Democrat Abigail Spanberger has opened a double-digit lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the 2025 governor’s race, according to a Roanoke College poll, amid indications that Virginians are reacting negatively to the opening month of the Donald Trump administration.
The poll, released Tuesday, said that if the election were held today, 39% of those surveyed would vote for Spanberger, the former 7th District representative, 24% for Earle-Sears, the sitting lieutenant governor. That lead of 15 percentage points is the largest of any poll about the upcoming governor’s race, but follows a poll last month by Virginia Commonwealth University that gave Spanberger a lead of 10 percentage points and another by Christopher Newport University that showed her leading by 5 percentage points.
Polling last year generally showed Spanberger with a slight lead that was statistically insignificant because it was within the margin of error. The margin of error on the Roanoke College poll is plus or minus 4.66%. Taken together, these polls suggest that Spanberger is pulling away, although the question remains as to whether this is temporary or more permanent; they also come amid a backdrop of Trump taking office, which might be changing the political landscape for Virginia’s November elections and making things more difficult for Republicans in a state that Trump lost three times. For what it’s worth, the 538 website dedicated to political statistics ranks Roanoke College as the 32nd best pollster in the country out of 282 analyzed, with a score of 2.6 stars out of a possible 3.0.
Harry Wilson, professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College and interim director for the Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, which conducted the survey, cautioned that it’s still early in the race. “Still hungover with joy or grief from the elections of 2024, Virginians haven’t yet focused on November 2025,” Wilson said in a statement. “Even with one-third undecided, a candidate would prefer to be in Abigail Spanberger’s position with a 15-point lead over Winsome Earle-Sears. But there is an eternity of political time and much work to do before this election takes center stage.”
At this point in the 2021 governor’s race, it wasn’t even clear who the Republican nominee — eventually Glenn Youngkin — was going to be. The low poll numbers for Earle-Sears may suggest that she simply hasn’t consolidated the Republican vote yet. Former Del. David LaRock recently let it be known he’s collecting signatures to get on the ballot to mount a primary challenge against Earle-Sears. That suggests possible division among some Republicans, but also would give Earle-Sears an opportunity to raise her profile while Spanberger faces no opposition for the Democratic nomination.
Other data in the poll provides warning signs for both candidates. Here’s a rundown:
Trump’s disapproval rate is at a record high in Virginia
The Roanoke College poll found that 59% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency so far. That’s higher than at any time during his first term. At this point in his first term, his disapproval rate in Virginia was 50%. It later peaked at 58% in August 2020. This high disapproval rate could be an anchor for Earle-Sears and other Republican candidates in swing districts this fall.
Virginians are becoming more polarized politically
A curiosity: While Trump’s disapproval rate is at a record high in the state, his approval rate is also higher now than it was at this point in his first term. In February 2017 it was 32%; now it’s 37%. That’s the second-highest it’s been in the time that Roanoke College has been polling about Trump. The bottom line: While more people disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency, more approve of his handling of the job, as well. That could serve to energize some Republican voters for Earle-Sears. We see this polarization reflected in the answers to another poll question:
Most Virginians think the country is on the wrong track, but not as many as before
One month into Trump’s first term, 52% thought the country was on the wrong track, 32% thought it was on the right track. Over the course of four years, Virginians increasingly felt that Trump was leading the country in the wrong direction. By August 2020, 79% thought the country was on the wrong track, only 16% thought it was on the right track.
When Joe Biden took office, most Virginians were still unhappy but not nearly as unhappy as before. In February 2021, the Roanoke College poll found that 53% thought the country was on the wrong track, 39% on the right track — with the “wrong track” number being little different from Trump’s initial numbers.
Then Virginians soured on Biden as well. About a year later, in May 2022, 77% thought the country was on the wrong track — not that different from how they felt until Trump took office again. Those “wrong track” numbers came down some over Biden’s time in office, but not that much. They usually were in the low 70% range and were at 73% in November.
Now, after a month of Trump 2.0, the “wrong track” numbers have dropped to 67%. That’s lower than they’ve been since Biden’s first year in office, although still higher than they were during most of Trump’s first term. The “right track” numbers have jumped from 24% in November to 31% now. That’s higher than they’ve been since Biden’s first year in office and are comparable to many of the numbers during Trump’s first term.
Two-thirds of Virginians think the country is still on the wrong track — that’s bad news for Republicans. But the fact that those numbers have come down may be bad news for Democrats. I suspect what we’re seeing is that the people who like Trump really like what he’s doing.
A narrow majority think Virginia is on the right track
Here’s where things start to look a lot more encouraging for Republicans. People almost never think the country is on the right track, but they traditionally feel a lot better about things in Virginia. This poll found that 51% think Virginia is on the right track, 47% on the wrong track.
This suggests it might be in Democrats’ interest to nationalize this year’s state elections while it’s definitely in Republicans’ interest to try to focus them on Richmond, not Washington. The challenge for Republicans is that part of their base is clearly excited by Trump, but voters overall sure aren’t, so they have a balancing act ahead.
One cautionary note: In November, the Roanoke College poll found that 52% of Virginians thought the state was on the right track, 43% on the wrong track, so the right track is basically unchanged while the wrong track is up some. In fact, that wrong track figure is the highest we’ve seen in three years. Whether that’s significant or a statistical blip, we don’t know yet.
Virginians like Youngkin and nothing seems to change that
Youngkin is Virginia’s Teflon governor when it comes to polling. His polling numbers hardly ever change: 53% approve of the job he’s doing, 39% disapprove.
This is why Earle-Sears talks about the “Youngkin/Earle-Sears administration.” The more she can associate herself with him, the better. Trump roils the waters, Youngkin calms them. Be like Glenn.
Virginians like many of the government agencies that Trump is trying to make over
Here’s where we move from personalities to politics and the results are very mixed. The poll asked about three prominent government agencies and Virginians liked them all: 62% have a favorable impression of the Centers for Disease Control, 59% like the FBI and 55% like the CIA (potentially more good news for Spanberger, a former CIA agent). However …
Virginians like seeing people deported but with a possible contradiction
If the previous questions produced answers Democrats will like, this one produced an answer they won’t: 59% of those surveyed favor deporting people who are in the country illegally. On the other hand, 72% think immigrants who are here without proper documentation should be allowed to stay if certain conditions are met. Those two views may or may not be contradictory. It’s possible that people think these immigrants should be able to stay if certain conditions — whatever they might be — are met and deported if they’re not. The poll didn’t ask that, though, so we’re left to guess. The nuances of policy are often hard to squeeze out of polling questions.
Virginians aren’t anti-immigration, though
They just want to see immigrants with proper documentation: 81% are in favor of creating more opportunities for people to immigrate legally and 72% are in favor of making it easier for asylum seekers to work legally while waiting for a decision about their application.
They’re not keen about a border wall, either
This question produced more divided answers, but 52% still don’t like the idea of a border wall with Mexico; 46% do.
Birthright citizenship gets a thumbs-up
The 14th Amendment guarantees that children born in the U.S. are automatically citizens. Trump wants to change how that part of the constitution is interpreted. So far, courts have rejected his interpretation, but this will ultimately wind up with the U.S. Supreme Court. In this survey, 72% believe that anyone born in the country should automatically be a citizen. For more on the history of this question, and the Virginia lawyer who tried to get it changed once before, see my previous column.
I’ll have more on this poll in Friday’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. You can sign up for it and any of our other free newsletters here: