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Ticket-splitting may be on the decline, but the few voters who persist in voting for some members of the opposite party could make the difference in this year’s election.
That’s my takeaway from the latest poll from Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership, which was released Wednesday.
The poll focuses on Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District in Hampton Roads, but that’s a classic swing district, and the poll’s findings help shine a light on a key slice of the electorate — with statewide implications.
Let’s get the horse-race numbers out of the way, then we’ll jump into what I find more interesting:
In the congressional race, Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans has seen her lead disappear and is now effectively tied with Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal. In September, the CNU poll found Kiggans ahead 45% to 40%. Now, the poll finds her ahead 46% to 45%, a lead that’s well within the poll’s margin of error of 3.9%. That change has happened because Cotter Smasal is now better known — and as she’s become better known, independents have moved sharply in her direction. In September, independents backed Kiggans 46% to 26%. Now they back her 46% to 41%.
This is a case where Kiggans hasn’t done anything wrong, campaign-wise. Before she was running against someone voters didn’t know much about; now they know more. Given the political lay of the land, this seems like a race that was always going to be close — and now it is. With the 7th District in part of Prince William County and the northern Piedmont, a district that Democrat Abigail Spanberger is departing to run for governor next year, this is one of the two closest congressional races in Virginia.
Of statewide interest, perhaps even national interest, is what this poll tells us about the presidential race. In 2020, Joe Biden carried the 2nd District with 50.1% of the vote to Donald Trump’s 48.2% — en route to a statewide margin of 54.1% to 44.0%. Redistricting has reshaped the 2nd District somewhat since then, making it somewhat more Republican. That’s how Kiggans was able to oust Democrat Elaine Luria two years ago. However, I’ve done the math on that district and the localities that are now in the 2nd District voted for Biden with 52.5% of the vote to Trump’s 47.5%.
How can we say a district became more Republican yet the district shows a higher Biden margin than the previous district? I suspect two things are driving that: The 2022 mid-terms favored Republicans generally, but we also need to keep in mind the type of Republicans involved. Trump has always been weak among suburban Republicans, and this is a mostly suburban district. Hold that thought; it will become important as we delve into the numbers.
CNU’s September poll showed the presidential race in this district tied at 46% apiece. Now the poll shows Harris up 47% to 45%, a difference that’s still within the margin of error. Let’s err on the side of caution and say that, statistically speaking, that’s no real change. It doesn’t really matter. If Trump is tied in Hampton Roads, that’s not good for him statewide. For him to win Virginia, he’s got to win Hampton Roads — or make substantial in-roads in some other part of the state. Wason Center Research Director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo says, “if we extrapolate [from these findings] that would have Harris winning by about 10 points statewide” — exactly what Biden did four years ago.
In the Senate race, this poll shows Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine ahead over Republican challenger Hung Cao 50% to 43% in the 2nd District. The same electoral math applies. Unless Cao has a big break coming somewhere else, he needs to win the 2nd and right now he’s not.
All those horse race numbers will eventually take care of themselves.
To me, the more fascinating parts of the poll are the details that show how different parts of the electorate are thinking — and, in some cases, moving.
On the issues, Republicans and Democrats are talking past one another
This is often the case but it’s still interesting to see.
For 2nd District Republicans (and, according to other polls, Republicans everywhere) are mostly concerned about “inflation and the economy” — 47% of Republicans surveyed cite that as their top issue. Another 28% are worried about immigration.
Neither of these issues register much with Democratic voters. Only 12% of the Democrats in the survey listed inflation and the economy as their top concern and none listed immigration.
Democratic worries about democracy are growing
In September, the CNU poll found 22% of 2nd District Democrats listed “threats to democracy” as their top concern, with abortion second at 19%. The October poll finds abortion still second at 19% but worries about threats to democracy have jumped to 30%.
Independents are growing more worried about threats to democracy, too
The September poll found that independents in the district thought more like Republicans: Their main concern was the economy. That’s not helpful for Democrats. Historically, if voters are worried about the economy, they take it out on the party in power — that’s how Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush in 1992.
The October poll still finds that independents’ top concern is the economy: 34%, about what it was in September. However, we see a lot more independents worried about threats to democracy: The number of independents listing that as their top issue has more than doubled from 11% in September to 23% in October.
What we have here is a a tug-of-war for independents: Republicans appealing to them on the economy, Democrats on threats to democracy.
The challenge for Democrats is that the former is an abstract concept; rising prices are a very real thing that voters feel. If Trump wins the presidency, perhaps the single biggest reason will be that voters are unhappy about the economy under Biden — and aren’t persuaded that Harris will make it better for them. Here’s where the new shape of the Democratic coalition doesn’t serve them well: As Democratic voters have become more educated and more suburban, I have to wonder if that means they’re more isolated from the economic concerns that working-class voters have. Overall, this poll shows that in the 2nd District independents are going for Trump 46% to 41%; concerns about the economy are likely boosting Trump, concerns about his authoritarian tendencies are likely pulling him down.
The ticket-splitters can make the difference
Some small numbers in this poll could wind up making a big difference. The poll shows Democrats backing Harris 96% to 0% — no surprise there. However, it shows among Republicans in the 2nd District, Trump gets 89% — with 6% backing Harris.
That number is pretty consistent. In the House race, 6% of Republicans say they’re backing the Democratic candidate, Cotter Smasl. And in the Senate race, 8% of Republicans say they’re supporting Kaine.
Are these really ticket-splitters or a more unique subset of voters?
Who are these Republicans who are backing Democrats down the line? I’m sure some Republicans would call them RINOs — Republicans In Name Only. Statistically, though, there is a subset of people who consider themselves Republicans but are unhappy with the direction their party is taking. We get a little glimmer of who those Republicans might be when the poll asks which House candidate is trusted most on certain issues. On “reproductive rights, such as abortion or IVF,” the number of Republicans who say they trust the Democratic candidate most jumps to 11%. Kiggans would be in a stronger position if she had 100% backing from her own party. Ditto Trump and Cao.
Again, we must remember that this is generally a suburban district and may not be reflective of Republicans in a more rural district where Trump has always been stronger. In fact, I’d wager at any of Virginia’s casinos that it’s not. However, close elections are won — or lost — around the margins and in a statewide race, what happens in Hampton Roads doesn’t stay in Hampton Roads. Will any of these races be close enough that this subset of disaffected Republicans matters? And while the numbers might be consistent, they could well be different people — so it’s possible we’ll see some voters cast ballots for a Democrat in one contest and a Republican in another. Nationally, it’s alo possible we might see Trump win, but see Republicans lose some suburban congressional districts. They might make those up other places but the result would be a party system that’s even more geographically polarized than it is now. Think of what’s happened in Virginia: Once, Republicans dominated in the suburbans. Now, other than the 2nd, the only congressional districts that Republicans represent in Virginia are rural ones. And the most recent Republican U.S. House member from a suburban district in Virginia, Barbara Comstock who once represented the 10th District in Northern Virginia, has this year endorsed Harris. Will this year’s election accelerate those trends?
The only way to find out the answers to any of these questions is to wait for the proverbial poll that matters most: The one that comes out on the night of November 5 when the election returns are reported.
Another question, though, might take even more elections to answer: Will we see these disaffected Republicans either change the party’s direction more to their liking, or become more comfortable with how it’s presently configured? Or are these Republicans simply the last of a dying breed, much like conservative Democrats of previous era?
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