CNU poll: Spanberger leads by 12 percentage points, Democrats set for sweep

Abigail Spanberger holds a commanding lead of 12 percentage points over Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor’s race as Democrats appear poised to sweep all three statewide offices, according to a new poll from Christopher Newport University.

The survey comes after others — from Virginia Commonwealth University and Roanoke College — also showed Spanberger with a clear lead. However, this poll shows Spanberger with a bigger lead than the other polls, as well as bigger leads for her two running mates: an 11 percentage-point advantage for Ghazala Hashmi in the lieutenant governor’s race and a 7 percentage-point edge for Jay Jones in the attorney general’s contest.

All these numbers fall well outside the margin of error of 3.9%. They are all very fresh — the survey was conducted Sept. 8-14 — so reflect the most recent campaign events. This is also a poll of likely voters (the VCU poll was registered voters), which narrows the universe to those expected to actually cast ballots. Some Republicans had dismissed the VCU poll (which gave Spanberger a lead of 8.3 percentage points) because they figured that some of the Spanberger supporters who answered that survey weren’t likely to vote. However, CNU limited its respondents to likely voters — and Spanberger’s lead here is even bigger. The window for Republicans to influence the race is also starting to close; early voting opens in Virginia today.

Finally, for those who really groove on the details of polls, this one is weighted to match the demographics of the Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey estimates as well as the exit polls in the last two gubernatorial elections (which include the elevated rural turnout that led to the 2021 Republican sweep).

Usually, I can find some good news for both parties in a poll, but there’s very little good news for Republicans here — other than to point out that four years ago at this stage, they were behind and still won. For Democrats, that’s a warning: Their candidates in 2021 led at this point by roughly similar numbers and were all overtaken by a Republican surge. Can Republicans duplicate that feat?

Two findings in this poll point to how that will be more difficult this year: Republican voters are less enthusiastic than their Democratic counterparts, and President Donald Trump is a drag on his party’s candidates.

A third finding is a caution for Democrats: Much of their support comes from independents who aren’t all that thrilled about voting, so nothing is guaranteed.

Let’s get the topline numbers out of the way, and then we’ll dive deeper into what’s driving them.

Governor:
Abigail Spanberger (D) 52%, Winsome Earle-Sears (R) 40%, undecided 8%

Lieutenant governor
Ghazala Hashmi (D) 48%, John Reid (R) 37%, undecided 15%

Attorney general
Jay Jones (D) 48%, Jason Miyares (R) 41%, undecided 12%

And now, for the details:

Voters like Spanberger; they don’t like Earle-Sears

Spanberger gets a favorable rating from Virginians: 43% have a favorable impression of the former 7th District representative, 33% don’t.

Earle-Sears, however, gets a thumbs down: Only 34% have a favorable opinion of her, while 37% have an unfavorable opinion.

While the poll can’t fully tell us why this is, it’s not a good thing to be “underwater,” as the lingo goes. It’s also telling that Earle-Sears is the sitting lieutenant governor. Virginians have seen her in action for four years and evidently aren’t impressed. As a statewide figure, Spanberger is a relative newcomer, so she may benefit from some grace period there. Nonetheless, Virginians have a distinctly positive impression of Spanberger and a somewhat negative impression of Earle-Sears. Everything else likely flows from that.

Virginians don’t really know the other candidates

Lieutenant governor:
Ghazala Hashmi: 15% favorable, 13% unfavorable, 41% no opinion, 32% don’t know.
John Reid: 13% favorable, 11% unfavorable, 44% no opinion, 31% don’t know.

Attorney general:
Jay Jones: 23% favorable, 19% unfavorable, 39% no opinion, 19% don’t know.
Jason Miyares: 26% favorable, 18% unfavorable, 36% no opinion, 20% don’t know.

Here’s as close as I can come to giving Republicans some hope to cling to in this poll: While voters’ impressions of the two gubernatorial candidates are setting in, they basically don’t know much about the lower-ballot candidates, especially those running for lieutenant governor. To the extent that voters are still picking favorites, “voters are still mostly relying on party ID to make their choices,” said Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, research director for CNU’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership, which conducted the poll. 

Given that this appears to be a Democratic year (or, at least, a Spanberger year), the challenge for Reid and Miyares is to make the case to independent voters not to cast a straight-party ticket. How likely is that? Just sit tight. 

We shouldn’t be surprised that the lieutenant governor candidates are so unknown — neither has run statewide before, and Reid has never held office at all. It is curious that Miyares, after four years in office — and an office that regularly makes news — seems so little-known. On the other hand, those who do know of him seem to like him. He has a big fundraising advantage over Jones — see my previous analysis of that — so these general impressions give him something to build on. On the downside, he remains a blank slate for many voters, and all Jones may have to do is point out that Miyares is the Republican and that will be that.

Trump is unpopular and likely dragging down Republicans

You know who is well-known but unpopular in Virginia? Trump. That’s not really news: Virginians voted against him three straight times. 

This poll finds that 58% of Virginians disapprove of his handling of the presidency, only 39% approve. That’s the obstacle that Republicans running statewide this year have to work around (and a reason why so many of the Democratic campaigns are based on their opposition to Trump). House Republicans running in pro-Trump districts won’t suffer, but those elsewhere have a challenge in front of them.

It’s probably not a coincidence that the figures the statewide Republican candidates record in the poll — 37% to 41% — aren’t statistically different from Trump’s 39% approval rating. 

Youngkin is relatively popular and a potential advantage for Republicans

No matter who is polling, Virginians have always given Gov. Glenn Youngkin higher approval ratings than his disapproval ones. His approval rating hasn’t always been super-high — he is a Republican in a state that is either light blue or purple — but he does come down on the plus side. In this survey, 48% approve of Youngkin’s handling of the governorship; 42% disapprove.

That makes Youngkin potentially useful to Republicans, particularly since part of the rationale for electing Earle-Sears is to continue Youngkin’s policies. At the Labor Day speechmaking in Buena Vista, even Miyares made a point of trying to associate himself with the Youngkin administration. The question is whether voters’ general good feelings about Youngkin will be washed out by their very strong, and negative, feelings about Trump.

Democrats and Republicans care about different issues

If it sometimes seems that Democrats and Republicans are speaking past one another, here’s why: Their party bases care about different things.

In this survey, 32% of Democrats said “threats to democracy” rank as their top concern — more than any other. Cost of living/inflation came in second, with 20% of Democrats saying that’s their top; education and health care get 12% apiece.

For Republicans, there’s a three-way split as to what the top issue is: 19% say cost of living/inflation, 18% say crime, another 18% say immigration, with taxes further back at 12%.

When you add in independents (more on them coming soon), and mix all these together, cost of living/inflation comes out first, at 21%. That’s also what Spanberger based her campaign on — the broad (and perhaps vague) theme of “affordability.”

Spanberger is talking about voters’ top concern (even among Republicans), while Earle-Sears is talking about something else — originally right-to-work, more recently transgender issues. If Spanberger is ahead, it could simply be that she’s the only one talking to voters about what they’re interested in.

Democrats are more excited about voting than Republicans are

The enthusiasm gap this year favors Democrats: 69% of Democrats say they’re “very enthusiastic” about voting compared to 56% of Republicans.

This often happens the year after a big election: The winning side is complacent, the losing side is angry and fired up. For Republicans, the challenge is motivating their own people. That’s why it may be hard for Republicans to replicate the big uptick in rural voters that propelled them to victory four years ago.

Some Republicans aren’t sold on Reid

Youngkin earlier this year tried to push Reid off the ticket. Reid is also gay. We’ve all been wondering how those two things would play with Republican voters. The VCU poll found no statistical weakness for Reid; the CNU poll does: 91% of Republicans back Earle-Sears, 90% back Miyares, but only 83% say they’re for Reid. The Republican numbers are in line with the Democratic numbers, which put party support for those candidates in the 91% to 95% range. It’s only Reid who is the outlier.

And now we come to another potentially decisive finding in the poll:

Independents this year are more aligned with Democrats than Republicans

Independents are more concerned about cost of living/inflation than either Democrats or Republicans are — 25% list that as their top issue, with threats to democracy next at 17%. As noted above, Spanberger has based her campaign on “affordability.” It’s almost as if her polling shows the same thing, and she’s speaking very intentionally to a key voting group.

Independents also really don’t like Trump: 67% disapprove of his handling of the presidency. That’s a tough number for Republicans to work around.

Independents are also so-so on Youngkin: 45% approve, 44% disapprove. An association with Youngkin may not do much to motivate independents.

Given those feelings, we shouldn’t be surprised when independents say they favor the Democratic candidates by wide margins in all three races:

Independents in governor’s race: Spanberger 55%, Earle-Sears 32%

Independents in lieutenant governor’s race: Hashmi 46%, Reid 32%

Independents in attorney general’s race: Jones 51%, Miyares 33%

The Republicans all have about the same level of support. Democrats have a wider spread, with Hashmi being relatively weak among independents compared to her ticketmates. That matches the VCU poll, which had very different numbers but the same general conclusion. Hashmi has some work to do with independents, but she’s still in a good position.

Independents are less excited about voting, though

Here’s one potential danger sign for Democrats: Although independents really seem to identify with Democrats this year, they’re not all that excited about voting: 42% say they’re “very enthusiastic,” well below what partisans for the two parties say. 

The challenge for Democrats is making sure those independents actually do get to the polls. Without them, all these Democratic margins would shrink.

Polls can change: A look back at 2021

The whole point of a campaign is to persuade people. Polls reflect how people feel now, not how they’ll feel later. Some voters will start locking in their votes today, but others won’t — so Democrats need to get their people to the polls to secure this lead, Republicans need to encourage theirs to vote early to make up for that enthusiasm gap, and then work on persuading whoever can be persuaded.

It’s useful to look back at the CNU polls from 2021, which came at slightly different points in the campaign. That year, their late August poll (the closest to this early September one) showed Democrat Terry McAuliffe leading Youngkin 50% to 41% in the governor’s race, Democrat Hala Ayala leading Earle-Sears 52% to 42% in the lieutenant governor’s race, and Democrat Mark Herring leading Miyares 50% to 43% in the attorney general’s race. 

All three were at 50% or above in the polls then, and all three lost on Election Day. McAuliffe’s 9-point lead then is not all that different from Spanberger’s 12-point lead now; ditto Ayala’s 10-point lead then and Hashmi’s 11-point lead now. Herring’s 7-point lead is exactly the same as Jones’ now. Of course, Republicans then didn’t have Trump in the White House doing things that enraged Democrats. 

Still, all those Democratic leads this year could all go away if Democrats fail to get their vote out — and Republicans run a really good campaign from here on out.