If you want to know what the weather is going to do during the next few months, consulting with the Weaver family of the Roanoke Valley might be a good way to go.
Brad Weaver of Roanoke was among four entrants out of 110 who participated in the Cardinal Weather snowfall prediction contest who missed their two best of three season snowfall guesses by only a single combined inch. That sent the contest to the tiebreaker, which was the third pick, and Weaver emerged an inch better than Doug Howard of Lebanon (and a little farther ahead of two middle schoolers) receiving a $25 gift card as the winner of the third Cardinal Weather snowfall prediction contest.
Brad Weaver’s success follows up on years of forecast contest prowess from his mother, Janice Weaver of Roanoke County. The Weaver matriarch won the snowfall prediction contest in 2016-17 in its prior format in The Roanoke Times, then was one of seven entrants tying with the best score in the first Cardinal Weather heat prediction contest two summers ago. She followed that up with being the only adult in serious contention during last year’s snowfall contest, dominated by middle school kids from Salem.
“I think my family’s success has something to do with our love of weather and the outdoors,” Brad Weaver said.
April showers and frost
More on the snowfall contest a couple of sections later.
Winter never really came back to our region to any substantial level in a warm, dry March. But there is a touch of cold air that brought below-freezing temperatures to a large part of our region on Wednesday morning.
This is not unusual for early April in Southwest and Southside Virginia, as most locations have average last freeze dates ranging from mid-April to early May. But we did have enough warm weather in March for some budding and greening to start, and for home gardeners to start at least some seedlings.
This will not be a long-lasting blast of freezing mornings, though cool and damp weather, with lots of 40s and 50s temperatures, will hang on into the weekend.
That brings us to the other issue of the spring season so far, dryness. Early Monday brought fairly substantial rainfall of ½ to 1 ½ inches across much of our region. We needed that rain, and could have used a little more, but what we got came blessedly without the flooding and tornadoes that raked parts of the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys.
A slow-moving low-pressure trough will sweep more moisture across our region Thursday and Friday, with perhaps similar rainfall amounts to early in the week. Then it gets warm and dry next week.
April showers bring May flowers.
Winter in the rear view
As noted, there really was no winter encore in March, nor does it look likely there will be any prolonged or extreme echo of it in April. We may yet have a frosty morning or two in the next few weeks. But beyond that, it looks quite safe to declare the 2024-25 winter as history.
We’ve already discussed in previous columns how this was the coldest winter in a decade for the region and how it has been the region’s iciest winter since 1994. And of course there was the flooding in Southwest Virginia that just drew a federal disaster declaration.
What we haven’t delved into too deeply yet is the snowfall for the season. There is a list deeper down in this article of December to March snowfall totals rounded to the nearest inch at 10 locations across the region, those used in the snowfall prediction contest (with an added notation that Burke’s Garden and Clintwood got a few more inches in November). As you will see, most totals are below the long-term average, some near that average along the northern and western edges of our region where more snow fell in the two big snow-to-ice episodes.
A year ago we explored how recent regional snowfall totals had dipped to some of their lowest 5-year averages on record.
Despite a cold winter with multiple winter storms, the 5-year averages didn’t move upward too much. Roanoke, with 8.4 inches for the season, bounced from 5.6 to 7 inches, marking the first time dating back to 1912 that three consecutive winters have had a 5-year snowfall average below 10 inches. Lynchburg, with 12.4 inches, bounced up to 6.8 for a 5-year average snowfall after dipping to an all-time low 4.6 inches a year ago. This was despite Roanoke having four calendar days with at least an inch of snow, the most since 2018, and Lynchburg having five such days, the most since 2010.
Unlike the last two winters that were dominated by mild temperatures, this winter had plenty of cold patterns that were ripe for larger snowstorms. But it all came down to small quirks in the atmospheric pattern.
Two storms, on Jan. 5-6 and Feb. 11, tracked a little too far north and snow changed to ice. (The second storm did deliver 10-15 amounts along I-64 from Covington and Clifton Forge to Lexington, but not regionwide).
Two other systems, on Jan. 9 and Feb. 19-20, had a ripe pattern for development but upper-level shortwaves in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream could not quite connect and snowfall amounts were relatively light.
Throw in that odd Gulf Coast/Southeast Coast snowstorm of Jan. 20-21 that was suppressed below our latitude, and a storm that barely went to our northwest a couple days before, and this winter, for snow fans, was very much like rooting for a football team that moved inside the 20-yard-line a half-dozen times but came out with only a couple of field goals.
What this winter did show is that any rumors that winter has lost all its teeth for our region are very premature. Get high-pressure blocking patterns in the northern latitudes in the right spots, and winter can very much still be winter, even with climbing global average temperatures.
Only time will tell if this is the start of a cluster of similar winters or if we’ll revert to the mild mode of the past few.
How the contest was won
Back in November, Cardinal News readers were asked to pick three sites out of a list of 10 locations across Southwest and Southside Virginia and guess the total snowfall, to the nearest inch, between Dec. 1 and March 31. The best two picks of those who sent them in by email were considered, with the fewest number of missed inches between the two picks determining the winner. With a tie, the third pick would be considered, and if still a tie, whoever sent it in first would be considered the winner of a $25 gift card.
Weaver guessed 8 inches for Roanoke — exactly correct for the rounded total — and 10 inches for Blacksburg — one off the rounded total of 11. That tied him with three other entrants who also missed by only an inch on the total on their two best guesses.
With a tie on the two best picks, the third pick breaks the tie. Weaver picked 2 inches for Martinsville, missing the season total there — 4 inches — by only 2 inches.
Doug Howard of Lebanon also missed his two best picks by a single inch — correctly predicting Danville’s 6 inches and missing Abingdon by only 1 inch, guessing 9 when 10 fell. But his third pick, also for Martinsville, missed by three — 7 inches was his guess.
Judith Painter’s students at Andrew Lewis Middle School in Salem, who dominated the 2023-24 contest, had another strong showing, with two students each missing by only an inch and sharing the lead with Weaver and Howard. Brynn Wright had the same two guesses as Howard — 8 inches for Roanoke and 10 for Blacksburg. A second student, Kimble Reynolds, was correct on Martinsville’s 4 inches and missed Roanoke by a single inch, guessing 9. But their tiebreakers were farther off — Brynn’s 7 inches being 5 off the total of 12 in Lynchburg, and her classmate’s 4 being 7 inches off Blacksburg’s 11.
There were a cluster of seven entrants who missed their best two picks by only two combined inches. One of those was Jo Heinlein of Wytheville, who won last summer’s heat prediction contest. (Appropriately, Heinlein’s prediction was perfect for Wytheville, 9 inches.) Others include Pam Burgess of Fincastle, Hilary Hozey of Blacksburg, Glenna Kennett of Roanoke. Randy Muse of Vinton, Matt Pruitt of Roanoke, and Scott Schlesser of Hardy.
In all, a total of 32 entrants missed by 6 inches or less. The field as a whole seemed to do well picking snowfall numbers that were somewhat larger than the last two winters but not excessively large. Those who went with the extremely low or extremely high numbers did not do well in this year’s competition.
“I came to a lower than average snowfall prediction based on low snow amounts from recent winters along with the possible influence of La Niña,” Brad Weaver said.
The La Niña turned out to be late and weak, but, as discussed above, a winter of frequent cold patterns could not quite put the pieces together for a widespread major snowfall.
As for my own picks, they are listed below. My numbers for specific sites vary in their accuracy, but overall, I was pleased with the general idea of my winter forecast (linked here) that it would be a colder winter than previous years but would have some trouble lining up big snow chances.
Abingdon, Dec.-March total: 10. Kevin’s pick: 12. Average: 13.
Appomattox, Dec.-March total: 13. Kevin’s pick: 6 . Average: 13 .
Blacksburg, Dec.-March total: 11. Kevin’s pick: 15. Average: 21.
Burke’s Garden, Dec.-March total: 27. Kevin’s pick: 35. Average: 38.
Clintwood, Dec.-March total: 37. Kevin’s pick: 33. Average: 36.
Danville, Dec.-March total: 6. Kevin’s pick: 3. Average: 7.
Lynchburg, Dec.-March total: 12. Kevin’s pick: 8. Average: 15.
Martinsville, Dec.-March total: 4. Kevin’s pick: 4. Average: 9.
Roanoke, Dec.-March total: 8. Kevin’s pick: 10. Average: 18.
Wytheville, Dec-March total: 9. Kevin’s pick: 15. Average: 19.
Burke’s Garden and Clintwood each received snowfall in November, raising their totals for the entire cold season to 34 and 40 inches, respectively. Abingdon also got an inch in November. The contest as it’s currently constructed does not consider November or April snow for the simple reason of not wanting to start too early or drag too late, but perhaps it’s worth a second look at maybe starting the period Nov. 15.
In about a month we’ll be launching the summer heat prediction contest, probably with a similar format to this one.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter: