It’s almost the end of the year, so a good time to look back on all the things that have happened. Conveniently, I began the year by posing 24 questions about what might happen in 2024. Now, at last, we can answer them, so here goes.
1. Who will be elected president?
That one’s easy to answer: Donald Trump pulled a Grover Cleveland and will serve two nonconsecutive terms. In the final numbers, Trump failed to poll a majority, however. The Associated Press count shows him at 49.9% of the popular vote to 48.4% for Kamala Harris. Trump ran about 3 million votes better than he did four years ago, while Harris ran about 6.5 million votes below Joe Biden’s totals from 2020. One of the main keys to the election, which I addressed in one of my post-election columns: Many Democrats simply didn’t vote.
2. Will Donald Trump get convicted of something?
Yes, he was convicted on 34 counts in New York of falsifying business records, but that still didn’t matter to his voters. Trump’s federal charges will go away, at least for the duration of his presidency. In theory, some of them could come back, unless he pardons himself preemptively.
3. Who will get the 5th District Republican nomination?
John McGuire’s challenge to Rep. Bob Good was one of the biggest political stories of the year in Virginia. Good, who chaired the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, had been a faithful supporter of Trump except for one thing: He endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president. That was enough to give McGuire an opening. Eventually, even Trump himself weighed in, endorsing McGuire. Money poured into the Southside district; McGuire was in the unusual position of being pushed both by Trump as well as former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, whom Good had ousted. In the end, McGuire won the nomination and easily won the fall election.
4. Who will be elected to Congress in the fall?
Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., won a third term. He took 54.37% of the vote over Republican Hung Cao; it was his second-best showing of his five statewide races. Virginia will have three new U.S. House members when Congress convenes but no change in the party lineup of six Democrats and five Republicans. Besides McGuire, Democrats retained open seats: Eugene Vindman will succeed Abigail Spanberger in the 7th; she left to run for governor. Suhas Subramanyam follows Jennifer Wexton in the 10th; she retired for health reasons. He becomes the state’s first Indian-American congressman. Republican Jen Kiggans faced a close race in the 2nd District but prevailed in her reelection bid. Other contests were never expected to be close and weren’t.
5. What will Gov. Glenn Youngkin do?
That’s a broad question. He didn’t run for president. He tried to swing a deal to bring the NBA’s Washington Wizards and NHL’s Washington Capitals to Alexandria, but that fell through when Senate Finance Chair Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth, refused to bring it to a vote. The Roanoke College poll shows that Youngkin consistently remains popular with Virginians. In November, Youngkin scored what could be a legacy-defining economic development win: The Microporous battery plant agreed to locate in Pittsylvania County, promising more than 2,000 jobs. Youngkin has also been excited about something else: New census data showed that Virginia has reversed a decade-long trend and now has more people moving in than moving out. He attributes that to his policies, although demographers say it may be more complicated than that.
6. What will the General Assembly do?
Another broad question. The year saw Democrats regain control of the House of Delegates and keep their control of the state Senate. The former saw Don Scott installed as the state’s first Black speaker of the House; the latter saw a major reshuffling of leadership positions due to retirements and election defeats. The most significant: Lucas took over Senate Finance and, as noted above, quashed Youngkin’s goal to bring NBA and NHL teams to Virginia. The legislature also passed a bill to legalize retail sales of cannabis, but the governor vetoed it.
7. What will be in the state’s budget?
After a standoff between the Republican governor and the Democratic legislature, the two sides eventually agreed on a two-year state budget with no tax increases and no additional tax relief, those being two points of sharp contention. It did include $2.5 billion in additional funding for K-12 education and a 3% raise for teachers and state employees. Of local note: $70 million for widening Interstate 81 and $2.5 million for an inland port in Washington County.
8. How many constitutional amendments will the legislature set in motion?
For strategic reasons, Democrats didn’t bring up any during the regular session in 2024, but near year’s end, they used a committee hearing to advance three of them to the floor for 2025, which, conveniently for them, is an election year. The three in question: enshrining the right to an abortion, repealing the state’s now-moot ban on same-sex marriage and instead protecting it, and setting up a process to automatically restore civil rights to felons who have served their time. Constitutional amendments in Virginia involve a multiyear process, so whether these had passed this year or will pass in 2025, the earliest they’d go to a referendum would be 2026.
9. Will Virginia legalize a retail market for cannabis?
Not this year. Virginia is the only state in the country where it’s legal to possess small amounts of cannabis but illegal to sell it. Virginia Democrats had intended a two-year process whereby they legalized possession in 2021 and then would come back in 2022 to set up the rules on a retail market. Instead, they lost the 2021 elections. By the time they came back into full control of the General Assembly this year, they faced a Republican governor who vetoed a legalization bill. Despite the ban on retail sales, stores have popped up across Southwest Virginia that are openly selling cannabis anyway, and, after some raids in 2023, law enforcement has generally shown little interest in shutting down stores. This is the equivalent of moonshiners opening stores on Main Street. It’s now easy to buy weed over the counter, although you can’t always be sure what you’re getting: We’ve had tests performed that show some of it is moldy and has high levels of metals.
10. Will something big land at the Southern Virginia Megasite?
Yes, indeedy. In November, the Microporous battery company announced it will build a factory at the site in Pittsylvania County and eventually employ 2,015 people. That’s a huge win for Southside, as well as Virginia as a whole, because it helps give the state a claim to the “battery belt” that’s been rising in the Southeast, mostly anchored in Georgia.
11. Will Virginia get its first on-shore wind farm?
Not this year, but soon. The Rocky Forge wind site, first proposed in 2015 for a mountaintop near Eagle Rock in Botetourt County, has been repeatedly delayed, partly for lack of a customer. In December, the Charlottesville developers announced they’d struck a deal to sell the power to Google and hope to begin operation in 2026.
12. Will we see any movement on a small modular nuclear reactor in Virginia?
Yes, quite a bit, actually. Both of the state’s two biggest utilities, Dominion Energy and Appalachian Power, have now proposed to build small modular reactors, a smaller version of existing reactors that some believe will make nuclear power more affordable. Both have also proposed to do this at sites that so far have generated little controversy. For Dominion, that’s its existing North Anna nuclear station in Louisa County. For Appalachian, that’s the Joshua Falls substation in Campbell County, near where BWX Technologies already has nuclear materials. (Disclosure: Dominion is one of our donors but donors have no say in news decisions; see our policy.)
13. Will the Mountain Valley Pipeline get completed?
Yes, and natural gas is now flowing from West Virginia to the pipeline’s terminus in Chatham. The pipeline, first proposed in 2014, took a decade to complete. By the time it finally opened in June, the price tag had more than doubled to $7.85 billion.
14. Will the Atlantic Coast Conference remain intact?
For now, yes. Clemson and Florida State have both sued the league over media rights, a likely precursor to leaving — if those schools can find a better deal elsewhere. The ACC has countersued. All those cases are grinding along. The sports website Rivals.com says they may go on for years. All this matters to us because Virginia Tech and the University of Virginia are both ACC members. If the league flies apart, as the Pac-12 did, there’s some risk that Tech might have to settle for a lesser conference. That has economic implications for the western part of the state because Tech home games generate a lot of spending during football season.
15. How much more turmoil will the Lynchburg City Council endure?
A lot. Vice Mayor Chris Faraldi faced a primary challenge, which he won, and then a legal challenge to the election itself, which was later withdrawn, only to see primary loser Peter Alexander wage a write-in campaign in the fall. The political back-and-forth over that election challenge led to the council voting 4-3 to censure two of its members, Jeff Helgeson and Marty Misjuns, who were in the anti-Faraldi camp. This was the second censure for Misjuns. Meanwhile, some on the Lynchburg Republican City Committee want to expel both Faraldi and Mayor Stephanie Reed from the party. State party chair Rich Anderson is now trying to mediate peace between the warring factions. This may not end any time soon. The first drama in the new year will be over who the new council selects as mayor.
16. Who will get elected to the Lynchburg City Council?
The 5-2 Republican majority will become a 6-1 majority in January. In the November elections, Democrat Sterling Wilder was reelected in Ward II and Republican Chris Faraldi was reelected in Ward IV. Longtime councilman Jeff Helgeson unexpectedly dropped his reelection bid just before the deadline; Curt Diemer was nominated as the Republican candidate and eventually won in Ward III. The party change came in Ward I, where longtime council member and former mayor Maryjane Dolan retired. Republican Jacqueline Timmer won that seat in a three-way race.
17. What progress will there be toward an inland port in Southwest Virginia?
Some. There’s a site selected in Washington County and a study underway. The state budget included $2.5 million for the project, but that won’t cover the whole cost. Like many things, this will be a multiyear effort. For those wondering what an “inland port” is, it’s a big cargo distribution center that a) collects freight to put on trains for the port at Hampton Roads and b) distributes freight brought in from the water port. The goal is to reduce congestion at Hampton Roads and also direct freight to the port that might otherwise wind up at rival ports. Virginia already has one inland port near Front Royal; it’s generated upwards of 8,000 jobs. Legislators in Southwest Virginia would love to see something like that happen there.
18. Who will run for statewide office in 2025?
When I asked this question, I thought there’d be more drama than there actually is. For Republicans, the field has been cleared for Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. We thought the Democratic field had been cleared for outgoing 7th District Representative Abigail Spanberger, although now there’s chatter that Rep. Bobby Scott of Newport News might run as well.
For lieutenant governor, Democrats have an active field: Chesterfield County state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, Prince William County school board chair Babur Lateef, Virginia Beach state Sen. Aaron Rouse, and Richmond Mayor LeVar Stoney. The Republican field has been late forming. For now, the Virginia Public Access Project lists only John Curran, a former Naval officer from Northern Virginia. Expect others.
For attorney general, former Norfolk Del. Jay Jones and Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor are the Democratic candidates. For Republicans, incumbent Jason Miyares is seeking reelection.
19. Who will get elected Roanoke mayor?
Democrat Joe Cobb, who has been the city’s vice mayor, won a three-way race by 29 votes after a recount. He becomes the city’s first openly gay mayor.
20. Who will be elected to the Roanoke City Council?
Roanoke had three open seats so was guaranteed to elect three newcomers. Democrats Terry McGuire and Phazhon Nash took two of those seats; Republican Nick Hagen took the third, becoming the first Republican elected to the city council since 2000.
21. Will Kaine succeed in his quest to make Pell Grants available to students in short-term training programs?
Alas, not yet.
22. What will become of the proposal to grow the region’s advanced manufacturing and materials industries?
It’s moving along. A joint application from the New River Valley and Danville was a runner-up in the federal tech hub competition in 2023. That meant a smaller grant to develop the region’s economy. So far, the group has hired a “regional innovation officer.”
23. Will we see more armadillos in Virginia?
Alas, no. At least none that we’ve heard about. The armor-plated critters are slowly waddling north, and in 2021 and 2022 there was a flurry of sightings in Southwest Virginia and as far north as Roanoke. If you see any, we’d love to know!
24. What will happen that we don’t know to ask about?
Lots, right? The biggest unexpected news of the year was Hurricane Helene and the damage that did.
That’s it for this year. We’ll take a break on New Year’s Day, then on Thursday, I’ll be back with 25 questions for 2025.
ODU report has some advice and warnings for politicians
On Monday, I wrote about what the annual Old Dominion University State of the Commonwealth Report has to say about the state’s economy. I’ll devote a future column to some other aspects of the report, as well as part of this Friday’s West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. You can sign up for West of the Capital, or any of our other free newsletters, below:
