Asked once why he didn’t call many pass plays, legendary Ohio State football coach Woody Hayes said only three things can happen on a pass — and two of them are bad.
Looking at Virginia’s September weather historically, it would often seem only three things can happen — and, taken to their extremes, all three of them could be bad.
After three weeks with little or no rain across most of Virginia, last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor map showed 86% of the state in at least “abnormally dry” conditions and about 12% in “moderate drought,” mostly in Central Virginia, including nearly all of Appomattox County and parts of Buckingham, Campbell, Charlotte and Nelson counties stretching northward toward Charlottesville.
A coastal low-pressure system has provided varying degrees of relief for a dry September across Virginia over the last couple of days, ranging from heavy rain in the eastern tier to sporadic sprinkles west of the Blue Ridge. While the low was able to pull slugs of moisture off warm seas into the eastern part of Virginia, its circulation was also pulling down cool, dry air from the northeast over the western side of the state, limiting rainfall.
For most of Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area, this wasn’t much help with the ongoing dryness — and presently there is no indication of widespread, soaking rain in the foreseeable future, roughly seven to 10 days in weather.
Two out of three are bad
In Woody Hayes’ philosophy on passing, an interception and an incomplete pass were the two bad outcomes, while a completed pass was the only good one.
September weather patterns affecting our region tend to fit in one of three categories:
- Cool, dry air masses behind early fall-like cold fronts.
- Hot, dry air masses underneath heat-dome high pressure lingering from or rebuilding after summer.
- Supersoaked, tropical-influenced patterns of big downpours and flooding rain.
Many would say cool and dry — which has been the early tilt in September for us — is the good outcome of the three, while the other two are bad. But if the dry part of cool and dry goes on too long, we can easily slip into drought.
Balance is difficult to find in September weather historically, particularly with rainfall. It’s too early on the back side of the calendar for the jet stream to have much chance of being displaced so far south for a train of wet storm systems moving across the southern tier of the nation, like you might see by November or December. It’s also a little late for the type of convection we get through the summer months with a more widespread coverage or repeated days of heavier storms.
So. it’s often the case that the only means of significant widespread rainfall comes with tropical systems, which are scarce right now — mostly a blessing. When these do happen, they often dump too much rain in too short a time, as with Hurricane Helene late last September, and as recently as early July in Halifax County with Tropical Storm Chantal.
Every month of the 12 has considerable variance in rainfall totals year to year, but August through November generally have more occurrences at the extreme wet and dry ends of monthly totals than most of the rest of the year.
Roanoke, for example, has had as little as 0.15 inch of rain in September (1991) and as much as 12.06 inches (1945). Since 2000, September rainfall has varied from 0.23 inch in 2005 to 11.72 inches in 2004. Rainfall in the Star City is just under half an inch at the midway point of this September.
Lynchburg has varied even more, from 0.02 inch in September 1978 to 12.57 inches in September 1996, the latter bolstered by Hurricane Fran. Currently, the Hill City is not quite up to a quarter-inch at this point in September.
Abingdon’s official records only go back a little more than a half-century to 1971, but the wettest September on record was last year, at 10.69 inches — most of that due to Hurricane Helene’s influence. Just five years earlier, Abingdon collected only 0.34 inch of rain in September, the second driest, surpassed only by 0.29 inch in 1985.
Cool-air imports from Canada
This particular September has been dominated by cooler, drier air masses slipping down from Canada, bringing an early taste of fall-like low temperatures on several days.
Some days in the past week have been warmer in the afternoon and not quite as cool in the morning, as somewhat summerlike high pressure has tried to build back. But this, too, has been dry.
Once the coastal low moves off to the northeast away from Virginia, there isn’t much indication of any sort of widespread soaking rainfall that will soon be needed. A couple of even middling rainfalls would help the fall colors pop more brilliantly and quell the fire danger that may develop if dryness continues, the leaves start falling and windier cold fronts arrive later in the season.
But the flip side is that we’ve had many genuinely nice days to get outdoors and do outside things. It’ll get a tad hot toward the latter part of this week with many highs in the 80s — maybe a spot or two scraping 90 — before a weekend cold front shaves some degrees off the temperatures again.
For now, this front looks likely to pass dry, or nearly so, with maybe a few sprinkly showers developing with its passage.
It is a great time to take advantage of the dry days and mostly pleasant temperatures for outside fun or work, while we have it. We need rain — but as last year showed, conditions can turn way too soggy very quickly, hopefully not nearly on the scale of what Helene wrought.
Just as your favorite team’s quarterback will probably end up throwing completions, incompletions and interceptions in the same game, all three common late-summer and early-fall weather patterns can end up happening.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:
