The General Assembly gavels in for business Monday, with three new members but the same political dynamics as before, just maybe moreso — with a Republican governor and a legislature narrowly controlled by Democrats.
Here’s what to look for in the 2025 session:
1. Election year politics will shape much of the session
Yes, I know you’re shocked, too. This is an election year in Virginia and much of what the General Assembly does (or doesn’t do) will be viewed through that prism. In November, we’ll elect a new governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and all 100 members of the House of Delegates. (The state Senate isn’t up for re-election until 2027.)
Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposed budget amendments (more on them to come) contain multiple proposals which may be wise policy choices from a Republican point of view but which Democrats will consider dead on arrival. Among them: a tax credit for car tax payments, money for parents who choose to send their children to private schools and legislation to tie some state funding to whether a locality is willing to cooperate with federal immigration authorities.
Youngkin may want all these things, but realistically he can’t expect to get them through a Democratic-controlled General Assembly. Politically, Republicans might feel they’re better off if Democrats vote down all these measures because then Republicans can use those issues in the fall to fire up their base and potentially win over some independents. This is all about “shaping the battlefield,” as they say in the military.
History suggests that this will be a Democratic year. Since the 1970s, Virginia has always voted for the party out of power in the White House, with just one exception. Maybe that’s a fluke, but this isn’t: In 2017, the year after Donald Trump took office the first time, there was such a strong voter backlash in Virginia that Democrats made their biggest gains in the legislature since 1899 — and won all three statewide offices. Maybe voters now are numb to Trump, but Republicans have to be concerned about a repeat performance. They remember how effective the “no car tax” slogan was for Republican Jim Gilmore in 1997; they’d much rather run on that this year than run on defending whatever Trump does or says on any given day.
Accordingly, be on the lookout for what’s known as “brochure bills” — bills that each party knows won’t pass but look good on a campaign brochure.
2. How to spend a $2 billion (or more) surplus
This isn’t a budget year; Virginia operates on a two-year spending plan, and that was passed last year. However, it might feel like a budget year because the state is sitting on a surplus that’s projected to hit $2.2 billion by June 30 and could grow to $3.2 billion by mid-2026. Again, I know you’ll be surprised to learn that Democrats and Republicans see that surplus in different ways. Democrats see this as an opportunity to invest in some long-delayed priorities: In other words, they want to spend most of it. Republicans see the surplus as a sign that Virginians are overtaxed and want to return as much of it as possible to taxpayers.
Democrats aren’t immune to the political appeal of a tax refund, either, particularly in the aforementioned election year, but they have different ideas on the size of that refund and who should qualify. Youngkin surprised many when he made his budget proposals. He passed up a chance for a general tax refund and instead opted to propose that about half the surplus go toward funding a three-year refundable tax credit for car tax payments.
Youngkin has also proposed that Virginia stop taxing tips, which he estimates would reduce state revenues by $70 million. This proposal (which mirrors one Trump has made nationally) also has a political dimension: outreach to a lower-income demographic that once may have voted Democratic or not voted at all.
In theory, both parties are in agreement that some of the surplus should go toward tax relief, but whether they can agree on what that should look like is an open question. In a normal year, there might be some political pressure to come to some kind of compromise, but an election year is never a normal year. Will there be political pressure to not come to an agreement, so that both sides can have a campaign issue? Look how those awful (insert “Democrats” or “Republicans” depending on your political preference) kept you from getting a tax refund!
3. The three-way conflict between data centers that need energy, a state law that requires more renewables and rural localities that don’t like solar farms will provoke rural-urban tensions
Several issues are colliding. In Northern Virginia, the proliferation of data centers has stirred controversy from neighbors who don’t like them and don’t want any more. In rural Virginia, but especially Southside, there is growing opposition to solar projects from people who see them as nothing more than a blight that turns a rural landscape into an industrial one. Meanwhile, a new state report says that if the growth of data centers continues unabated, the demand for energy is going to triple by 2040 and it will be “very difficult” for the state to meet that demand. It also seems increasingly unlikely that the state can meet that demand and still meet the requirements of the Clean Economy Act that the state’s two biggest utilities (Dominion Energy and Appalachian Power) go carbon-free by 2050. (Disclosure: Dominion is one of our donors but donors have no say in news decisions; see our policy. As I like to say, you can be a donor and have no say, as well. Here’s how.)
Some Northern Virginia legislators are expected to push for restrictions on data centers; some rural legislators might like that if it means data centers might start locating in other parts of the state that would be more welcoming of their potential tax revenue, and where the relatively small number of jobs would represent a big influx of new income. However, that still doesn’t get around the energy demand. The reality: Nobody wants an energy generation site near them, but we all want the lights to come on — and nobody is going to unplug from our new digital world. So where’s the power going to come from?
This is an issue that’s too big to fit onto a bumper sticker, but it’s one that the state’s politicians are going to have to deal with anyway. There’s proposed legislation that would, in some fashion, allow the state to override local rejections of solar projects. As you can imagine, that’s not likely to be popular with rural legislators. As I pointed out in a previous column, the politics here are uncomfortable for many: The Clean Economy Act was backed almost entirely by urban crescent legislators who don’t have to contend with the controversy over solar farms in their districts. Some Republicans would like to repeal the act, but an “all of the above” energy strategy doesn’t work if people still don’t want energy projects in their neighborhood, no matter what kind they are, and the reality is a lot of those neighborhoods are going to be Republican ones. So how’s this going to work? This legislative session isn’t going to solve that problem, but we may see some initial skirmishing.
4. Cannabis will be back, although the prospects seem unchanged
To review: In 2021, Democrats wanted to legalize cannabis in Virginia (what we used to call marijuana). They knew it would take some time to work out the rules for how a legal market would work, but they didn’t want people being arrested in the meantime for something that could soon be legally purchased. So the Democratic-controlled General Assembly passed, and a Democratic governor signed, legislation to legalize personal possession of small amounts of cannabis. They intended to come back the next year to pass the rules for a retail market and figured a year of having a legal gray area — where you could have something but couldn’t buy it — wouldn’t matter.
Unfortunately for them, and cannabis consumers, voters in 2021 turned out the Democrats and elected a Republican governor and a Republican House of Delegates. Even when Democrats regained the House in 2023, there was still a Republican governor standing in the way. That legal gray area expected to last for one year has now stretched to almost four and likely will go longer.
The General Assembly last year passed a retail bill, almost entirely along party lines, but Youngkin vetoed it and shows no sign of changing his mind. Meanwhile, the marketplace has responded with cannabis stores openly operating anyway, particularly in Southwest Virginia, where you can now walk into a store on the Main Street of many small towns and walk out with a bag of weed. Del. Paul Krizek, D-Fairfax County, and state Sen. Aaron Rouse, D-Virginia Beach, sponsored legislation last year and will be back this year. Youngkin’s mind hasn’t changed, but have the minds of any Republican legislators, particularly after seeing how open cannabis sales already are? We’ll see. I would not count on any cannabis bill becoming law this year, which will thrust the issue into this fall’s gubernatorial race.
I’ve had numerous Republican legislators tell me privately they’d be willing to vote for legalization but a) don’t like the way the Krizek-Rouse bills are written and b) see no reason to take a potentially controversial vote in favor when they know Youngkin is just going to veto the measure. Just how controversial would a “yes” vote be? I’ve written before that, based on referendums in other states, many Republican voters appear amenable. I also offer this curious data point: During the recent special elections, our Voter Guide questionnaire included a question on cannabis. Of the 10 questions, the answer to that one was the second most-searched answer on our site, behind only the candidates’ biographical information.
5. ‘Skill’ games may or may not be back
Put these electronic games — which proponents call skill games and opponents call neighborhood slot machines — in the same category as cannabis. They’re illegal, but they’re often out there anyway. The legislature last year passed a bill to legalize them, but a long list of amendments proposed by the governor wound up sinking the measure. Has anything changed? We’ll see.
6. Three proposed constitutional amendments are on the agenda
Here’s something the governor can’t veto because that’s not how the process works. Democrats want to pass three amendments to the state constitution: to enshrine same-sex marriage, abortion rights and restoration of civil rights to felons after they’ve served their time. Under Virginia’s rules, these amendments will need to pass the General Assembly twice before they go to voters, with an election in between. That means Democrats want to pass them this year, then come back next year, with a new House of Delegates, and pass them again so they can go to a referendum. Given the (slim) Democratic majorities in Richmond, there’s likely nothing Republicans can do to stop these measures this year — but they could if they win control of the House of Delegates in November, so look for these to become talking points in the fall. Republicans have signaled they will train their fire on the abortion rights amendment because they believe it is too open-ended.
Last year’s session saw 3,128 bills and resolutions get filed. This year, being a short session, we won’t have that many, but we’ll obviously have more than the ones I just listed here. Cardinal has a full-time reporter in Richmond, so look for Elizabeth Beyer’s coverage of the session over the next two months. If you’re not signed up for our daily newsletter (or my weekly West of the Capital political newsletter), here’s a good opportunity to fix that: