Dig this meteorological illogic: A cold front passing through Thursday is going to lead to the hottest weather we’ve seen so far in 2025.
And in the process of that, we’ll finally get a sticky front unglued that has brought on wave after wave of showers and thunderstorms for several days, with perhaps one last round of particularly testy storms on Thursday.
These are some colorful words to say typical summer patterns, alternating from sticky-stormy in recent days to hot and dry next week, are in full force as the astronomical calendar catches up on Friday with the meteorological and cultural calendars and summer begins in full.
· The summer heat prediction contest closes for entries at 11:59 p.m. on Thursday night. See this previous weather column linked here for how to enter.
While just about every spot in Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area has had rain a few times in the past week, some locations have had flooding downpours for short periods of time.
Northern Rockbridge County was hammered by heavy rain late Friday, parts of Franklin County saw inches of rain collect in a couple hours on Sunday, and by Monday, photos showed flooded creeks in the Eagle Rock area of Botetourt County. There was also a report of someone who got stuck in a chicken coop by Highland County flooding on Monday.
A ‘sticky’ front
This has occurred as what was once a cold front has become stalled near and across our region, with waves of weak low pressure moving along that front to kick off periodic rounds of showers and storms.
A “sticky” front like this — sticky for being stuck and for humid air hanging along it — is not uncommon in summer months, as the steering flow that guides storm systems most of the year lifts northward and often leaves fronts stranded in the middle latitudes of the continental U.S. rather than cleanly pushing through.
There have also been sporadic reports of localized wind damage with some of the stronger storms, and a few storms here and there have exhibited suspicious rotation and lowerings from time to time, though as of this writing, there have been no confirmed tornadoes in our region. Atmospheric shear and overall instability haven’t been quite high enough for a higher-end tornado risk.
It is possible that Thursday will bring the greatest severe storms threat of the week as a decently vigorous cold front presses into warm to hot temperatures and humid air. An upper-level trough of low pressure may supply enough shifting winds aloft to give some storms spin, which raises the potential for damaging winds, large hail and perhaps even a few tornadoes.
But the region affected is large and the core for greatest instability — the ability of warm and moist air near the surface to rise into colder air aloft — and shear — the changing of wind direction and speed with height — appears to be mostly north of our region, posing a potentially hazardous severe weather threat across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Be prepared for the potential of severe storms on Thursday, but don’t be surprised if they happen somewhere else besides exactly where you live.
The heat is on
The cold front will sweep out the stickiness of this week and bring in drier air for the weekend into next week.
While the cold front will bring a brief retreat in temperatures by a few degrees on Friday after Thursday scrapes 90 in a few locations, it will also help enable a pattern of high pressure becoming stagnant over much of the eastern part of the U.S.
This will bring what could potentially be our first heat wave of the season, with highs possibly pushing into the mid 90s in the lower elevations in our region as soon as Sunday and Monday.
Once the hot high-pressure system gets locked in over us, it may have some staying power, perhaps most of the rest of the month of June. The jet stream will be dipping over the West and may send some fronts eastward that could erode the heat dome, and that could trigger showers and storms. But that’s all iffy at this point.
While we have had enough rain to keep our region out of significant drought for quite a while, it’s starting to look like what has been a tolerably mild to warm May and June is about to shift toward stifling heat.
But we may have to go through some more rumbles, gusts and downpours before that sets in.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:
