A complicated mosaic of intertangling wintry precipitation types is projected to overtake most of Virginia late Sunday and Monday with the likelihood of dicey travel and scattered power outages.
Precipitation is expected to begin spreading into the southwest corner of Virginia near midday Sunday, beginning mostly as snow. Snow will then spread east and north to cover most of Virginia by late afternoon or early evening, but warmer air aloft moving in from the south and southwest will begin changing snow to sleet, freezing rain, and in some spots just cold plain rain. While Northern Virginia may stay mostly or all snow, most other parts of the state are expected to see an icy mix of precipitation types that defy any reasonable possibility of entirely accurate prediction for any given location.
As of Saturday morning, most of Virginia is under a winter storm watch for much of Sunday and Monday, times varying by location. The only exception Saturday morning were three counties of Southside — Pittsylvania, Halifax and Charlotte — placed under a winter weather advisory, with wintry mix expected to be fairly brief and change to rain in those areas, and areas further to the east in Southside and on to Hampton Roads not under any winter advisory as of yet, where any wintry mix is expected to give way to rain fairly quickly.
Some parts of the state are already experiencing whitened ground and icy roads on this Saturday morning.
Friday brought a series of snow squalls across primarily the western half of Virginia, with some locations getting up to near an inch of accumulation and near-whiteout conditions for a short time in heavy snow and gusty winds. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg issued its first-ever snow squall warning for several localities along the Interstate 81 corridor from just southwest of Roanoke to northeast of Wytheville, including Blacksburg, Christiansburg, and Pulaski, as a band of extremely heavy snow quickly whitened several areas.
Any places that collected snow, and likely to add snow, sleet and ice accumulation on Sunday night, may keep it around for many days as consistently cold temperatures are expected to continue the remainder of this week and likely into the following one as well. Some very cold mornings with single-digit and lower teens lows are projected by the latter half of the coming week. There may be another wintry precipitation threat by next weekend, perhaps a more broadly snowy episode, but let’s focus on this one at hand.
While widespread wintry impact is expected across most of Virginia Sunday into Monday, relatively minute shifts in atmospheric details could result in somewhat different outcomes for any given location.
As a low-pressure system moves eastward toward Virginia, initial precipitation spread eastward by the low is likely to be snow on Sunday afternoon and early evening, as temperatures preceding the storm will be deeply cold through the atmosphere. Milder air swept in aloft from the southwest will mix in more sleet and freezing rain, and change much of the snow entirely to freezing rain and rain over the southwest corner and southern fringe of the state by early Sunday evening.
Farther north and east, things get messier and more complicated.
Northern Virginia, generally north of an east-west line across the state running through Charlottesville, has the best chance of seeing 4 or more inches of snow, though some sleet or freezing rain may mix in even pretty far north of this line. It is possible a zone of 8-10 inches of snow may develop in Northern Virginia in a heavier band where it can remain snow longest.
Farther south, to near the U.S. 460 corridor from Blacksburg to Roanoke and Lynchburg on to Richmond, early snow is expected to become mostly sleet and freezing rain overnight. An inch or two of snow and sleet, locally up to 4 inches, may accumulate in these areas before a tenth to a quarter-inch of glaze ice possibly locally up to half-inch. Any amounts of a quarter-inch or more of ice begin to break tree limbs and endanger power lines.
Slight changes in temperature a mile up or so in the atmosphere could lead to more snow, if it stays colder longer, or less snow and more ice and even patches of plain rain, if a bit warmer. Various computer forecast models show each of these outcomes as possibilities, further complicated by the state’s complex topography and other localized influences that may render different results within a few miles of one another. Just because it’s not all that icy at your house on Monday morning may not mean it’s the same way even just a few miles away.
South of the 460 corridor to the North Carolina line, less than 1 inch of snow is expected before turning to sleet, freezing rain, and cold plain rain. There may be somewhat more snow and sleet for the portion of this area along and west of the Blue Ridge before turning to ice, which appears to have the potential to be the thickest near the Blue Ridge and west across the New River Valley toward the I-77 corridor. Power outages could become particularly troublesome in these areas.
Precipitation may change back to snow from the west on Monday afternoon and evening as the low-pressure departs offshore and colder air is again pulled in from the north behind, but additional amounts are expected to be light.
This post on Cardinal News will be updated intermittently through the weekend as the weather situation unfolds. Please monitor National Weather Service websites in Blacksburg (most of Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area); Sterling (most of northern half of Virginia); Wakefield (Richmond/Hampton Roads and eastern Virginia, including part of Southside); Morristown, Tennessee (part of Southwest Virginia); and Charleston, West Virginia (some of Southwest Virginia) for the latest information on weather in and near the commonwealth of Virginia.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:
