The big excitement in the 5th Congressional District may be in our rear view mirror: John McGuire has ousted Rep. Bob Good as the Republican nominee, first in the June 18 primary, then again in the Aug. 1 recount.
For some, this district is now an afterthought. The big attention in Virginia’s House races this year will be on the other side of the state, starting with the open seat in the 7th District between Richmond and Northern Virginia, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger is leaving so she can run for governor next year. The 2nd District in Hampton Roads is almost always competitive, and Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans faces a challenge from Democrat Missy Smasal. The 10th District in Northern Virginia leans Democratic but is open with Jennifer Wexton’s retirement. The route to a majority, for one party or another, will run through those districts.
However, a reader in Lynchburg recently posed a question I found intriguing: Is it possible that Democrat Gloria Witt could “pull a Perriello” and replicate Democrat Tom Perriello’s upset win in the 5th District in 2008? (You can read that commentary by David Richards of the University of Lynchburg).
I love that kind of question because it can be answered with math and math doesn’t care about my feelings (something I learned the hard way in Fred Pence’s algebra class back at Montevideo High School in Rockingham County).
Let’s review the history that undergirds the reader’s question, then turn to today.
In 2008, Republican Virgil Goode of Franklin County was the 5th District’s representative. That was also a presidential year — as this one is — and Barack Obama ran unexpectedly strong in Virginia, becoming the first Democrat to carry the state since Lyndon Johnson in the landslide year of 1964. Perriello, a Democrat from Albemarle County, rode in on Obama’s coattails, edging Goode by just 727 votes — 158,810 to 158,083. Perriello lasted just one term but was in Congress long enough to vote for the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare.
Our Lynchburg reader is struck by the possible similarities between 2008 and 2024: a Black candidate at the head of the Democratic ticket, one who seems to be exciting the party’s base (certainly in a way that Joe Biden wasn’t). The better Kamala Harris runs, the better Gloria Witt (and all other down-ballot Democrats) should do. Plus, the Good-McGuire primary was a particularly vitriolic one; Good has already filed to run again in 2026. Is it possible that some Good supporters would simply skip the congressional race this fall, depressing McGuire’s totals at the same time that Witt’s might be elevated? If so, is it possible that she might be able to win?
These are all good questions. Now let’s see what the answers might be.
The first thing to know is that while the 5th District today is roughly similar to the 5th District that elected Perriello, it’s not exactly the same — and those differences are critical. The district has been redrawn twice since Perriello’s election, first after the 2010 census and then again after the 2020 census. The most recent redistricting was done under the state’s new redistricting rules; when a bipartisan commission deadlocked, the task fell to the Virginia Supreme Court, which appointed two “special masters,” one from each party, to draw the lines. I’ve been generally complimentary of their work because it was done without partisan intent; their guidestar was to create geographically coherent districts, which they generally did, with the exception of the 1st Congressional District and its weird hook into western Chesterfield County — although that was necessitated by having to comply with various court rulings on minority representation with the other congressional districts around Richmond. Anyway, the point is that while the 5th in 2008 was mostly a Southside district (plus the Charlottesville area) and the district today is mostly a Southside district (plus the Charlottesville area), there are some important differences.
One of the biggest, from a Democratic perspective, is that Brunswick County is no longer in the 5th — it’s now in the 4th District, represented by Jennifer McClellan, D-Richmond. In 2008, Brunswick delivered a 1,472-vote margin for Perriello. In a close race, every vote matters, but if you want to think that it was Brunswick County that delivered his victory, you’re not wrong. Without that Brunswick margin, he’d have lost.
On the other hand, Franklin County is no longer in the district, either. It’s now in the 9th District, represented by Morgan Griffith, R-Salem. In 2008, Franklin County delivered a 6,087-vote margin for native son Goode. To the south, Henry County (then split between districts) gave Goode a 2,247-vote margin.
The main difference between 2008 and today is that those Republican-voting counties in the west have now been replaced by Republican-voting counties in the east — while no Democratic-voting localities have been added to replace Brunswick County.
New to the district as of two years ago are Amelia County, Goochland County, Louisa County, Nottoway County, Powhatan County and part of Hanover County. In the 2020 presidential election, the Republican vote in those counties ranged from a low of 58.8% in Goochland County to a high of 71.2% in Powhatan County. The Republican margin in Powhatan alone was 8,735 votes; in all of those “new” counties, the Republican margin totaled 21,076 votes — before we even get to figuring out the margin in that western part of Hanover. The point is, those new eastern counties more than make up for the Republicans lost when Franklin County and part of Henry County were reassigned to the 9th District.
The challenge for any Democratic candidate is how to make up that vote deficit when no Democratic-voting locality was added to the district; the only solution is to try to win even larger margins in the Democratic parts of the district and try to cut into those Republican margins elsewhere. Hold that thought.
There are two localities left out of that list of new additions above: Amherst County and Lynchburg. Both were previously in the 6th but now are in the 5th. Amherst isn’t much help for Democrats; that’s a county where four years ago Republicans took 64.9% in the presidential race, accounting for a 5,369-vote margin. That only makes the Democratic deficit even bigger.
Lynchburg is a more interesting situation. Four years ago, Biden carried the Hill City, taking 49.6% of the vote to Trump’s 47.0%. It was the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had carried Lynchburg since Harry Truman in 1948, and even Biden’s plurality was the highest percentage for any Democratic presidential candidate there since Franklin Roosevelt in 1944. (Roosevelt took 64.1%, Truman took 36.8% in a four-way race). In terms of raw votes (which is what really matters), Biden pulled a margin of 951 votes out of Lynchburg. Even if Witt mirrored that this year, that wouldn’t be enough to offset all those other Republican margins.
So far, I’m not being very encouraging toward Democrats, but don’t blame me, blame the electoral math: The 5th District, as configured today, is simply more Republican than it was when Perriello was elected 16 years ago.
In 2020, the most recent presidential election, Good won the 5th by 20,673 votes. In the 2022 midterms, when turnout was lower, he won by 47,195 votes (which suggests that a lot of Democratic voters sat out that year, not unusual for midterms). If we go back to those 2020 results, then several questions arise: Who will vote at heavier rates this fall in the 5th, Democrats or Republicans? Will McGuire run ahead or behind Good’s totals? How many Republicans might not vote for McGuire because they’re unhappy about the primary result? Would the most favorable Democratic scenarios to all those questions make up about 21,000 votes?
Let’s take a different look at the district, though, and pose this thought experiment: If a Democrat were to win the 5th District, how would they likely do it?
There are some obvious ways. Whether they work, well, let’s do the math, but the places to look are pretty clear.
Albemarle County and Charlottesville
This is the biggest source of Democratic votes in the district. And the biggest source of votes, period. Perriello rolled up a 13,420-vote margin in Albemarle and a 12,176-vote margin in Charlottesville. Now, here’s the problem: In the congressional race four years ago between Good and Democrat Cameron Webb (which is a good comparison because it was also in a presidential year), the Democratic candidate scored a 23,356-vote margin in Albemarle and a 17,857-vote margin in Charlottesville — and still lost by a wide margin districtwide. Can Witt this year expand on those margins? To win, she’ll need to. In percentage terms, Perriello took 63.3% in Albemarle; Webb improved that to 68.2% — and still lost. Webb also ran ahead of Biden, in both raw votes and in percentages, in Albemarle County. Will Kamala Harris run better or worse than Biden four years ago? (For now, let’s assume better.) How many more votes can Democrats pull out of Albemarle and Charlottesville?
Danville
Here’s a 60%-plus Democratic city. The problem for Democrats is it’s just not very big. Perriello took a 3,165-vote margin out of Danville. Webb managed a 5,001-vote margin out of Danville — and, again, still lost. (Once again, he ran better than Biden.) How many more votes can Democrats maximize out of Danville?
Lynchburg
Here is a potential target of opportunity for Democrats. Witt is well-known here since she’s from neighboring Amherst. Meanwhile, the Lynchburg-area congressman, Good, has been booted out by his own party. More to the point, Good won Lynchburg in the primary, but lost badly elsewhere, so the question is whether Witt can capitalize on this. Can she boost her numbers in a place that knows her? And how many Lynchburg Republicans will just “forget” to mark a congressional choice? We might be geting ahead of things, though. The real question here is how the presidential race goes. Trump’s raw vote totals in Lynchburg declined slightly from 2016 to 2020, while Biden’s numbers were significantly above Hillary Clinton’s numbers the cycle prior. From a distance, it appears that Biden brought out voters in Lynchburg who had previously stayed at home. Will Trump’s vote totals in Lynchburg be higher or lower than four years ago, or roughly the same? Will Harris be able to improve on Biden’s numbers? Right now, she’s running a lot better in the polls than he did. Lynchburg is the second-largest locality in the district (behind only Albemarle). Witt needs Harris to run especially strong here — and needs a combination of Trump’s voting either staying the same or falling, plus a lot of Trump voters not voting for McGuire.
Elsewhere in the district
There are only a few other places that tend to vote Democratic, and the margins they provide are relatively small. Perriello took a 678-vote margin out of Prince Edward County; Webb improved that to 716. However, here’s the biggest problem for Democrats: Increasing Republican margins in rural areas.
When Perriello won in 2008, he took 50.2% of the vote in Buckingham County. In 2020, Webb took just 44.4% of the vote there and in 2022 Thronburg fell to 35.0% of the vote there. In terms of raw numbers, Perrillo’s 3,446 votes in Buckingham in 2008 turned into 3,595 for Webb four years ago. That’s right, Webb outperformed Perriello in Buckingham but still lost because the Republican vote increased: From 3,424 for Goode in 2008 to 4,438 for Good four years ago. That reflects what was happening at the presidential level. In 2008, Barack Obama carried Buckingham County by a narrow margin: 3,489 to 3,428. By 2020, Joe Biden was nearly replicating Obama’s totals in Buckingham; he polled 3,471 votes. However, the Republican vote exploded: Donald Trump took 4,544 votes in Buckingham and that helped pull up Good’s vote.
We see similar trends in Nelson County, another rural county that Perriello carried. In 2008, Obama took 4,391 votes in Nelson; four years ago Biden nearly matched that at 4,327. The difference is that 2008 John McCain won 3,647 votes in Nelson; four years ago, Trump won 4,812. For Democrats (especially those not in rural Virginia) who wonder why Trump is so competitive in the state, this is why. He’s been able to squeeze votes out of rural areas that no other candidate has.
Furthermore, Perriello in 2008 ran ahead of Obama in some counties, notably populous Albemarle County. True, that was Perriello’s home base, but those 2,035 “extra” votes that he got in Albemarle that Obama didn’t sure made the difference in the 5th District race. In Appomattox County, Perriello ran 117 votes ahead of his party’s presidential nominee. In Nelson County, Perriello 171 votes ahead of Obama. In Fluvanna County, 379. Can Witt run ahead of Harris?
What Witt really needs is for Harris to cut into Trump’s margins in rural areas — and then for some of those Trump voters to pass over McGuire. I’ll leave it to your imagination as to how well Harris might run in rural areas. That has not exactly been Democrats’ forte. Here is where the interests of the Harris campaign may not be the same as the interests of the Witt campaign. The Harris campaign will want to focus on Northern Virginia and the rest of the urban crescent; that’s typically how Democrats win in Virginia (when they do win). For her, that may be sufficient to win in the Old Dominion. Witt will need Harris to put some effort into rural areas — at least the rural areas in the 5th District. If Harris thinks she’s going to win Virginia anyway, will she? Or would her campaign conclude it’s better to invest limited resources to, say, rural North Carolina to try to tip a state that could be in play?
I’m not inclined to place bets on anything, least of all politics. But if you are, here’s the math you need to know.
What’s the effect of Kennedy dropping out?
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has suspended his independent campaign for president and instead endorsed Donald Trump. What’s the political impact? That’s one of the things I’ll look at this week in West of the Capital, our free weekly political newsletter that goes out Friday afternoons.
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