No matter whether Virginians elect Winsome Earle-Sears or Abigail Spanberger in November, they will be making history, and not just the history you’re thinking of.
If Earle-Sears wins, she will have the least experience of any previous lieutenant governor elected to the state’s top office since Charles Robb in 1981. He had no experience before he served as lieutenant governor; Earle-Sears has a single term in the House of Delegates two decades ago.
If Spanberger wins, she will be the first governor whose only previous time in office was in Washington since 5th District Congressman Claude Swanson was elected in 1905.
That history might seem like historical trivia, but the point is to show how little experience either candidate has with the state government that one of them will take charge of in January. Virginia has certainly elected governors with even less experience — Glenn Youngkin had never held office before he was elected. Neither did Terry McAuliffe (2013), Mark Warner (2001), Linwood Holton (1969) or, if you go far enough back, Westmoreland Davis (1917), Fitzhugh Lee (1885), William Cameron (1881) or Gilbert Walker (1869), and by then, we’re back to the Civil War. Either Earle-Sears or Spanberger has more experience than all those gentlemen put together, and some of them turned out to be governors we liked.
Nonetheless, we don’t have much of a record to judge either Earle-Sears or Spanberger by. In addition, both have run the most issue-less campaigns I’ve seen in my years of following Virginia politics. We really don’t know much about what either candidate would do as governor, although we have more clues about Spanberger than we do Earle-Sears, who has generally avoided interviews about her plans.
If you’ve watched “Avengers: Infinity War,” you know that Doctor Strange used the Time Stone to view 14,000,605 possible futures — and concluded that just one offered a way to defeat the villain Thanos. You’re in luck today. You don’t have to look at 14,000,605 possible futures — just four. Here are four possible scenarios about what kind of governor these candidates would be. There are certainly more scenarios possible (although probably not 14,000,605), but think of these as the best and worst scenarios for each candidate.
One constant in all of these: The state Senate isn’t on the ballot this year, so we know that it will be in Democratic hands for the next two years, no matter who wins. The only way around that would be if Democrat Ghazala Hashmi wins her race for lieutenant governor, but then Democrats lose the special election to fill her seat. Given the makeup of her district, that seems unlikely.
1. Spanberger wins, becomes a strong governor
I’m going to assume that if Spanberger wins the governorship, Democrats retain control of the House of Delegates — and likely expand their current 51-49 majority. That would put her in a position where her party controls both chambers and can pass pretty much whatever it wants to. (This is a talking point for both Democrats and Republicans, just in different ways.)
Under this scenario, Spanberger could become a modern-day Harry Byrd, just without the historical baggage. A century ago, Byrd ran a campaign for governor that was considered particularly vapid. He just made vague references to wanting Richmond to be “economical.” Once in office, Byrd unveiled a far-reaching program to overhaul state government that he rammed through a compliant legislature. He seized such firm hold of the state’s political machinery that what had been considered an “organization” became a machine — the Byrd Machine.
It’s possible that Spanberger sweeps into office and pulls in some Democratic legislators with her who then become beholden to her. Let’s suppose the former CIA agent has been studying state government and knows exactly what she wants to do with it — and generally gets her way. She becomes a political force to be reckoned with. She’s also in such a commanding position that she’s able to moderate the Democrats in the General Assembly and keep them from doing some of the things they’d be inclined to do, such as repeal the state’s right-to-work law. (Spanberger has said she’s not in favor of a “full repeal” but hasn’t spelled out what a partial repeal would look like. The AFL-CIO takes her seriously enough that it has declined to endorse her.)
Spanberger also takes office at a time of economic crisis — an economy breaking under the weight of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, state revenues declining yet more responsibility being foisted upon it by the federal government. Under the theory of “never let a crisis go to waste,” Spanberger takes charge in such a way that she’s compared to landmark governors such as Mills Godwin and, yes, Byrd.
2. Spanberger wins, becomes a weak governor
This is much the same scenario, just in reverse. Democratic legislators who get elected with her don’t feel beholden to her. They either figure they’d have won anyway in what seemed a Democratic year, or, if they’re beholden to anyone, it’s to House Speaker Don Scott. In this scenario, instead of a legislature full of grateful Democrats who will do her bidding, Spanberger has to deal with a restive legislature eager to reassert its authority after chafing under Youngkin. Spanberger’s lack of experience in state government shows. She’s personally popular — just as Youngkin is now — but she has no leverage over the legislature and no real sense of how to get the state bureaucracy to respond. On the contrary, the most powerful person in Richmond is the chair of the Senate Finance Committee: state Sen. Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth. Spanberger can do little to stop the legislature from sending her controversial bills that run the risk of a voter backlash in two years — a backlash strong enough that it installs a Republican majority in the House with Terry Kilgore, R-Scott County, as speaker. The first two years of Spanberger’s term are unhappy ones dealing with a sluggish economy; the final two are unhappier still because she has to deal with Republicans in charge of one or both chambers of the General Assembly.
3. Earle-Sears wins, becomes Youngkin 2.0
Whether an Earle-Sears victory brings in a Republican House may not matter, because she’d still have to deal with a Democratic Senate for at least two years. Earle-Sears understands that she has no real route to get anything through the legislature except for the most innocuous bills, so she focuses on administrative action. She’ll have to do battle with the Democratic Senate on many issues, but, after losing a statewide race they thought they should have won, Democrats are cowed — and Earle-Sears enjoys modest success. She also bides her time, knowing that if she really wants to have an impact, she needs to wait until after the midterms. If Republicans can win those, and take both houses of the General Assembly, then she’ll have freer rein to take more controversial actions in her final two years. (This becomes both a Democratic and Republican talking point in those 2027 elections.) Generally, though, Earle-Sears is popular, and Democrats are frustrated at being unable to get Virginians to be unhappy about her policies. Republicans don’t mind that Earle-Sears can’t really get her agenda enacted as long as she’s there to veto whatever Democrats pass.
4. Earle-Sears wins, and begins a chaotic, combative, controversial governorship
When a heckler shouted at Earle-Sears at the Labor Day event in Buena Vista last year, she heckled right back. At this year’s Labor Day event, while other candidates talked up their credentials and policies and never mentioned their opponents, Earle-Sears pointed at Spanberger, calling her out by name on multiple issues. Earle-Sears takes this combative approach to the governorship, and Virginians see a level of conflict in Richmond we haven’t seen before. Democrats, seething in defeat, lash out at every opportunity at a governor they consider unworthy of their respect. A bad economy demands budget-cutting, and every cut the governor proposes generates controversy. Political cartoonists (if there are any left) have a field day with cartoons depicting the two dueling power centers in Richmond: Earle-Sears in the governor’s office, Lucas presiding over Senate Finance and killing the governor’s agenda at every turn. Earle-Sears has been through multiple campaign managers. This carries over to her administration, which becomes a revolving door that hampers her ability to get things done through executive orders. The 2027 midterms, which were always going to be a big deal, become a battle royale — and voters react against the governor in a way Virginians haven’t seen since Republicans picked up eight seats in the state Senate in 1991, partly in response to the turbulent governorship of Gov. Douglas Wilder, a Democrat.
The odds are that the future — whichever one we wind up with — falls somewhere between the two extremes on each side. These options, though, give some sense of what the next few years might look like.
See where the candidates stand
You can see how the candidates for governor (as well as the candidates for lieutenant governor, attorney general, the House of Delegates and many local offices) answered our questions on our Voter Guide. Early voting is now underway.
For more political news and insights, sign up for West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter that goes out on Fridays. This week, I’ll analyze the early voting trends and whatever else happens.
