Virginians are feeling better about the economy, which could boost Republicans in the upcoming elections, but that’s all relative, because they’re still feeling pretty bad overall, which could boost Democrats.
The political analysis is mine but the economic data comes from the quarterly Roanoke College poll on consumer sentiment that was released Thursday.
How consumers are feeling is important because they — we — account for about 70% of the U.S. economy. If we’re feeling good, we spend more money. If we’re not, we don’t, so in many ways consumer sentiment is a better economic forecast than anything Wall Street might produce. Of course, how people feel is not the same as hard data, even though people’s feelings may turn into hard data depending on their spending or lack thereof. We have lots of examples throughout history of candidates who lost even though the economy was improving statistically, but consumers — voters — hadn’t felt that improvement yet.
In this statewide survey, Roanoke College found that consumer sentiment improved to 64.6 on its 100-point scale — but this was still the third-lowest score since the school started these measures in 2011.
Some context: In 36 surveys from 2012 to 2021, consumer sentiment was always in the 80s and 90s, and sometimes the high 90s, with three scores in the 98-point-something range. Even in the early months of the pandemic, consumer sentiment remained in the 80s, and sometimes rose. From August 2020 onward, it’s been falling, slipping into the 70s in August 2021 and then hitting a low point of 58.2 in May 2022.
From those of you keeping score at home, that drop coincides with the rise of inflation under President Joe Biden — something that Democrats ignored or downplayed at their peril. Consumer sentiment rose again as inflation fell, reaching 77.6 in November 2024. To the extent that economics and politics are intertwined, that was obviously high enough for Kamala Harris to carry Virginia in the presidential election.
In the first three polls under Donald Trump, though, consumer sentiment in Virginia has sunk back into the 60s: 64.7 in February, 63.6 in May and now 64.6 in August.
Directionally, that slight improvement is good news for Republicans going into this year’s state elections, where we’ll elect a new governor and all 100 members of the House of Delegates, although it may not be statistically significant — and the overall score is pretty pitiful compared to historical numbers. This is one of the reasons Democrat Abigail Spanberger is running her campaign for governor on the theme of “affordability” while Republican Winsome Earle-Sears is running on something other than the economy.
The details of this survey show why Republicans need to be wary about saying too much about the economy: People remain pretty pessimistic.
Ronald Reagan whipped Jimmy Carter in 1980 by asking “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” This poll asked how Virginians feel they’re doing financially compared to a year ago — 42.3% say they’re the same, but 36.0% say they’re worse off and only 21.7% say they’re better off.
They’re also decidedly down on the economy they see happening around them. The poll asked: “Would you say at the present time that business conditions are better off, worse off, or just about the same as they were a year ago?” A clear majority — 54.4% — said worse off while 25.9% said the same and only 19.7% said better off.
If Trump’s economic plan is working, consumers don’t feel it yet. Of course, Democrats might say they’re definitely feeling the effect of Trump’s tariffs.
Whatever the reason, consumers are not particularly optimistic about things changing any time soon: 42.5% say they expect things to be the same a year from now while 30.5% think things will get better and 27.5% think things will get worse.
When asked about specific things, consumers seemed more pessimistic than even those numbers might indicate: 58.0% say now is a bad time to make a major purchase for their home, while 65.3% expect prices to go up over the coming year.
If you’re in charge of the economy, or a business selling appliances, that 58.0% figure is not what you want to see. You want to see people in a mood to spend, spend, spend.
All this strikes me as bad news for Republicans running this year but potentially good news for Republicans running next year in the congressional midterms. Here’s why: They have a chance to triumph over low expectations (and, ultimately, Democrats). People are in such a pessimistic mood now that even a small improvement might encourage them (or not; we’ll see).
These impressions might run counter to hard data. Also on Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that the economy had grown faster in the second quarter than previously thought. That’s good news, but is it good enough? Ryan Sweet, the chief U.S. economist for the U.K.-based Oxford Economics, said the new report “doesn’t significantly alter the trajectory or the distribution of risks to our forecast for growth in the second half of the year.” In a statement to market-watchers, he said the full impact of tariffs had yet to kick in. “Odds are that the hit to corporate profit margins will be more visible in Q3,” he said.
By the time those come out, early voting in Virginia will already be underway.
See what the candidates have to say about economic issues
We sent questionnaires to all the statewide candidates and all the candidates for the House of Delegates across Virginia. Some of those questions dealt with economic issues. Find their answers, and see who’s on your ballot, on our Voter Guide. Early voting begins Sept. 19.
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