OK, Tom Perriello is, as of this writing, not dead. So, maybe a better way to phrase it is “John McGuire and the Ghost of Tom Perriello’s One Term in Congress,” but that isn’t a great headline.
The Virginia 5th District has a reputation for being a “safe” Republican seat. The Cook Political Report rates the 5th as a +7 Republican district. However, the district’s electoral past is not as predictable. In November of 2008, Democrat Tom Perriello won the 5th Congressional District of Virginia by less than 800 votes, defeating Republican Virgil Goode. In the previous election, 2006, Goode won the same district by about 40,000 votes against Democrat Al Weed. Coming full circle, Perriello lost the district to Republican Robert Hurt by 9,000 votes in 2010.
But the quirks of the 5th District go back further. Goode was first elected to the 5th in 1996 as a Democrat but was considered fairly conservative by party standards. Eventually, he switched parties and then won as a Republican, the first to win the district since 1889. By 2008 he was firmly a Republican. The 5th District was, aside from points north (Charlottesville and Nelson County) very red.
But in 2008 Tom Perriello, a Democrat, won. He won by only about 800 votes. That is to say, it was very close. Very close elections in the 5th are nothing new (nor are they in the past). So why do I bring this up? 2008 was, in many ways, an odd year for elections, but one which might be repeating in 2024.
2008 was the year of the Obama-driven electoral wave. An Obama “bounce” lifted Democrats all over the country down the ticket, resulting in the Democrats winning 21 new seats in the House. Perriello certainly benefited from the overwhelming enthusiasm people had for Obama. Look at the difference between 2006 and 2008. In 2006 Goode won by 20 points, in 2008 Periello closed that 20-point gap, albeit just barely. Further evidence of the 2008 Obama effect was that in 2010, when the Democrats got a “shellacking” as part of a backlash against Obama, Republican Hurt won by about 3%, pretty good against an incumbent (Perriello).
The real lesson here is that in 2008, Goode lost by only 800 votes. Obama on the ticket turned out a huge wave of Democratic party voters. It was close; had Obama been less popular, one can imagine Goode winning reelection fairly easily. But a win is a win.
Could that happen again? I am not suggesting that Harris is Obama in that way, but she sure has stirred up enthusiasm amongst the Democratic base. There is every possibility that if there was a similar “Harris bounce,” the current Democratic candidate for the 5th, Gloria Witt, could squeak by a win against Republican John McGuire just as Perriello did in 2008.
Looking at the past few elections in the 5th, we can see some evidence that while the district leans Republican, it is not overwhelmingly so. In 2018, Republican Riggleman won by 6%. 2018 was a mini Democratic wave as a Trump backlash set in. In 2020, Bob Good, new to voters in the district, won by 5% against Democrat Cameron Webb. And of course, 2020 had Biden on the national presidential ticket, and there was a strong get-out-the-vote among Democrats, with Biden winning Virginia as a whole by 10 percentage points. However, in 2022, Good was now an incumbent, and with people not motivated by either pro-Biden or anti-Trump fervor, the split was wider. Good won by 15 points.
So you can see, the district bounces around a fair amount, although it does seem to land on the Republican side most often.
One other factor that might play in November is the most recent Republican primary in the 5th. The epic battle of Good versus McGuire drew national headlines, a huge influx of outside money, and a bitter campaign. The result was an almost 50/50 split among Republicans. No doubt some Good supporters are bitter over his loss. Will they vote for McGuire? Probably most will, but if a large enough percentage withhold their vote, it could matter. (I am not suggesting that very many, if any, will vote for the Democratic candidate Witt.)
The one factor that needs to be considered is that the boundaries of the 5th District changed in 2021, due to redistricting. The district added the city of Lynchburg and the counties of Louisa, Amherst, Powhatan, Goochland, Nottoway, Amelia and a part of Hanover County, and lost the counties of Brunswick, Fauquier, Franklin, Greene, Henry, Madison and Rappahannock up north. But despite these changes, the estimated difference was thought to be about a 0.6% shift toward Republicans, in an already GOP-heavy district. Good won by 15 points because he was an incumbent running against a fairly weak and relatively unknown Democrat and not so much due to redistricting.
The big question is, could we see a repeat of 2008? Can Republicans withstand some sort of Democratic Harris-led wave of voters? Can McGuire hold onto all the people who voted for Good in the primary? The primary was bruising for the Republicans; maybe some Good supporters would withhold their vote and it would be enough to matter? These are serious questions that the McGuire and Witt campaigns should ask themselves. Those expecting a 15-point Republican margin like 2022 might be in for a rude surprise come November 5.
David Richards is an assistant professor and chair of political science at the University of Lynchburg. He was born and raised in Amherst County.
