There is no better way to start the annual snowfall prediction contest than with a preliminary round of accumulating snow for parts of our region.
If you want to enter the snowfall prediction contest, you can read through (or scroll down) to the subheads below. But we’re going to start off describing what will be for some of the western localities in Cardinal News country the first accumulating snowfall of the 2024-25 cold season, and might briefly spray a few flakes even toward the middle of our broad Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area.
A deep upper-level low will swing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region and across the Appalachians over the next three days. It will provide strong lift and some instability with extremely cold air aloft as gusty northwest winds lift moisture against the Appalachians behind an Arctic cold front.
The result will be periods of snow showers and snow squalls forming over the Appalachians, as moisture primarily from the Great Lakes is lifted, cooled and condensed. This is the “upslope snow” phenomenon that commonly recurs throughout our winters with almost every Arctic cold front, but this particular setup has more upper-level atmospheric support than many others do, so some periods of heavier snow are likely.
The heaviest amounts, with a potential for more than 6 inches, will focus on the western slopes of the ridges in eastern West Virginia, with Thursday night and early Friday likely to be the most likely time for some heavier bands of snow. Some West Virginia ski resorts are not only going to be loving the snow but several nights of cold, snowmaking-friendly weather to kick off their seasons in time for Thanksgiving weekend.
In Virginia, many Southwest Virginia locations along and west of Interstate 77, especially those in higher elevations, may see 1 to 4 inches of snow, as may some higher elevations rimming the western edge of the state northward.
Lower elevations as far east as the Blue Ridge may see periods of snow showers with minor, streaky accumulations possible in the New River Valley. Even the Roanoke Valley might get a few flakes by early Friday. Snow is doubtful east of the Blue Ridge — maybe a few flakes dribble as far east as Bedford, Smith Mountain Lake and Martinsville, but it would be brief. Lower elevations near and east of the Blue Ridge may see more of a mix of sprinkles and flakes.
After being stuck in the 30s and 40s most of Thursday and Friday, maybe even upper 20s where it is snowing most, temperatures in our region will gradually warm back up toward 50s-60s for highs early next week. But there are signs that more dumps of cold air are on the way near Thanksgiving and beyond. There may be wintry precipitation implications for holiday travel, if not in our region in places people may be traveling.
Winter looks like it wants to get out of the gate fast this year. What that means for how often it returns or how long it stays, and how much snow it dumps after consecutive weak snowfall winters and a general five-year snowfall slump, remain to be seen. But you can take your best guess.
Guess how much it will snow
As discussed here three weeks ago particular to this winter, and last March in regard to broader and longer climate patterns, there are many reasons to think that this will be another winter on the lower end of historic snowfall totals for our region.
But then, there is no one in sports betting who, a couple months ago, would have expected Indiana to be 10-0 and Florida State to be 1-9 at this point in the college football season. Surprises can happen. Even if this is a mild winter, just one big winter storm setup could completely change the scoreboard for snow in our region.
It’s time for you to take your best guess at how much snow locations in Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virgina coverage region will get this winter.
This is the third Cardinal Weather snowfall prediction contest. But the contest has a much longer history, as many Roanoke and New River Valley area folks reading this would know, dating back to 2008 in The Roanoke Times. It started with just asking folks reading my Weather Journal column to email in some snowfall total guesses for Roanoke and Blacksburg for the 2008-09 winter. That was the third year of a slow snow period not too different than what we’ve had the last couple winters, but the response was surprisingly strong. Our epic snowy 2009-10 winter stoked further interest in the contest and it became an annual event with more or less the same format throughout the 2010s and into the 2020s, skipping only one year.
Since moving my weather column to Cardinal News in 2022, I’ve struggled a bit in finding an effective format to embrace a much larger region of coverage so that folks everywhere in Southwest and Southside Virginia have at least one location to guess for that is relatively close to where they live. Having verifiable data is a challenge as the National Weather Service operates only four major climate stations within our coverage area (Blacksburg, Danville, Lynchburg and Roanoke). The volunteer cooperative stations scattered across the rest of our region vary their availability of snowfall data. The co-op sites also operate on a different time frame — 7 a.m. to 7 a.m. recording period, instead of midnight to midnight for the major climate stations — so that throws off an effort to have a “first snowfall date” element to the contest as I had for years in the Times.
But the show must go on, whether the snow does or not.
How to enter the contest
Please read this carefully — I get entries every year from people who just randomly pick their own choice of locations or send me a single number for total snow wherever they happen to live.
Contests have to have rules. Mine are simple — but they are slightly different than in years past.
(1) Select THREE locations out of the 10 listed at the bottom of this column.
(2) Guess total snowfall rounded to the nearest inch each of those three will receive between Dec. 1 and March 31. (If you give me fractions or decimals, I’ll do it for you, with halves rounding up.)
(3) Email your guesses to weather@cardinalnews.org. Give me your name and where you live (general location — town, city, part of county — not specific address). It is OK to include more than one entry on the same email, for different family members (no age limits!), or a school group, or something of that nature, just make sure names are clearly labeled for each set of picks.
(4) Deadline for receiving entries is 11:59 p.m. on Saturday, Nov. 30.
The winner of a $25 gift card for first place will be whoever misses total snowfall by the least number of inches — guesses and snow totals rounded to the nearest inch — for the best two of their three picks. If there is a tie, we’ll consider the third pick as a tiebreaker. If it’s still tied, whoever sends me their entry first wins.
If I get 200 entries, I’ll boost it to a $50 gift card for first place and $25 for second place.
Any and all winners, plus some close runner-up finishers, will be recognized in a spring edition of this weather column.
Snowfall contest locations
Remember, pick THREE of the following locations and guess how much snow will occur between Dec. 1 and March 31. It snows sometimes in November and April, but those amounts won’t count here.
I’ve also included seasonal snowfall totals from least to most for each location, rounded to the nearest inch, and a historic average to give you somewhat of a guide for making snowfall guesses. Each of these sites have at least 30 years of data.
Good luck.
Abingdon: 1 (1991-92) to 55 (1995-96); Average, 13.
Appomattox: 0 (multiple winters, most recently 2019-20) to 56 (1995-96); Average, 13.
Blacksburg: 1 (2022-23) to 67 (1995-96); Average, 21.
Burke’s Garden: 7 (1956-57) to 112 (1977-78); Average, 38.
Clintwood: 8 (2022-23) to 90 (1995-96); Average, 36.
Danville: 0 (multiple winters, most recently 2023-24) to 41 (1947-48); Average, 7.
Lynchburg: 0 (2019-10) to 57 (1995-96); Average, 15.
Martinsville: 0 (multiple winters, most recently 2023-24) to 46 (1959-60); Average, 9.
Roanoke: 0 (1918-19/1919-20 and 2022-23, rounded down from 0.4) to 63 (1959-60); Average, 18.
Wytheville: 1 (2022-23) to 59 (1986-97); Average, 19.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:
