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Winter is threatening to coat Virginia with a fresh layer of white, as widespread snowfall is expected to develop over the state late Friday, continuing into early Saturday morning.
A low-pressure system tracking through the southern U.S. will spread moisture into deep cold air parked over Virginia, leading to the likelihood of widespread snowfall starting in the southwest corner Friday afternoon and spreading over the entire state through the evening and overnight.
Unlike most snow events in Virginia, the southern fringe of the state is favored for the most snow. Winter storm warnings have been issued for Virginia localities in the southwest corner, eastward along the border with North Carolina, and then as far northward as Lynchburg and Richmond moving east across the state. The warning is in effect for localities most likely to have at least some places reach 4 inches. Farther north, winter weather advisories are in effect where there is less likelihood of reaching the 4-inch warning threshold.
Please see websites for National Weather Service offices in Blacksburg, Wakefield, and Morristown, Tenn., for more information on specific warnings and advisories.
Widespread snowfall of 2-5 inches appears likely over most of Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area stretching from the southwest tip of the state east to Buggs Island Lake/Kerr Reservoir and the north to Interstate 64. A few spots near the North Carolina line could see up to 6 inches, and it is possible that a few lower elevation areas especially in the more northern parts of our region could come in under 2 inches. Light amounts generally under 2 inches are expected in most of the northern half of Virginia, where the most fell in the last winter storm.
Freezing rain is not expected in Virginia with this round, after ice accumulations knocked out electricity for over 100,000 utility customers in the state and caused a water crisis in Richmond. Sleet is also not widely expected, though it can’t entirely be ruled out that some could mix in near the state’s southern border for a short time, if warmer air aloft over North Carolina nudges a little farther north than currently forecast.
At this late hour, there continues to be some push and pull in possible snowfall amounts due to competing atmospheric factors and slightly varying forecast model solutions, amounting to tenths of an inch of moisture.
There is very dry air in many layers of the atmosphere that must be saturated for snow to reach the surface. There are also questions about how far north and east the stronger lift and thicker moisture of the storm system will be able to penetrate. A move up to a regionwide 3-6-inch snowfall, likely necessitating an expansion of the winter storm warning area, or a slight dip to a more widespread 1-3-inch snow is still possible pending later data and observation as the system begins to manifest in our region late Friday.
Hard-to-predict localized banding of heavier snow and “dry slots” could raise or lessen snowfall somewhat at any given location in the region.
Snow will likely begin as some showery flurries as the atmosphere slowly saturates and some initial bands run out ahead of the main precipitation area. Radar may show echoes for an hour or more at any given location before flakes reach the surface. Higher elevations will see snow first and may see slightly higher snow totals that surrounding lower elevation areas as a result.
More steadily accumulating snow will begin spreading into the southwest corner of the state in the midday to mid-afternoon, cross into the New River Valley by late afternoon, reach the Blue Ridge by sunset or shortly thereafter, and then spread eastward during the evening hours. Most of the snowfall will be light to moderate, though there could be some narrow heavy bands.
The snow will move quickly across the state and likely exit near or shortly after sunrise Saturday. Other than some lingering flurries and mountain snow showers, snow is likely over for Cardinal News coverage area well before the sun rises Saturday.
In many parts of our region, snow will be accumulating atop previously accumulated snow, sleet and glaze ice from the Sunday-Monday winter storm. Even where that accumulation has managed to gradually melt or sublimate away in this week’s sunshine, the persistent cold temperatures that have stayed mostly below freezing and dropped to teens and single digits at night have kept surfaces cold, so snow will readily stick on just about any surface including streets.
After this snow passes, a few days of temperatures rising above freezing in the afternoon, even some 40s, with some thawing sunshine are expected over most of our region before a new Arctic cold front deepens the chill by the middle of next week.
No additional precipitation systems are apparent for next week, as seen at this time, other than some typical mountain snow showers behind cold fronts. There is some indication of a low-pressure system affecting parts of the central and eastern U.S. by around Jan. 18, but this is too far out to make even the vaguest projections of precipitation types, amounts or locations.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter: