Five years into Virginia’s renewable energy overhaul, it’s time we pause and ask ourselves: are we actually better off? The Virginia Clean Economy Act, signed into law this week in 2020, promised a bold transition to a cleaner, more sustainable grid. Yet, despite billions in ratepayer investments and sweeping regulatory changes, Virginia faces higher energy costs, increased reliance on out-of-state power, a looming reliability crisis, and an additional $5.5 billion in renewable portfolio compliance costs passed along to ratepayers over the next 10 years. VCEA’s legacy won’t be reduced emissions, but rather rolling blackouts and increased electricity bills. Furthermore, these are avoidable costs that result from prescriptive mandates — not technological limitations. And now when there’s an election coming up, we finally hear from Democrats in the General Assembly that we need to revisit VCEA. Do they actually mean it, or is this just election year posturing?
VCEA requires that utilities generate 100% of their electricity from renewable sources by 2050, using a Renewable Portfolio Standard that mandates specific amounts of renewable energy or triggers costly deficiency payments and forced purchases of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs). These mandates effectively force utilities to prioritize renewables over other clean technologies — including carbon-free nuclear power and natural gas with carbon capture — when making investment decisions.
Therein lies the real perversity of VCEA’s structure. It pushes utilities to prioritize intermittent renewables over other proven clean technologies — even when those alternatives offer deeper emissions reductions and higher reliability. Supporters tout projected savings from renewables, while ignoring the hidden system costs: backup generation, long-distance transmission, and reliability penalties from weather-dependent electricity. There were tough lessons learned from Spain’s power blackout caused by their primarily renewable energy portfolio, without the baseload or dispatchable generation to help balance the grid.
Americans are innovators — and we should embrace the innovation that private industry champions. Before VCEA passed in 2020, Virginia’s power sector carbon emissions intensity has declined by more than 50% from 2005 through market-driven transitions and technological improvements — progress that didn’t require rigid mandates or massive rate hikes. Yet VCEA supporters often credit the law with emissions reductions that were already well underway.
Today, Virginia imports over 35% of its electricity — more than any other state — often from coal-burning plants in neighboring states. Meanwhile, we’re facing unprecedented regional energy demand growth across PJM territory, not just in Virginia. Cloud computing, advanced manufacturing, AI development and electrification are driving up demand across the Mid-Atlantic, while fossil fuel plant retirements reduce available supply. VCEA was designed for 1-2% annual growth in energy demand, not the 6.5% we’re experiencing today, nor the doubling of our total demand within the next decade.
There is no model that has been built, nor can one be built that shows Virginia’s ability to meet its energy demand while adhering to VCEA’s mandates. It just isn’t possible.
For perspective, Virginia would need to cover 230 square miles with solar panels by 2035 — roughly four times the size of Washington, D.C. — to meet solar mandates alone. Even then, we’d fall short during peak demand because solar operates at a capacity factor of 25% compared to 93% of nuclear. This isn’t ideology; it’s physics.
We cannot solve this challenge by pretending growth is the problem. Discouraging investment or slowing economic progress is not the answer. Virginia’s unprecedented $120 billion in new private-sector investment since 2022 is something to build on, not back away from. The real solution lies in updating our energy policies to reflect this moment of opportunity and scale.
Given Virginia’s proximity to Washington, military installations, world-class broadband infrastructure, and robust supply chains, it’s no wonder digital infrastructure gravitates to the Commonwealth. But that’s only part of the picture. Energy demand is growing across the region while dispatchable generation is shrinking, due to planned retirements in line with renewable energy policies. We can either embrace the future and ensure we have the infrastructure to support it or watch economic opportunity shift to states that do.
This blind spot is particularly glaring when it comes to natural gas, which is often dismissed as a “bridge fuel,” rather than a backbone of modern, stable grids. Virginia’s existing gas infrastructure has been critical during extreme weather and peak demand, and innovations like carbon capture enable us to pair its reliability with serious emissions reductions — achieving our goals faster and more affordably than through intermittent sources alone. Overlooking these tools in favor of outdated mandates is a costly mistake we can’t afford to keep repeating.
Solar and wind have important roles in Virginia’s energy future — but their intermittency, land use requirements, and reliance on foreign supply chains are significant concerns, not to mention the significant issue of recycling capabilities and waste of toxic components. Additionally, it’s dishonest to only highlight the positives of renewables. Let’s be honest about the limitations, and the toxic and carbon-emitting processes in the full life cycle of renewables in our discussions and policies.
Even at the federal level, there’s growing bipartisan recognition that reliability and decarbonization are not mutually exclusive. Recent actions from both the Trump and Biden administrations have affirmed that nuclear energy and natural gas — especially when paired with carbon capture — are indispensable to any serious clean energy strategy. There is global momentum behind these solutions. The real outlier is clinging to mandates that exclude them or disincentivize these technologies.
The ultimate irony? Even if Virginia builds all the solar and wind VCEA mandates, we’ll still import large amounts of high-emissions electricity from neighboring states — often from coal-burning plants. Carbon doesn’t stop at the border. Declaring ourselves “clean” while relying on someone else’s pollution is just costly theater.
We don’t need to guess what might work, we already have the technologies to succeed. What we lack are policies that let them compete. We don’t move forward by limiting growth. We move forward by planning for it — and by building an energy system that’s ready to meet the moment. That means facts over politics, performance over ideology, and innovation over prescription. Virginia’s future depends on it.
Glenn Davis is director of the Virginia Department of Energy.
