I’ll be posting updates and commentary on the election here. For election results, once they start to arrive, see our results page. For a primer on how results get reported and media calls are made, see my column this morning. I’ll be hosting a post-election Zoom with Cardinal News members on Thursday. Not a member yet? Here’s how to become one. You can also sign up for our free weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital, here:
1:51 a.m. Calling it a night
I haven’t seen anything in the past few hours to change anything so I’m going to wind this down. I’ll have a column Wednesday that lays out the six main takeaways from this election so far.
11:26 p.m.: Timmer appears to win Lynchburg Ward I
This was supposed to be close. It wasn’t. We still have early votes to count, but in the day-of voting, Republican Jacqueline Timmer took 49.11%, Democrat Randy Smith 29.11%, independent Cameron Craddock Howe 20.85%.
11:17 p.m. Roanoke mayor’s race will depend on provisionals, late-arriving mail ballots
With all the precincts counted, Republican David Bowers has a 19-vote lead. What we don’t know is a) how many provisional ballots there are and b) how many mail ballots will arrive before noon Friday.
The council winners: Democrats Terry McGuire and Phazhon Nash, along with Republican Nick Hagen, who becomes the first Republican elected to Roanoke City Council since 2000.
10:54 p.m. We’re finally getting numbers out of Lynchburg
Although we were told Lynchburg would report all at once, it’s not. In the closely-watched Ward I race, we have one of five precincts — First Ward First Precinct. It’s a Republican ward and has gone strongly for Republican Jacqueline Timmer. It looks as if independent Cameron Craddock Howe is taking more votes from Democrat Randy Smith than from Timmer.
10:49 p.m.: Two precincts and provisionals out in Roanoke
Both those precincts (East Gate and Williamson Road) should favor Republican David Bowers, but can he make up a 400-vote deficit? We’ll see.
10:34 p.m. Cobb leads Roanoke mayor’s race but precincts to remain favor Bowers
With four precincts out, Democrat Joe Cobb leads Republican David Bowers 13,991 to 13,760, with 9,146 for independent Stephanie Moon.
Of those four precincts still out: East Gate and Williamson Road are likely to go for Bowers. Eurkea Park is likely to go for Moon. The final precinct is the provisional ballots, who are anybody’s else.
In the council race, it looks like Democrats Terry McGuire and Phazhon Nash, with Republican Nick Hagen taking the third slot. That could still change but we’ll see.
10:07 p.m. No Lynchburg results yet
We’re told the city won’t report anything until all the votes are in.
9:59 p.m. Roanoke mayor’s race may go down to the wire
I mentioned earlier that we need to wait for the Black precincts. Lincoln Terrace has just come in and it went 59.38% for independent Stephanie Moon, 28.29% for Democrat Joe Cobb, 12.17% for Republican David Bowers. The implication: Cobb is not doing well in working-class and minority precincts. The good news for him: South Roanoke, Crystal Spring, Deyerle, Lee-Hi, all more affluent precincts, are still out. The bad news for him: So are Garden City, East Gate and Williamson Road, all working-class precincts. This will be very close.
9:40 p.m.: Here’s why Virginia is close
At the moment, the lead in Virginia is see-sawing back and forth between Harris and Trump. Right now, much of the rural (which is to say Republican) vote is in, but a lot of the urban (and Democratic) vote is still out. Norfolk has reported just 18 of 48 precincts, Richmond 21 of 72, Roanoke 4 of 20, and so forth. That suggests Harris will eventually carry the state. However, she is clearly unperforming in Northern Virginia, a key Democratic stronghold, and Trump has expanded on already large vote shares in rural areas, particularly Southwest Virginia.
9:30 p.m. Cobb is underperforming in Roanoke mayor’s race
Democrat Joe Cobb clings to a narrow cling over Republican David Bowers, with independent Stephanie Moon a respectable third. The early vote has been counted, and we’re just now getting to the precincts today.
What I see so far is that Moon seems to be cutting into both her opponents, but she’s cutting into Cobb more.. For instance, let’s look at the Hollins Road precinct. In the presidential race, it’s gone 54.45% for Trump, 42.67% for Harris. In the mayor’s race, it’s gone 44.43% for Bowers, 29.58% for Moon, 25.12% for Cobb. Both Bowers and Cobb are running below their presidential candidates, although Cobb is trailing by more.
In Preston Park, Trump took 55.21% to 42.08% for Harris. In the mayor’s race, Bowers took 47.01%, Moon 27.47%, Cobb 25.10%.
So far what we’re seeing are a lot of working-class precincts. Cobb should do better in more white-collar precincts. What will tell the tale will be the Black precincts.
9:09 p.m.: Harris continues to underperform in Virginia
Harris has carried Radford, but barely. Four years ago, Biden took 53.1% of the vote in Radford. With all the votes counted except provisionals and late-arriving mail ballots, Harris has won there 48.85% to 48.81%. What we don’t know is how many provisionals we might have in Radford, a university town where there might have been a lot of same-day registrations from students. So far, though, this fits into the pattern of Harris underperforming in Virginia.
8:57 p.m.: Harris underperforms across Northern Virginia in partial returns
For me right now, the big surprise of the night is Harris’ underperformance in Loudoun County (see below). That prompted me to look at
Fairfax County: Four years ago, Biden took 69.9%; so far, Harris is taking 65.44% there in partial returns.
Prince William County: Four years ago, Biden took 62.6%; so far, Harris is taking 58.06%.
Arlington County: Four years ago, Biden took 80.6%; so far, Harris is taking 70.54%.
Harris is clearing underperforming across Northern Virginia, a Democratic stronghold. The numbers may yet change but this is not encouraging for Democrats.
8:47 p.m.: Harris underperforms in Loudoun County
Four years ago, Biden won Loudoun County with 61.5%; with apparently all the vote counted except provisionals and late-arriving mail ballots, Harris has won with 56.3%. That’s not a particularly good showing.
That doesn’t bode well for her. She ran a few percentage points behind Democrat Tim Kaine, who took 58.5% there in his Senate race.
8:34 p.m.: A closer look at Radford
This is why we need to dig beneath the surface of the numbers. With three of four precincts reporting, Trump is leading in Radford, 49.85% to 47.97%. If that held, that would be a switch from four years ago, when Biden took 53.1% of the vote in Radford. However, that final precinct out is often the most Democratic one in the city so we need to wait for that before we draw any conclusions, other than that Radford is usually close.
8:27 p.m.: Cobb won the early vote in Roanoke; now for the rest . . .
The numbers being report for Roanoke are from the early voting, which traditionally have skewed Democratic. In the mayor’s race, they show:
Joe Cobb (D) 38.37%
David Bowers (R) 34.65%
Stephanie Moon (I) 26.54%
I’d consider that a pretty good showing for Bowers in the early voting.
For the three council seats, the early voting has Democrats Phazhon Nash and Terry McGuire in first and second, with Republican Nick Hagen in third, with independent Evelyn Powers fourth and so far out of the money. We’ll see if those numbers hold up as the day-of votes get counted.
8:21 p.m.: Trump expands on previous margins in Southwest Virginia
New numbers, new trends, ones which negate my previous post. As more precincts come in, Trump is now increasing his margins in Southwest Virginia over 2020.
Dickenson County: In 2020, Trump won with 78.7%; so far tonight, he’s taking 87.34%
Pulaski County: In 2020, Trump won with 69.8%; so far tonight, he’s taking 78.15%
Tazewell County: In 2020, Trump won with 83.1%; so far tonight, he’s taking 89.06%
Washington County: In 2020, Trump won with 75.6%; so far tonight, he’s taking 80.35%
Wise County: in 2020, Trump won with 80.4%; so far tonight, he’s taking 80.97%
7:42 p.m. Trump running slightly behind expected Republican percentages in rural areas
This is reading a lot into a little but let’s read what we can. One of the big questions has been whether Trump could expand his margins in rural areas — and expand turnout. We don’t know about turnout yet, but we do know about margins and so far the answer is no. We can’t make comparisons with 2020 (a big flaw in this model, I’ll admit) because of the way absentee votes were allocated then. However, we can compare his percentages so far with the 2022 congressional races, and keep in mind that was a Republican year.
Here’s a sampling of precincts I’ve looked at:
Rich Creek in Giles County: 85.7% Republican in 2022; 82.9% for Trump
Dublin in Pulaski County: 84.5% Republican in 2022; 79.5% for Trump
Springville in Tazewell County: 92.3% Republican in 2022; 90.6% for Trump
Freestone in Tazewell County: 90.4% Republican in 2022; 83.6% for Trump
Bent Mountain in Roanoke County: 72.2% Republican in 2022; 63.3% for Trump
There are exceptions, to be sure:
Indian Valley in Tazewell County: 90.1% Republican in 2022; 92.2% for Trump
These percentages won’t matter if the turnout in 2024 is higher than 2020 but we do want to keep an eye on these.
7:33 p.m.: Nobody get excited yet
We’re seeing the Virginia map start to fill in but we don’t have nearly enough yet to start drawing conclusions. I will call attention, though, to what will surely be one of Trump’s be precincts. We can’t make comparisons with 2020 because of absentee ballots that year weren’t allocated to the precinct in which they originated. However, in 2022, West Dante in Dickenson County was a 91.9% Republican precinct. That’s exactly what Trump has taken out of West Dane this year.
7:13 p.m. The first votes are from Prince George County
As always, the first votes in are from a rural county, specifically, Prince George County, which is now starting to report its early vote. This is a county that four years ago went 58.0% for Donald Trump. The early vote has him at 56.7%. The State Board of Elections website notes that these are only some of the early votes, but this satisfies my fixation to record the first place to report.
7 p.m. The polls have closed across Virginia
And now, we wait.
4:23 p.m. All quiet so far across Virginia
So far, the biggest problem we’ve heard about is the situation in Richmond where 11 voters got ballots that didn’t have local races on them. Susan Beals, the state election commissioner, says those voters weren’t able to vote in the local races. Otherwise, everything else seems pretty normal. There were also some long lines in some precincts in Hampton Roads that had lots of student voters. Updated, 6 p.m. with new information.
4:07 p.m. Turnout estimates
ALXNow in Alexandria reports that as of 3 p.m., 66% of Alexandria voters have cast ballots. For comparison, total turnout in Alexandria four years ago was 72.8% so Alexandria appears on track to meet or exceeed that figure.
Black Virginia reports that as of 12:30 p.m., the turnout in Fairfax County wass 61.7%. Four years ago, its total turnout was 76.0% so Fairfax would also seem on track for a similar figure this time. Both of those are strongly Democratic localities. For now, I read nothing into any of these turnout figures.
2:17 p.m.: Precinct chief in Richmond replaced after wrong ballots distributed
Samuel B. Parker of the Richmond Times-Dispatch has been posting on X about a situation in one Richmond precinct where voters were given ballots that listed only federal candidates and not the local ones (and Richmond has a hotly-contested mayor’s race, among other things). The precinct chief has now been replaced. Follow his thread for more.
1:26 p.m.: ‘The world’s eyes are upon us’
I’ve been making a round of check-ins with various political figures around the state to see what’s happening. So far, everything appears quiet. The most unusual thing, says Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax County, is the number of international observers who have shown up to witness an American election.
“I have met people from Hungary, Croatia, Bosnia, Denmark, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Japan, China and Mongolia,” he told me. “Some volunteers here told me they met people from Argentina observing.”
I had a French journalist contact me over the weekend, so we can add that to the list.
Surovell’s take: “The world’s eyes are upon us.”
12:22 p.m.: No voters purged since Oct. 14
For all the commotion over the state’s purge of voter rolls, here’s a twist we weren’t expecting. The Virginia Mercury reports that the State Board of Elections hasn’t removed anyone for checking the “non-citizen” box since Oct. 14. That means the number of people purged remains at the previously reported 1,600 or so. I may be the only person in the state not worked up about this one way or another. The principles involved are big, to be sure, but in practical terms, the actual number of voters involved is so small as to be inconsequential. You can read more in this column.
11:15 a.m.: 9th District saw early voting increase
The strongly Republican 9th District in Southwest Virginia is the only congressional district in Virginia that cast more early votes this year than in the 2020 presidential election. In 2020, the 9th District cast 173,058 early votes. This year: 186,582, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
What’s this mean? We don’t know yet.
Early voting peaked in 2020, the pandemic year, and has been lower every year since (although still much higher than before the pandemic). That means it’s not surprising that other congressional districts, both Democratic and Republican, have seen their early votes decline. It is noteworthy, though, that the 9th saw its increase. The big question: Does this early voting spike in the 9th District portend an overall increase in turnout there, which would benefit Republicans? Or does this simply mean the existing Republican vote was rearranged? We won’t know until it’s all over.
I’ve written before that, generally speaking, Democrats have maxed out their early voting potential and that from here on out, Republicans are the ones who will benefit from early voting — specifically, if they can use early voting to boost turnout in rural areas, particuarly Southwest Virginia, which has some of the lowest turnout rates in the state. For now, though, what Republicans see if they’ve banked about 13,000 more votes out of Southwest than they did four years ago. You can find all the early voting stats on the Virginia Public Access Project.
10:28 a.m.: Warner urges patience, cautions against ‘rash action‘
U.S. Sen. Mark Warner, D-Virginia, last week issued a video statement urging voters to have patience. His office recirculated it again this morning. Among the highlights:
“If your election is not called right away on Tuesday night – even if it doesn’t appear to be that close – there are reasons. Rules have changed. Certain jurisdictions are hand-counting ballots now. That just takes a lot more time. Just because it takes a while to have an election called doesn’t mean there’s anything nefarious or bad going on.”
“This is not going to end in Virginia when our polls close at 7 o’clock on Tuesday, or later in the evening as later states close. We’re probably not going to have a declared winner on Tuesday night. I think we just all got to be prepared for that, and have a little patience with a system that has served us well.”
“It’s going to be a tense time. Please don’t jump to conclusions. As we all tell our kids: just because you see it on the internet, does not mean it’s true. And if you see some story or conspiracy that seems so outrageous, take a deep breath, take a moment, and check other news sites to see if that story is being repeated or if it may just be a one-off.”
“If it comes from a meme or a TikTok video, chances are that may not be accurate. We all need to recognize that these next few days and the hours and days after the election are going to be some of the most critical time, I think, in recent history.”
“I’ve said this many times as Chairman of the Intelligence Committee: there are other nations – China, Iran and Russia in particular – who want to interfere in our elections. They may have a candidate choice, but at the end of the day, what they mostly want to do is undermine our confidence in our system. In two years, we’ll be celebrating the 250th anniversary of our nation. Our democracy has stood up to the test of time, but over these next few days, it may be tested again. At the end of the day, I want to count on my fellow Virginians. We’ll get to a fair result. Whether your candidate wins or loses, we’ll make sure the process is fair, that the votes are counted fairly, and I again implore you, if you see crazy stuff, don’t take rash action.”
9:47 a.m.: Trump paid his bills in Salem
Many readers have wondered whether Donald Trump paid for use of the Salem Civic Center on Saturday. He did.
“The Salem Civic Center was paid in advance for use of the facility on Saturday,” Salem public information officer Mike Stevens said in a statement. “At this point, the venue has received $35,000. Much as we did in 2008, when Sarah Palin held a rally at Salem Football Stadium, we will continue to tabulate personnel and security costs from various departments and attempt to recoup that money, as well.”
His statement also provided this recap:
“For an event that lasted that long (8 a.m. when parking opened until after 8 p.m. when parked cars cleared) it was a very smooth event. Incredibly smooth when you consider some people arrived at 3 a.m. Unfortunately, many were not equipped to be on their feet that long, in line that long, or just simply at an event that long. While we got a small break on the temperature that morning, the sun was still shining brightly and directly on the crowd. We had dehydration, heat exhaustion, some low blood sugar issues, and even some folks who ran out of oxygen. Salem Fire and EMS responded to more than 60 calls for medical assistance at the site, mainly outside of the arena in the sun.”
9:38 a.m.: All 50 state attorneys general condemn political violence
Every state’s attorney general, including Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares, has signed a joint letter condemning political violence ahead of the election:
“Regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s election, we expect that Americans will
respond peacefully and we condemn any acts of violence related to the results. A
peaceful transfer of power is the highest testament to the rule of law, a tradition that
stands at the heart of our nation’s stability. As Attorneys General, we affirm our
commitment to protect our communities and uphold the democratic principles we
serve.
“We call upon every American to vote, participate in civil discourse and, above all,
respect the integrity of the democratic process. Let us come together after this election
not divided by outcomes but united in our shared commitment to the rule of law and
safety of all Americans. Violence has no place in the democratic process; we will
exercise our authority to enforce the law against any illegal acts that threaten it.”
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