Yes, I know, I find it hard to believe, too, but we have another election already underway.
Early voting begins Friday for the June 17 primaries. For those of you who aren’t up at dawn to read what’s in our daily newsletter, that means by the time you read this some votes have already been cast — which means somebody’s already ahead and somebody’s already behind.
This year’s primaries involve two statewide nominations (the Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general), some House of Delegates nominations (eight Republican primaries, nine Democratic ones) and some local offices (nine Democratic ones, 15 Republican ones).
1. Our updated Voter Guide is now live, featuring Q&As with many of these candidates
You can find information on who’s running in the statewide and House primaries across the state — as well as the local candidates in Cardinal’s home turf in Southwest and Southside — on our Voter Guide. As we did last year, we sent questionnaires to all these candidates and have published their responses (or, in a few cases, lack thereof). Several campaigns who haven’t filled theirs in yet say they will do so. The questionnaires for the statewide candidates are on the main Voter Guide page; the ones for House of Delegates and local offices are on the pages of whatever county or city they’re in. We have links to all those county and city pages on the main Voter Guide page; think of that as the front door that provides information for every Virginian, with the individual county and city pages tailored to the races in that locality. For now, we only have those pages for localities that either have a House primary or local primary in Southwest and Southside.
Once we get past the primary, we’ll add the rest and send questionnaires to all candidates on the November ballot seeking statewide offices and all 100 House seats, as well as local offices in Southwest and Southside. For now, first things first. The immediate focus is on the candidates who are running in primaries.
Attention, candidates who haven’t filled out the questionnaire yet: If you need us to resend the link, just let us know at elections@cardinalnews.org.
2. The Republican ticket is set; Democrats have 12 options
Both parties are in a rare position: They both know who their candidate for governor will be — former Rep. Abigail Spanberger for the Democrats, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears for the Republicans. Republicans are in even a rarer position: They already know the lineup of their entire ticket. Attorney General Jason Miyares is seeking reelection, and the two-candidate primary for lieutenant governor was canceled when Pat Herrity dropped out for health reasons, automatically making Richmond talk show host John Reid the nominee.
Democrats, by contrast, have six candidates for lieutenant governor (Falls Church attorney Alex Bastani, Richmond state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, Prince William County school board chair Babur Lateef, Virginia Beach state Sen. Aaron Rouse, former federal prosecutor Victor Salgado, former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney), and two for attorney general (former Norfolk Del. Jay Jones and Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor).
Of those six, Bastini and Salgado are the least-known and the least-funded. Stoney has led the fundraising, but Rouse had the most cash on hand in the most recent campaign finance report.
In the attorney general’s race, Jones has led the fundraising and has the advantage of having run once before; he ran four years ago and lost the nomination to Mark Herring.
Depending on how the results break, some history could be made. Hashmi or Lateef would be the first Muslim to be nominated on a statewide ticket in Virginia. If Hashmi and Taylor win, Democrats would have the state’s first all-female ticket. If the winners are Rouse and Jones or Stoney and Jones, Democrats would be the first major party in Virginia to nominate two Black candidates on the same ticket.
You can read about where these candidates stand on our main Voter Guide page.
3. Democrats are moving toward repealing “right-to-work”
For many years, Virginia Democrats avoided advocating an outright repeal of the state law that forbids compulsory payment of union dues if there’s a union in the workplace. That’s no longer the case. Spanberger has not called for repeal, but all six of her potential running mates do. So do most (although not all) of the Democrats running in primaries who answered our questionnaire. Earle-Sears has already signaled that she’d like to make “right-to-work” a key part of her campaign. It’s unclear how salient that will be with voters; in 2006, Virginia voters surprised many by rejecting a proposed constitutional amendment that would have enshrined “right-to-work” into the state constitution. Even more surprising was the number of conservative rural counties that voted against the measure. In any case, we’re now seeing more Democrats openly advocate repeal. Republicans who are convinced that can be a winning issue will be as excited to see that as some Democrats are.
4. Some Republicans are open to legalizing retail sales of cannabis
In the General Assembly, virtually all Republicans have voted against legalized sales — Dels. Will Morefield of Tazewell County and Chris Obenshain of Montgomery County are notable exceptions. However, some Republicans have been reluctant to support legalizing retail cannabis because they knew that Gov. Glenn Youngkin would veto the bill (as he has twice now). Others have simply disagreed with Democrats about how such a market should be regulated. We don’t have questionnaires back from enough Republican candidates to pronounce a trend, but it’s notable to me that we’re seeing some edge that way.
Both Del. Terry Austin, R-Botetourt County, and his primary challenger, Austin Schwend, express some degree of hesitant acceptance.
Austin: “I have reservations legalizing recreational cannabis. If regulated properly, and law enforcement is given the training and resources it needs to properly test for impaired driving, I could possibly agree. As for its sale, my preference would be for it to be dispensed under state control in ABC stores, along with alcohol.”
Schwend: “It could be feasible to treat cannabis like we already handle alcohol.”
Hailey Louise Shupe-Dollar, one of two Republicans seeking the nomination in District 70 in Newport News, is even more open to the concept: “The legalization of the retail sale of cannabis has been proven in other states to have the potential to boost the local economy and lead to increased funding for community projects and funding for schools.”
5. Only three incumbents face challenges
We’re not seeing much mood for change within party ranks. Two Democrats (Patrick Hope in Arlington County and Delores McQuinn in Henrico County) and one Republican (Austin in Botetourt County) face challengers. None of those challengers are particularly well-financed. Cardinal’s Elizabeth Beyer writes about Austin and his challenger in this story.
6. Two districts have double primaries
The retirements of Danny Marshall, D-Danville, and Baxter Ennis, R-Chesaspeake, have led to both parties holding primaries in the same district. (Sorry, you can only vote in one.)
7. In many districts, these primaries are tantamount to election
Many of these House primaries are happening in districts that are either bright red or bright blue, so while there might be an opponent on the fall ballot, it’s really the primary that determines who the next legislator from that district will be. That’s the case in another open seat — the one that Jed Arnold, R-Smyth County, is retiring from. Mitchell Cornett and Adam Tolbert are the candidates for the Republican nomination there; the winner will face Democrat Jamie Ralston Hendry, but here’s the unfavorable math for any Democrat in that district: The weakest Republican county in that district is Pulaski County, where Donald Trump took 71.75% of the vote last fall. In Wythe, he took 79.23%, Smyth, 79.63% and in Grayson, 80.60%.
8. Three primaries are in districts that are clearly competitive in the fall
Those three are:
House District 21 in Prince William County. There’s a three-way Republican primary for the right to run against Democrat Josh Thomas, who won two years ago with 51.72% of the vote.
House District 89 in Chesapeake and Suffolk, where Ennis, a Republican, is retiring. As noted above, there are two-way primaries on both sides. Ennis won last time with 50.76% of the vote.
House District 97 in Virginia Beach, where there’s a two-way Republican primary for the right to run against Democrat Michael Feggans, who won in 2023 with 52.37%
If Republicans are to regain the majority in the House, their route likely runs through those districts, so who wins the primary could prove particularly important.
9. Virginia will likely see very low turnout in most parts of Southwest Virginia
With no statewide Republican primary, that means the only thing on the ballot in many parts of Virginia will be the two statewide Democratic primaries — for lieutenant governor and attorney general. Given how weak the Democratic Party is in rural Virginia, it will be curious to see what the turnout is like.
The widespread use of early voting has made it difficult to do precinct-level analysis of some election returns, such as the 2021 elections, because not until more recently did state law require early votes be counted as part of the voters’ regular precinct.
To get around that, I went back to the 2017 Democratic primaries, when there were primaries for governor and lieutenant governor and the party was a wee bit stronger in rural areas. That year the Oakwood precinct in Buchanan County didn’t have a single voter in the Democratic primary; the Cooks Mill precinct in Russell County just had one, the Fox precinct in Buchanan County only two, and the Keokee and Robbins Chapel precincts in Lee County three apiece.
With only two down-ballot races, how many zero-vote precincts will we have this time?
An exception will be in the parts of Southwest Virginia that fall under House District 46, where Cornett and Tolbert are running for the Republican nomination.
10. The Botetourt County Board of Supervisors could see a philosophical shift
Botetourt’s board is all-Republican, but the type of Republicans on the board could change, depending on the outcome of the primary. Buchanan District Supervisor Amy White faces a more conservative challenger. Amsterdam District Supervisor Steve Clinton is retiring, and the two Republicans seeking to replace him also appear to break into conservative and more conservative camps. Victories by White and Tim Snyder in the Amsterdam District would likely preserve the current direction on council; victories by Linda Rottman in Buchanan and Dirk Padgett in Amsterdam would likely shift it further to the right.
You can read what these candidates had to say on the Botetourt County page in our Voter Guide.
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