring North Carolina, there are a number of indicators that growth is spilling over into southern Virginia from fast growing North Carolina metro areas, including Greensboro and Winston Salem. Stokes County in the Winston Salem Metro Area and Rockingham County in the Greensboro Metro Area are on Henry County’s southern border and have both seen strong growth in their populations under age 45 since 2020, after these age groups shrunk during the 2010s. Both counties have noticeably higher home prices than in Martinsville, which is undoubtedly causing more young families to move to the Martinsville area for homes they can afford. IRS county to county migration data shows that migration between Rockingham County, NC and Henry County shifted from being away from Henry to Rockingham before the pandemic to in the last three years data is available Henry County attracting over 50 more households from Rockingham than moved the other direction …
“These are essentially two different trends in Martinsville that are causing its median age to drop. The first is that its older population has shrunk considerably in recent years to the point where in 2023 it had fewer deaths than before the pandemic and the smallest number in a decade. The other trend is that the combination of housing prices doubling over the past decade in the U.S. with a tight labor supply has caused more young adults to move to places like Martinsville that have relatively affordable housing and more job opportunities than in recent decades. The persistence of remote and hybrid work is making the availability of jobs in towns like Martinsville also less necessary for them to attract young adults who can work much of the time remotely.”
The bottom line is that Martinsville is growing younger — and growing a larger labor pool. Economically, that’s a win. For anyone whose impressions of Martinsville were locked in by the collapse of furniture and textiles, well, it’s time to update that image.
Early voting is running double what it was four years ago this time. What’s that mean?
You can see who’s on the ballot in your locality and where they stand (if they responded to our questionnaire) on our Voter Guide. I write a weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital. Last week, I examined the first week of early voting trends and explained why we can’t draw any conclusions yet: Early voting is more than double what it was at this point four years ago, but it’s up across the board, so it’s hard to find partisan trends. We also don’t know yet whether this signifies a surge in voter turnout or simply more regular voters opting to vote early. I’ll take another look at the early voting trends in this week’s edition (along with other political news of the week). You can sign up here: