Earle-Sears might benefit more from a big voter turnout than Spanberger. Here’s how.

We begin with one basic fact: Only about half of Virginia’s registered voters will bother to cast a ballot in this year’s election for governor.

On the night of Nov. 4, we’ll know how that half of the electorate felt about who the next governor should be, Democrat Abigail Spanberger or Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.

What, though, about the other half that won’t vote? Put another way, who would a larger turnout benefit — Democrats or Republicans?

Over the years, it’s been axiomatic that a large turnout favors Democrats and a small turnout favors Republicans. That might have been true once, but it is no longer. As voters have realigned, with Democrats becoming more white collar and Republicans more blue collar, that has changed the presumptions of who non-voters would vote for if they could be persuaded to turn out. 

A Knight Foundation study of the 2016 presidential election found that non-voters had the same profile as Trump voters — predominantly white, less educated and making less money than those who did vote. Nate Silver is probably the best (and certainly most famous) number-cruncher of current elections. His most recent newsletter dissects some studies of the 2024 vote, and he comes to the conclusion that a larger turnout last year would not have helped Kamala Harris or Democrats in general: “Harris and Tim Walz performed poorly among the exact sort of infrequent voters that Democrats once counted on for higher turnout.” This is a big warning sign for Democrats as they try to figure out how to win future elections: “If Democrats don’t have a persuasive message to marginal voters, they can’t really solve that problem with higher turnout,” Silver writes. “In fact, they may often be rooting against it.”

He’s looking ahead to 2028, but we have an election here in Virginia this year, so what does all this mean for us? We have two recent polls — one from Roanoke College, one on behalf of the pro-business group Virginia FREE — that offer some clues. First, though, let’s review some history:

The so-called Motor Voter Law of 1993, which allowed people to register to vote when they’re issued a driver’s license, expanded the electorate but also drove down turnout because a lot of those new voters simply don’t vote. In Virginia, turnout in a presidential election post-Motor Voter has usually been about 70%, with the high point being 75% in 2020 when the choice was Joe Biden or Donald Trump. 

Gubernatorial elections historically draw few voters — although I’d argue that the state government touches our lives in as many ways, if not more ways, than the federal government. Since Motor Voter, turnout in a governor’s race has only topped 50% once — four years ago.

Trump’s first election triggered a swing toward Democrats in Virginia but didn’t necessarily drive up turnout all that much. In 2013, pre-Trump, turnout was 43.0%. In 2017, a year after Trump’s first election, it bumped up to 47.6%. The big surge came four years ago, when it jumped to 54.9%.

That increase came largely from Republican voters, especially in rural areas, and even more especially in Southwest Virginia. (You can see all those numbers on this chart from the Virginia Public Access Project.) Four years ago, a bigger turnout definitely benefited Republicans, although that was not necessarily because turnout was simply bigger, but because marginal Republican voters in rural areas came out more enthusiastically than marginal Democratic voters in more urban ones. In many Democratic localities, the turnout in 2021 stayed at 2017 levels, while turnout in Republican localities rose dramatically in many Republican communities — up 15 percentage points in Russell County, for instance, and up 13 percentage points in Tazewell County. If those marginal Democratic voters in urban areas had come out, the turnout would have been even higher, and Democrat Terry McAuliffe might have won — so when we’re talking big turnout vs. small turnout, we really need to ask which voters are coming out and which ones aren’t. It can go either way.

With that backdrop, let’s look at the most recent polls.

You’ve already seen the headlines: The Roanoke College poll of registered voters gave Spanberger a lead of 17 percentage points; the Virginia FREE poll of just likely voters gave Spanberger a lead of 4 percentage points. That suggests a larger turnout this year in Virginia would benefit Spanberger. However, let’s dig deeper.

I like to err on the side of practicality, and, as a practical matter, we know that not all those registered voters will bother to show up — so let’s look at who is likely to show up. This is where the Virginia FREE poll (conducted jointly by both a Democratic pollster and a Republican pollster) has some fascinating data.

The pollsters asked those responding to the poll to rank their likelihood of voting on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being “not interested” and 10 being “very interested.”

Pollster Amanda Iovino (the Republican) says in her experience, if anyone puts their likelihood at less than 7, they’re not really likely to vote, so that means we can focus on just those who gave the higher scores.

Of those surveyed, 39% gave a 10 rating of “very interested” — and those voters this year are strongly Democratic. Of the Democrats who responded, 47% said they were at the 10 level of interest, but among Republicans, only 35% were. If only those who are “very interested” right now voted, Spanberger would win in a landslide. This is in keeping with history: In governor’s races, Virginians tend to go with the party out of power in Washington — so right now Democrats are more fired up while Republicans, having just won, are more complacent.

When pollsters looked at a larger sample, those who rated their interest at 7 and higher, the Democratic margin shrank: 82% of Democrats put themselves in the 7-10 range, 77% of Republicans did. That’s still an advantage for Democrats, but not nearly as much of one.

The conclusion: A larger turnout, one that brings in more of those voters who ranked their interest level in the election lower, benefits Earle-Sears.

Another curious detail that suggests a larger turnout benefits Earle-Sears: The Virginia FREE poll looked at the state’s four biggest TV markets — Washington, Richmond, Norfolk and Roanoke-Lynchburg. The highest voter interest is in Norfolk, but the lowest is in Roanoke-Lynchburg. That’s bad news for Republicans because that Roanoke-Lynchburg market reaches some of the reddest areas of the state in Southwest (just not all of Southwest) and Southside. 

The specific numbers:

In the Norfolk market, 45% said they were very interested. In the Roanoke-Lynchburg market, 35% were. 

When those numbers were expanded to the 7-10 range, 81% in the Norfolk market said they were, compared to 72% in the Roanoke-Lynchburg market.

Now for some nuance.

Among those “very interested,” the Washington market (which would cover Northern Virginia) was fairly low, with just 38% being engaged at the highest level.

When the interest level was expanded to the 7-10 range, the Washington market rose to 79%, almost even with Norfolk.

This points to how “lumpy” the vote can be. 

If you’re a Democrat, you see that strongly Democratic Northern Virginia isn’t as fully engaged as much as you’d like, but could be persuaded. That means Democrats need to work on reminding Northern Virginians that this is an election year — and, most likely, using the specter of Trump as a motivator for those potential Democratic voters.

If you’re a Republican, you see the need to energize voters in Southwest and Southside — but must still fret that even with the 7-10 scale, the Roanoke-Lynchburg TV market is still less engaged than anywhere else.

That’s why we shouldn’t think of turnout simply in “high” or “low” terms but in terms of who and where. A high turnout in Northern Virginia likely benefits Spanberger. A high turnout in Southwest and Southside likely benefits Earle-Sears.

Maybe if every registered voter showed up, then the Roanoke College poll would be the operative one — and Spanberger would win big. That’s why we really ought to look at turnout in increments — if only the 10s in the Virginia FREE poll vote, that benefits Spanberger. If the electorate expands to the 7s, 8s and 9s, then Earle-Sears closes the gap. If it’s primarily 7s, 8s and 9s from Northern Virginia, she won’t. If it’s primarily 7s, 8s and 9s from Southwest and Southside, she’d have an advantage. However, if the electorate expands beyond that to all registered voters, then Spanberger has the advantage again. 

However, we know there’s never a case where all registered voters cast ballots, so I’m more inclined to look at the Virginia FREE poll. The main takeaway from that is it really depends on where that larger turnout is coming from. Is it from Fairfax County or Franklin County? Prince William County or Pulaski County? Loudoun County or Lee County? 

This is where Earle-Sears canceling two appearances this year in Washington County matters. She may have had good reasons for both cancellations, but the bottom line is she wasn’t there — but potential Republican votes are. She needs to amp up that turnout in Southwest Virginia just as Youngkin did — and maybe then some, to account for population shifts and the Trump factor in Northern Virginia. 

Politics is full of irony, and here’s a big one: This is why Republicans would benefit from something they’ve often been reluctant to embrace — early voting. 

Even with higher turnouts than usual in Republican-voting rural areas four years ago, the turnout in most rural areas remained lower than the turnout rates in more Democratic areas. For instance, only 40% of the registered voters in deep red Buchanan County voted. That was certainly better than the 30% who had voted four years earlier, but still far less than the 64% who turned out in deep blue Falls Church. If Republicans could have coaxed more rural voters to come out at the same rate as many Democratic localities, they’d have won by even more in 2021. If they did that in 2025, they could win, no matter what the polls say right now. One way to do that is to persuade more rural voters to take advantage of a longer voting window.

I’ll look at some of the other findings in the Virginia FREE poll in this week’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter that goes out Friday afternoons. You can sign up for that or any of our other newsletters here: