Democrat Abigail Spanberger enters the fall campaign season (and early voting) with a 2.5-1 cash advantage over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor’s race, part of a larger trend that gives Democrats the financial advantage in two of the three statewide races.
Democrats also have raised more money than Republicans during the summer in 13 GOP-held House of Delegates districts and now have more cash on hand than the Republican incumbent in five of them. One of those is the Lily Franklin-Chris Obenshain contest in Montgomery County and Roanoke County, which now stands as the third-most expensive legislative race in the state, behind only elections in Northern Virginia and the Richmond suburbs.
The most notable exception to the Democratic cash deluge is the attorney general’s race, where Republican incumbent Jason Miyares has almost twice as much money as his Democratic opponent, Jay Jones. Miyares is so well-funded — and Earle-Sears so lightly funded — that he has more cash on hand that his party’s candidates for governor and lieutenant governor put together.
Those are the headlines out of the most recent campaign finance reports. Before we go further, I must deliver my customary Miranda warning on campaign money. Money is important, to be sure, but it’s not the be-all, end-all. What matters is whether a candidate has enough money to get his or her message out, not whether the other side has more. That said, it’s always better to have more. We also need to remember that some money is ideological (donors give to candidates they agree with) while some is more access-based (donors give to candidates they think will win). That’s not meant to suggest corruption, just that some donors, especially business-related ones, want to make sure they’re on good terms with officeholders so they often give to who they think is going to win, even if they’d prefer the other candidate. That’s just, well, good business. If you want evidence that some campaign contributions don’t pay off, here’s one: Four years ago, a Georgia-based “skill” game company gave Youngkin $100,000; he wound up scuttling a proposal to legalize those games.
Also some technical notes. There are several ways to look at campaign finance reports. We can look at the overall fundraising totals — they speak to a campaign’s overall fundraising prowess. We can look at the numbers just for the most recent reporting period, in this case July 1 through Aug. 31. They speak to momentum. Or we can look at cash on hand, which I personally find the most useful because that shows how much money a campaign has yet to spend, but surely will. Sometimes campaigns squander their money early on and don’t have enough down the stretch; a lightly funded campaign might hoard its cash and actually have more money to spend on advertising when it matters most. I’ll deal with all three measures because sometimes they show different things.
Governor: Spanberger has a big financial advantage
Total amount raised: Spanberger $26,667,817; Earle-Sears $11,586,945
This period: Spanberger: $14,066,301; Earle-Sears $5,225,718
Cash on hand: Spanberger $12,209,847; Earle-Sears $4,939,504
No matter how we look at this, we see Spanberger dominating Earle-Sears.
It’s not so much that the Spanberger campaign is a cash machine as it is that Earle-Sears is simply failing to raise the amount of money required for a governor’s race in Virginia. During this same period in the 2021 governor’s race, Glenn Youngkin had raised $15.26 million, plus put in $450,000 of his own money. Spanberger is raising amounts comparable to that; Earle-Sears isn’t.
Governor: Traditional Republican donors aren’t betting big on Earle-Sears
Former Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who in retirement frequently posts political commentary on his Facebook page, said Tuesday: “The candidate who spends the most money doesn’t always win political campaigns, but these numbers continue to show that Sears has been unable to gain significant financial support from traditional Republican donors.”
Examples: Rockingham County businessman Walter Curt gave $225,000 to Youngkin four years ago, but only $50,000 to Earle-Sears so far. Nicholas Taubman of Roanoke gave $125,000 to Ed Gillespie eight years ago and $162,500 to Youngkin four years ago. This year, he hasn’t given any money to Earle-Sears but did give $25,000 to Miyares.
Perhaps the most glaring example is the Republican Governors Association. Four years ago, the RGA gave Youngkin $10.7 million. At this point in the campaign, it had given $4,450,000. So far the group has given Earle-Sears just $500,000. By contrast, the RGA has backed a $1 million ad buy for the Republican candidate in New Jersey, where the party apparently sees a better chance of victory.
For further comparison, the Democratic Governors Association has given $3 million to Spanberger.
Whether some of those traditional Republicans just don’t like Earle-Sears, or simply don’t like her chances, is hard to say. All we know is that she’s not getting the kind of financial support you’d expect a Republican candidate for governor in Virginia to get.
Lieutenant governor: Hashmi has seven times as much money as Reid
This period: Hashmi $1,392,462; Reid $374,493
Cash on hand: Hashmi $2,191,216; Reid $316,991
For the lieutenant governor’s race and attorney general’s race, I’m going to forgo the year-to-date figures because the two Democratic nominees had to raise and spend money to win their respective primaries, so it seems misleading to use those as a comparison with Republicans who didn’t have to do the same.
Ghazala Hashmi won the Democratic primary narrowly, but she’s swamping Reid in fundraising. Her figures strike me as “normal” amounts, but Reid is clearly underfunded. Of course, Reid got off to a rough start when Youngkin tried to push him off the ticket. How much of Reid’s underfunding is due to Republican reluctance to support a gay candidate? I don’t know. Statistically, no holding-back shows up in the public polling. I’ve seen Reid in action on the campaign trail and haven’t seen any either. From what I’ve seen, Reid is running the best campaign of the six statewide candidates — he seems to be holding more events than his two Republican ticketmates put together. He’s also drawn a Democratic opponent who, according to the recent Virginia Commonwealth University poll, is particularly weak with independents. But does he have the money to capitalize on that? Ask me after the election.
Attorney general: Miyares is the bright spot for Republicans but Jones shows strength
This period: Jones $4,045,714; Miyares $3,762,903
Cash on hand: Miyares $7,090,125, Jones $3,749,903
Here’s a case where both sides have a talking point in their favor. Jones outraised Miyares during the summer, but Miyares has almost twice as much money in the bank. Of the two measures, I’d definitely prefer the latter, although the former suggests that Miyares’ financial advantage might dwindle as the fall goes on. Notice that during July and August, Jones raised almost as much money in his AG’s race as Earle-Sears did in her governor’s race. Again, she’s been a weak fundraiser, but Jones might be a strong one for a lower-ballot office. He raised almost three times as much money during this period than Democratic incumbent Mark Herring did four years ago.
Both Democrats and Republicans have good reason to invest in an attorney general’s race. The attorney general has real power and, in the age of Donald Trump, a Democratic attorney general can spend a lot of time suing the Trump administration. Democrats could really use a sweep while Republicans really need to hold onto something. We’ve heard chatter for a long time now about a split ticket this fall, with Spanberger winning the governor’s race and Republicans hoping to “save” Miyares. For that to happen, Earle-Sears needs to keep things close — ticket-splitting is very much on the wane. Miyares’ bank account suggests he’s in a strong position to make a big push this fall. At the Labor Day speechmaking in Buena Vista, I noticed that Miyares gave a talk that went beyond simply his office. Yes, he talked about reductions in crime and fentanyl deaths, two things an attorney general can be expected to focus on. However, he also talked about how Youngkin had led a “Virginia comeback” by reversing the state’s unfavorable demographic trends that had been more people moving out than moving in. I remember thinking at the time, “That sounds like a speech a candidate for governor might make.” Maybe Miyares already has his sights on 2029 — win or lose — or maybe he’s trying to create the circumstances where candidates are hanging onto his coattails.
House of Delegates: Democrats have Republicans playing defense
The state Senate isn’t on the ballot this year, but all 100 seats in the House of Delegates are. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 advantage but, feeling bullish, have officially targeted 14 Republican-held districts. Of those, Democratic candidates have more money in the bank in five of them.
Those five are:
HD 22 (Prince William): Elizabeth Guzman $233,146; Ian Lovejoy $104,279
HD 41 (Montgomery, Roanoke County): Lily Franklin $226,274, Chris Obenshain $75,819
HD 71 (Williamsburg area): Jessica Anderson $371,408, Amanda Batten $331,530
HD 82: (Petersburg area) Kimberly Pope Adams $122,721, Kim Taylor $$31,734
HD 86 (Hampton area) Virgil Gene Thornton $137,979, A.C. Cordoza $112,093
In the eight targeted races, the Democratic challengers outraised the Republican incumbent over the summer, raising the prospect that they might do the same in the fall as well, and wind up with more money to spend.
Those eight:
HD 30 (Loudoun, Fauquier): John McAuliff has outraised Geary Higgins
HD 34 (Harrisonburg, Rockingham) Andrew Payton has outraised Tony Wilt
HD 57 (Henrico, Goochland) May Nivar has outraised David Owen
HD 64 (Stafford County) Stacey Carroll has outraised Paul Milde
HD 66 (Caroline County) Nicole Cole has outraised Bobby Orrock
HD 69 (York County area) Mark Downey has outraised Chad Green
HD 73 (Chesterfield County) Leslie Mehta has outraised Mark Earley Jr.
HD 89 (Chesapeake/Suffolk) Kacey Carnegie has outraised Mike Lameona (this is an open seat; all the other outraised Republicans are incumbents).
The other targeted district where the Republican has outraised the Democrat is HD 75 in Chesterfield, Hopewell and Prince George County where incumbent Carrie Coyner has the financial advantage over Democratic challenger Lindsey Dougherty.
Republicans, in turn, have focused on four Democratic-held seats (HD 21 — Josh Thomas of Prince William County; HD 65 — Joshua Cole of Fredericksburg; HD84 — Nadarius Clark of Suffolk; HD 97 — Michael Feggans of Virginia Beach), but the Democratic incumbent have outraised the Republicans challengers and have more money in all those.
House of Delegates: Money is pouring into the Franklin-Obenshain race
Two years ago, many Democratic donors wrote off Franklin because they didn’t think a Democrat west of the Blue Ridge could win. Franklin came close, though, despite being underfunded. She lost by just 183 votes. This year, Democrats are pouring money into her campaign, and Republicans are responding in kind.
During the summer, only three Democratic challengers across the state raised more money than Franklin. And only five other Republican candidates — challengers or incumbents — raised more money than Obenshain. Franklin raised $353,086; Obenshain $241,567. That total of $594,653 makes that race the third-most expensive in the state so far. The other two: The HD 22 race in Prince William County between Guzman and Lovejoy totals out to $829,678; the HD 57 race in the Richmond suburbs between Owens and Nivar stands at $681,291.
Despite Obenshain’s healthy fundraising, Franklin still goes into the fall with a cash advantage of $226,274 to $75,819.
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