25 questions for 2025

Every year begins with questions. Here are 25 of them for 2025. 

1. Who will be elected governor? 

Virginia had been poised to elect its first woman as chief executive until Rep. Bobby Scott, D-Newport News, started making noise about running for the Democratic nomination against soon-to-be-former 7th District Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Henrico County. On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is uncontested.

Virginia is in the minority: Thirty-two states have already had women as governors, according to the Pew Research Center, and 10 have had governor’s races where both major party candidates were women, according to the Center for American Women and Politics. As a result of the recent election, 13 states will have women as governors at the same time, a record, according to the Associated Press. If Earle-Sears wins, she would be the first Black woman to be a governor of any state. I gave my early assessment of the governor’s race in a previous column.

2. Who will be elected lieutenant governor? 

Democrats have a five-way contest underway between Chesterfield County state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, Prince William County school board chair Babur Lateef, Virginia Beach state Sen. Aaron Rouse, former federal prosecutor Victor Saldago of Arlington and outgoing Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney. The Republican side is still in formation. So far, John Curran is the only candidate listed by the Virginia Public Access Project, but I’d certainly expect others.

3. Who will be elected attorney general?

Republican Jason Miyares is seeking reelection. Democrats have two candidates: former Norfolk Del. Jay Jones and Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor. Whatever happens, it appears that Democrats will, for the first time, nominate a ticket with no white men. If Hashmi and Taylor win their primaries, Democrats could nominate a ticket of three women. If either Rouse or Stoney wins the Democratic lieutenant governor primary and if Jones wins the attorney general primary, then half the candidates for statewide office would be Black — another record in Virginia. 

4. Who will win the House of Delegates? 

Democrats currently hold a 51-49 advantage. In the presidential election, Democrat Kamala Harris carried eight House of Delegates districts now held by Republicans, which suggests Democrats will have a chance to expand their majority. On the other hand, the turnout in a gubernatorial year is always lower than in a presidential year, and we’ve seen plenty of examples in the past where what happened in a presidential election wasn’t replicated the following year with a different voter pool. 

5. How will Donald Trump’s deportations impact Virginia? 

Trump has vowed to carry out “the largest deportation operation in American history.” What hasn’t gotten much attention is the economic impact of those promised deportations. Many of the people he wants to deport are part of the workforce. A study eight years ago estimated that 70% of unauthorized immigrants were employed. That’s about 4.8% of the U.S. workforce, according to the Pew Research Center. The Migration Policy Center said that 31% of unauthorized immigrants work in construction trades. Everybody agrees that we have a housing shortage and the solution is to build more houses. How is that going to work if we reduce the construction workforce? 

6. How will Trump’s tariffs impact Virginia? 

If Trump’s threatened tariffs lead to greater access to foreign markets, that’s a boon for Virginia’s export-based economy. If, instead, they result in other countries retaliating by raising or imposing their own tariffs, then that will hurt Virginia’s economy. A study commissioned by the Virginia Chamber of Commerce (hardly a left-leaning organization) found that exports are what have been driving Virginia’s economic growth, so anything that endangers those exports endangers Virginia’s economy at large. Further, the study found that rural Virginia, particularly Southwest Virginia, has the most at risk in any trade war. Metro areas have lots of things powering their economies; some rural areas and small towns may have a single company whose business is tied to exports — such as coal mines in parts of Southwest Virginia or the WestRock paper mill in Covington. For more on that study, see my previous column on the subject.

7. Who will be elected mayor of Lynchburg? 

The Hill City is the largest city in Virginia where the mayor isn’t elected by the people but is chosen from among council members. Lynchburg is also a place that has seen its Republican majority on council riven by factionalism, so much so that state Republican chair Rich Anderson has had to intervene to try to mediate at least a ceasefire. Two years ago, Republican Stephanie Reed was elected mayor on a 4-3 vote. One of those four votes is now gone, due to retirement, and it’s unclear whether she can pick up a fourth vote. If so, it will likely come from council member Larry Taylor, who some have been pushing for mayor, as well. This isn’t just about who gets to wield the gavel, but about which faction gains the upper hand. For more on the complicated politics behind this, see my previous column on the Lynchburg mayoral situation.

8. What other turmoil might we see on the Lynchburg City Council?

Over the past two years, we’ve seen one council member censured twice and another one (since retired) censured once. The factional maneuvering over the mayor’s seat suggests the political heat in Lynchburg won’t get turned down anytime soon. Meanwhile, the 5-2 Republican majority has now expanded to 6-1, so the dynamics going forward will be somewhat different. 

9. Who will take Joe Cobb’s seat on the Roanoke City Council?

Cobb, the city’s vice mayor, was elected mayor in November. That opens up his council seat. The fall elections already sent three newcomers to council. Depending on who takes Cobb’s seat, Roanoke could see first-timers in four of its seven council seats.

10. What will the General Assembly do?

This will be the final regular session for members of the House of Delegates before they’re up for reelection. That suggests we’ll likely see a lot of “brochure bills” — bills that the sponsors don’t expect to become law, but which they think will look good on a campaign brochure, either along the lines of “Look what those awful Democrats killed” (for Republicans) or “Look what that awful Republican governor vetoed” (for Democrats). Virginia also has a $2 billion surplus, and both parties will be looking for ways to spend that (or return some of it to taxpayers). The legislative session also prompts some more specific questions:

11. What moves, if any, will we see to give the state more power over the location of solar projects?

The Virginia Clean Economy Act, passed in 2020, mandates a carbon-free electric grid by 2050. That’s prompted a land rush to develop solar energy, which almost by definition has to be in rural Virginia. In response, many rural counties have become increasingly hostile to solar projects. Many rural residents are anti-solar because they see solar farms turning their rural landscape into an industrial one. The University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center has compiled a Virginia Solar Database that shows, among other things, how solar approvals are dropping and solar rejections are rising. That’s raised questions about whether Virginia is going to be able to meet its renewable energy targets and prompted some legislators to float proposals that maybe the state should be able to override local rejections. I can’t imagine Youngkin would sign such a measure — given how rural areas are strongly Republican ones — but we could see movement on this in anticipation of a Democratic governor being elected. This is becoming a very touchy issue in rural Virginia, particularly in Southside. 

12. What moves, if any, will we see to restrict the growth of data centers?

Complicating the state’s energy transition is the growth of data centers, which are energy hogs. A recent state report found that if data centers continue to grow unchecked, Virginia’s energy demands will nearly triple by 2040. The report said it would be “very difficult” for the state’s utilities to supply that much energy. Even if the renewable energy goals of the Clean Economy Act weren’t a factor, it would still be “difficult” to meet all those energy demands, the report said. Rural counties are pushing back on solar farms. Nobody wants an energy-generating facility near them. But nobody is willing to unplug from our digital world. So now what?

13. Will construction start on Virginia’s first on-shore wind farm? 

This has become a perennial question. The Rocky Forge wind farm that was first proposed for a mountaintop north of Eagle Rock in Botetourt County in 2015 has yet to be built. In December, the Charlottesville developers announced they’d struck a deal with Google to buy the power and hope to start operating in 2026. If and when it does, it will be the state’s first.

14. What will happen with the proposals for small nuclear reactors?

A new species of nuclear reactors, called small modular reactors, or SMRs, is all the rage in some circles. The case for them: They can be built quickly, which can reduce the cost of nuclear reactors, which is traditionally horrendous. Also: They’re not really new, because we’ve had small reactors in nuclear submarines for a long time. They’re just new in a commercial context. None, however, have actually been built in the United States, so nobody is really sure whether those promises will prove true. And, of course, there are some people who object to nuclear energy, period. The state’s two largest utilities, Dominion Energy and Appalachian Power, have both announced plans to build SMRs. For Dominion, that’s at the North Anna nuclear power station in Louisa County. For Appalachian, that’s the Joshua Falls substation in Campbell County, near where BWX Technologies already has nuclear materials. What will happen to those proposals in the new year? (Disclosure: Dominion is one of our donors, but donors have no say in news decisions; see our policy.)

15. Will the Atlantic Coast Conference remain intact? 

The lawsuits that Florida State and Clemson University have filed against the league are still out there in the court system. If either were to prevail, that would set in motion a new round of realignment in the college sports world. This matters to us because the University of Virginia and Virginia Tech are both ACC members.

16. Will “skill games” get legalized?

These are the electronic games that you often see in convenience stores, or did, until they were banned. Proponents claim that these are harmless games that really do require some skill and that banning them hurts mom-and-pop stores. Opponents see these as nothing more than “neighborhood slot machines.” There seemed a lot of momentum last year in Richmond to legalize the games; has that slowed? 

17.  Will we continue to see the spread of open (and illicit) cannabis sales?

Virginia is the only state where personal possession of cannabis is legal but retail sales of the same product are not. The General Assembly passed a bill to legalize weed sales, but Youngkin vetoed it. Nonetheless, stores are popping up that are openly selling cannabis, and law enforcement seems to show little interest in shutting them down. How much further will these stores spread in 2025?

18. What progress will be made on Amtrak to the New River Valley (and Bristol)?

The expansion of passenger rail to the New River Valley hit a snag in 2024 when it was learned that the route would have to go through a tunnel that wasn’t suitable for passenger trains — and modernizing it was so prohibitively expensive that Amtrak might never go beyond Christiansburg. The state worked a deal with Norfolk Southern for a different route between Roanoke and New River that holds open the prospect of going further someday.

19. How quickly can the Creeper Trail be restored?

Hurricane Helene took out 18 trestles and washed out parts of the popular trail. This isn’t just a recreational trail, it’s an economic development engine for some communities in Southwest Virginia. The disaster relief package that Congress passed in December included $600 million for the Creeper Trail. How much of that can get restored in 2025?

20. Will Carilion Clinic get approval for a kidney transplant program in Roanoke?

The nonprofit hospital chain would like one, but the University of Virginia has opposed the proposed program, saying its services in Charlottesville are sufficient for Southwest Virginia. A state regulator is set to decide. (Disclosure: Carilion is one of our donors but donors have no say in news decisions; see our policy. As I always like to say, you can be a donor and have no say, as well.)

21. What will happen with the New College Institute?

The governor’s proposed budget amendments once again aim to defund the higher education center in Martinsville — and instead wants a sustainability plan that outlines options for continuing operations, merging with another public entity or closing the higher education center altogether. Meanwhile, NCI and its former nonprofit foundation remain at odds over who is entitled to the money that the foundation acquired from the state’s purchase of the institute’s property. Will any of this get resolved in 2025?

22. Will Patrick County’s hospital reopen?

A Tennessee health care company has acquired the vacant facility and announced plans to reopen it as a full-service hospital with an emergency department. A previous attempt by a different company failed. What progress will we see on this proposal in 2025?

23. What impact will Sweet Briar College’s admission policy have?

In 2024, the women’s college in Amherst County revised its admissions policy to specify that by “women” it meant only students who “confirm that her sex assigned at birth is female and that she consistently lives and identifies as a woman.” That rules out trans students but also women who may have some other gender identity. That’s stirred an uproar among some alumnae, but it’s unclear whether that will have any impact on admissions or donations — or prompt a legal challenge.

24. Will we see more armadillos in Virginia? 

The armor-plated critters are waddling north. Some have been sighted in Virginia, as far north as Roanoke, but so far no breeding population has been found. As with many other things, will this be the year?

25. What will happen that we don’t know to ask about?

Something will, right? It always does.