Meteorologists get ahead of the calendar and start winter on Dec. 1. The weather pattern will oblige them this year by acting like winter right out of the gate in meteorological winter.
A strong cold front will bring some Turkey Day rain to Southwest and Southside Virginia, but by Black Friday and the Thanksgiving weekend, a midwinter-like air mass will settle into our region with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows mostly in the 20s. (Hoos and Hokies will need to bundle up Saturday night in Blacksburg!)
Next week, the first week of December, will bring some even sharper reinforcing shots of Arctic air, with the likelihood of widespread teens to lower 20s lows, perhaps some single digits in some outlying areas, and possibly a day or two that doesn’t reach the freezing mark at least over the part of our region west of the Blue Ridge.
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At this writing there is no obvious setup for widespread, significant snow or ice, but that could develop on relatively short notice (a couple days) if a shortwave moves through the southward arching jet stream with the timing and placement to lift and condense moisture in the colder air. The axis of the jet stream trough associated with the cold air intrusion appears likely to set up a little too far east than what is optimal for larger winter storms to develop for our region, but a smaller wintry precipitation episode or two may be possible. Somewhat milder air returning late next week over colder air could also pose some wintry precipitation risk. We’ll monitor.
Starting December cold has not been the trend in recent years. Our region has seen 60s and 70s during the first week of December each of the last three years. It has been late December or even January before any really winterlike cold has made it in for more than day or two in those years.
This is also a departure from what we’ve seen with unusual warmth earlier in November. Fruit trees in our region have been blooming. Roanoke hasn’t even had an official freeze yet, the latest on the calendar during the latter half of a calendar year the Star City has gone without a 32 or below temperature, the previous latest being Nov. 19 in 2002. (Nov. 30 looks like the probable first freeze date for Roanoke as of now. Most other locations in our region, even those in Southside and well east of the Blue Ridge, have made it down to 32 or below at least once this fall.)
But the atmospheric furniture has shifted to allow some blocking high pressure near Greenland and the North Pole and, more importantly for this round of chill, expansive high pressure developing over western North America that will pile-drive Arctic chill originating in Siberia and the Arctic Circle across Canada into the central and eastern U.S.
Whether this holds a clue for what the winter ahead will bring will be interesting to watch in weeks ahead. The expected La Niña in the equatorial Pacific continues to founder, raising at least some questions about the numerous “mild and dry” forecasts for winter ahead that are based on the premise that it would have developed by now.
A reasonable expectation the next few weeks would be for occasional Arctic shots interrupting milder periods in between. There does appear to be a good chance of at least a brief refill of colder air after next week’s relents a few days toward the first full weekend of December.
Upslope snow events focusing on the higher elevations along the Virginia-West Virginia border will almost certainly occur from time to time with new cold frontal passages, but the potential for a more widespread snow or wintry precipitation event will depend on hard-to-time upper-level shortwaves digging deeper southward or other setups in which Gulf of Mexico moisture is lifted over cold air trapped against the mountains.
These precipitation setups have been hard to come by for months even for just plain old rain, leading to long periods of drought (including currently) interspersed with a couple of heavy rain episodes, particularly Hurricane Helene. While there is no sign at all on the horizon for anything resembling a wet pattern meeting the cold air, we’ll keep our eyes out for another exception-to-the-rule storm system that could quickly change the narrative of this winter.
Last week’s mountain snow
Winter made a premature jump off the starting line last week in many areas west of the Blue Ridge, as upslope snow showers enhanced by a strong upper-level low brought measurable snow, even briefly heavy snow, to many locations.
Snow accumulation Thursday through Saturday, Nov. 21-23, covered enough territory that it qualifies as the first fairly widespread snowfall of the season in Cardinal News’ coverage area, mainly affecting Southwest Virginia areas west of Interstate 77 and near the West Virginia state line, with elevations above 2,500 feet or so favored for the more significant amounts. Some of the highest elevations of eastern West Virginia got between 1 and 2 feet of snow.
Some streaky, spotty light snow accumulation occurred as far east as the New River Valley and the higher elevations of the Blue Ridge north and south of Roanoke. Blacksburg’s 0.1 inch measured on Nov. 21 marked the town’s first official measurable snow in November since 2014, the longest streak on record without at least 0.1 inch of November snow in Blacksburg dating back to the 1890s.
There were many locations that received 1-2 inches in Southwest Virginia, but the following locations turned in reports of “plowable snow” — i.e. 3 or more inches — to National Weather Service offices.
Burke’s Garden, Tazewell County: 7.4 inches
Whitetop, Grayson County: 7 inches
Tazewell, Tazewell County: 6 inches
Richlands, Tazewell County: 4.5 inches
Glade Spring, Washington County: 4 inches
Saltville, Smyth County: 4 inches
Wise, Wise County: 3.3 inches
Honaker, Russell County: 3 inches
Jonesville, Lee County: 3 inches
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:
