5 political questions for Labor Day weekend

Labor Day weekend marks the traditional start of the fall campaigns, which is one of those traditions that, as William Shakespeare had Hamlet say, “is a custom more honored in the breach than the observance.”

As I wrote in my weekly newsletter West of the Capital last week (sign up here), I’ve already spotted a campaign sign in Roanoke for a candidate who’s running in November 2025. Elections aren’t even really in the fall anymore. In Virginia, early voting begins Sept. 20, two days before the official start of fall. So, as you get ready to head off to your Labor Day weekend, consider this: Voting begins in just three weeks. This may still be late August on the regular calendar, but on the old election calendar, it’s already mid-October, just with less pumpkin spice.

You can find all the relevant election dates on our Voter Guide, but also note that we have a major revamp coming soon with even more information. We have a new software tool that we’re using that will allow readers to compare candidate positions; this is also a good reminder to candidates to upload your information. We’ve emailed instructions to every candidate running in Cardinal’s main coverage area; if you’re a candidate and you didn’t get the email, let us know at elections@cardinalnews.org. 

Meanwhile, let’s look at the big questions hanging over the 2024 campaigns. In any campaign, the biggest is always: Who’s going to win? This year, there are some others, such as: Will the losers on Nov. 5 — whoever they may be — gracefully concede? Or are we headed for another test of our democracy?

There are other questions, though. They may not be quite as serious as those, but here are five questions, the answers to which will help shape the 2025 results and beyond.

1. Will we see national candidates in Virginia?

That’s another way of asking: Is Virginia really in play? We don’t need no stinkin’ polls to tell us who’s up and who’s down in Virginia or anywhere else; we just need to check the candidates’ travel schedules. JD Vance made one of his first post-convention stops in Virginia, a sign that the Donald Trump campaign certainly believes Virginia is winnable. The venue where Vance spoke, Radford University, was also telling: It’s in the heart of the Republican base in the state. If Trump does win Virginia, it’ll be because of a large turnout (and thunderous margins) in rural Virginia, especially Southwest Virginia. The thunderous margins are guaranteed; the turnout is not, so I read Vance’s appearance in Radford as a sign that Trump is trying to pump up his base. A visit to Northern Virginia would have sent a very different message. 

Before the convention, Trump campaigned in Chesapeake; Hampton Roads is the rare metro area where there are places that are definitely winnable for the Republicans. Four years ago, Trump took 45.8% in Chesapeake and 46.2% in Virginia Beach — far better than the 35.6% he took in Prince William County and similar places in Northern Virginia. Trump did make a controversial appearance this week at Arlington National Cemetery, but that had more to do with a national message than one aimed at a particular state. For now, Democrats are using spouses to target the state: Gwen Walz, the wife of Tim Walz, is scheduled to appear at an event Friday in Manassas. Douglas Emhoff, Kamala Harris’ husband, is expected at an event in Newport News on Monday.

For Republicans, making a play for Virginia is a sign of an expanding map — if Trump or Vance comes back, that’s a sign they think they’re able to play offense in the state. By contrast, if Harris or Walz themselves come, that’s a sign they’re playing defense, forced to use time and resources to hold a state they don’t think should be competitive.

2. Will independents warm to Harris or break for Trump?

Harris has been doing well of late; she has definitely excited Democrats in a way that Biden wasn’t. The recent Roanoke College poll documented just how much she’s fired up Democrats, but she remains behind among independents. In 2020, independents nationally broke for Biden 54% to 41%. In the final Roanoke College poll of the 2020 race, independents in Virginia were leaning Democratic 48% to 36%. In the most recent Roanoke College poll (taken before Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race), independents in Virginia were tilting toward Trump, either 50% to 34% in a two-way race or 47% to 35% in a five-way race. Harris is doing worse among independents than Biden was. The Roanoke College poll in May showed Biden winning independents over Trump 42% to 35% in a two-way race or 39% to 29% in a five-way race with Kennedy as one of the five candidates. Over the summer, Trump has gained ground among independents. How much can Harris win some of those back?

Independents are a challenge for both parties: The nominees need to excite their own base but also win over independents, and sometimes the things that fire up partisans turn off independents. 

3. Will Hung Cao be more like Bill Scott — or Corey Stewart?

The key to our U.S. Senate race between Sen. Tim Kaine, a Democrat seeking a third term, and Republican challenger Hung Cao may have more to do with Cao than Kaine. 

We have two historical comparisons to look at. In 1972, Democratic incumbent Bill Spong was widely expected to win but was upset by Republican Bill Scott, who took advantage of the Richard Nixon presidential landslide and successfully tied Spong to the Democrats’ unpopular presidential nominee, George McGovern.

The Roanoke College poll put the Senate race at Kaine 49%, Cao 39%. That puts Cao in a better position than Republican Corey Stewart was at this stage when he challenged Kaine six years ago. Cao is down by 10 percentage points, Stewart was down by 17. One difference is that last time Kaine was running in the midterm election of a Republican president, generally a favorable environment for the party that’s out of presidential power. This year’s Senate election coincides with a presidential election, which makes the environment more partisan on both sides. 

Kaine is obviously the favorite, but his election is by no means assured: Imagine a scenario that breaks against Harris and enables Trump to win Virginia (see those independents I mentioned above). In that case, could Trump’s coattails sweep in Cao? At the moment, Cao’s main problem seems to be himself: He doesn’t seem to be taking the campaign seriously. He’s called the Staunton newspaper “podunk.” He’s said it was “ridonkulous” to drive to Abingdon for a campaign forum. He labeled everything south of Loudoun and Fairfax counties as “Southern Virginia.” He’s skipped two events that are traditionally must-attend events: the Virginia Bar Association debate and the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce debate. Challengers usually want as many chances as possible to stand on equal footing with the incumbent and land some blows, especially before an influential audience. I’ve talked to Republicans who are just baffled by Cao’s campaign so far. He’s not doing the things he needs to win, but events may yet trend his way.

4. Will Republicans warm to early voting?

Democrats have always been more enthusiastic about early voting than Republicans have been, although I’ve pointed out in previous columns that Republicans have more to gain from early voting at this point than Democrats do. Rural areas vote the heaviest for Republicans; rural areas also have some of the lowest rates of early voting. The key to Republicans winning in Virginia is to maximize the rural vote; early voting offers them a tool to do so.

Relying solely on same-day voting is a risky proposition, especially west of the Blue Ridge. We haven’t had that many Election Day floods, but we have had one that skewed results: The Flood of 1985 cost Republicans a House of Delegates seat in the Shenandoah Valley. The home turf of Republican Phoebe Orebaugh around Broadway in Rockingham County was underwater, while Harrisonburg, the base of Democrat Paul Cline, was high and, while not necessarily dry, not inundated like the Republican areas were. Had there been early voting in 1985, and had Republicans made use of it, Orebaugh might well have won.

5. Will we get clarity on the 2026 governor’s race?

This being Virginia, we’re always looking ahead to the next campaign. I’ve already seen a campaign sign in Roanoke for Abigail Spanberger, the likely Democratic candidate for governor next year. There are four official candidates for the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor and two for attorney general. Those numbers could yet rise. By contrast, the Republicans are frozen in stasis. Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is expected to run, but nobody can politely declare for that office until they know she’s not seeking reelection. Ditto Attorney General Jason Miyares. Will either of them make a formal move (or even an informal one that’s exceptionally clear) before the presidential election, or will they wait? 

There are good reasons for waiting: The last time Trump won the presidency, he produced such an anti-Trump response in Virginia that Democrats made unexpected gains in the state. There’s no reason to think Trump 2.0 would be any different. A Trump win in 2024 creates a favorable environment for Democrats in Virginia in 2025. However, a Harris win might have the opposite response, maybe not to the same degree, but we’d have to see. Republicans who want to hold onto the governorship might secretly need to wish for Trump to lose. 

Politics can be complicated, but a long holiday weekend is not. Go hit the trails, the lake, the ballpark, whatever it is that fits your passion. The Lynchburg Hillcats wrap up their final homestand this weekend; the Salem Red Sox begin their last one on Monday. When you go back to work on Tuesday, it’ll be less than three weeks before you can cast your vote.