For more on the June 18 primaries, see our voter guide. On Tuesday night, we’ll have live results from The Associated Press, and I’ll be offering analysis throughout the evening as numbers come in.
Elections don’t just tell us who has won and who has lost. They also help us answer questions. Here are some questions that Tuesday’s primaries across Virginia will help answer — at least for a while.
What kind of Republican Party do Republicans want?
The marquee race is the 5th District Republican primary, where state Sen. John McGuire of Goochland County is challenging Rep. Bob Good of Campbell County. Much of this race has been around who is the stronger supporter of former President Donald Trump. Trump himself has endorsed McGuire and called Good “bad for Virginia.”
There’s another dimension to this contest, though. Good’s claim to fame, at least nationally, is that as head of the House Freedom Caucus he’s been The Great Disruptor, specifically helping to bring down Speaker Kevin McCarthy. A Good victory would signify that 5th District Republicans either a) like that, b) don’t mind that, or c) overlooked all that because Good is the incumbent and they like him for other reasons.
A McGuire victory, though, might — key word, might — show that Republican voters aren’t keen with Good’s modus operandi. I say “might” because it might also be that voters are simply responding to the Trump endorsement, and Trump himself is a disruptor in other ways. So that Good-McGuire choice isn’t clear-cut.
Other races, though, might be.
In Lynchburg, the Republican city council primary in Ward IV offers voters there a very clear choice between two Republican factions that have clashed since Republicans won a majority on the council in November 2022: the hardline faction of Jeff Helgeson and Marty Misjuns, or the more temperate faction of Mayor Stephanie Reed and Vice Mayor Chris Faraldi. I’m struggling with how to describe that other faction for the benefit of readers outside Lynchburg: Reed and Faraldi are more moderate in tone, but not necessarily in politics. I’d consider them more traditional conservatives.
In any case, the Ward IV primary pits Faraldi against challenger Peter Alexander, who is backed by Helgeson and Misjuns. An Alexander win would represent a clear victory for that more hard-line faction and, depending on other results in November, might set the stage for Helgeson getting named mayor. A Faraldi victory would be a personal vindication for him but also something of a repudiation of the Helgeson-Misjuns faction (although they could counter that it simply represents the power of incumbency).
Another such choice before Republicans is in the Vinton District of Roanoke County, where there’s a primary for county supervisor — a vote that’s tantamount to election since there’s no Democratic candidate expected on the fall ballot. Tammy Shepherd is the incumbent, appointed over the winter after Jason Peters was elected commissioner of the revenue. Tim Greenway is running against her; he’s been on the county school board where he’s been, shall we say, outspoken. Shepherd seems a more conventional — that is to say, businesslike — conservative, concerned with economic growth. Greenway has a different understanding of what conservatism is: “When you’ve fought to keep the boys in the boys’ bathrooms and the girls in the girls’ bathroom, when you’ve fought to keep books about sexual orientation out of the hands of elementary-school kids, and when you’ve fought to keep our schools open during the COVID year, I don’t think I have to explain if I’m conservative or not,” he told Cardinal News.
If Tuesday’s results come down as McGuire/Faraldi/Shepherd, that would suggest Republican voters want a more traditional conservatism. If they come down as Good/Alexander/Greenway, that would suggest they want a more confrontational brand of conservatism. If they come down split, well, who knows?
Will endorsements matter?
The biggest is Trump’s, and that will play out (or not) in two races — the 5th District Republican primary where he’s endorsed McGuire, and the Senate primary where he’s endorsed Hung Cao.
Trump’s endorsement of McGuire has legitimized McGuire’s argument that he’s the true Trumper in the race. If McGuire wins, Trump can certainly claim the credit. However, Good has a conservative identity of his own, and four years in office; so if Good wins, I’m not sure that would be seen as a repudiation of Trump — just a sign that not even Trump’s endorsement is enough to dislodge this particular incumbent.
The Senate race is different. The only one of the five candidates who has done enough to distinguish himself is Cao — partly through his own foolishness (calling Staunton “podunk,” saying Abingdon is too far to drive for a campaign forum), but also partly through a Trump endorsement.
Endorsements may (or may not) factor in some other races. That Lynchburg Ward IV council primary has council members Helgeson and Misjuns backing Alexander and Mayor Reed backing Faraldi, along with other notable Republicans, such as Sen. Mark Peake and Del. Wendell Walker.
Another place where an endorsement might matter is the 10th District Democratic primary, in Northern Virginia, which has 12 — yes, 12! — candidates. Rep. Jennifer Wexton, who is retiring, has endorsed Del. Suhas Subramanyam. Based on fundraising (he’s the second biggest fundraiser in that field), Subramanyam was a strong candidate anyway, but Wexton’s endorsement may help further lift him out of the pack.
Will money matter?
Randy Newman said it does, but he’s a singer, not a political analyst. Money does matter in politics in one sense: Candidates need enough to get their message out. If they can’t meet whatever that threshold is (and that will vary from race to race, place to place), they’re out of luck. If they do have enough to get their message out, then they don’t need more money than the other side — although more money always helps.
We’ll get the clearest test of money in the seven-way 7th District Democratic primary, where Eugene Vindman has raised more than $5 million, almost five times more than all six competitors put together. The nearest Democrat: Andrea Bailey with $338,772.
While Vindman, a retired military officer (whose twin brother testified against Trump in his Ukraine-related impeachment hearings), has the money, other candidates have longer resumes in the district. One of his Democratic opponents — Brianna Sewell — is a member of the House of Delegates and another — Elizabeth Guzman — is a former member. If one of them wins (or, for that matter, any of the Democrats not named Vindman), it will certainly be a triumph of grassroots over money.
In the Republican Senate primary, Cao also has a distinct financial lead. He’s raised nearly $2.5 million, while Jonathan Emord and Scott Parkinson are at just over $930,000 apiece, with Chuck Smith and Eddie Garcia further back.
None of these questions, however, are either-or. McGuire, for instance, leads Good in money. If McGuire wins, will that be because he had more money or because he had a Trump endorsement, or both? If Good wins, does that voters are in a mood for disruption, or does it simply mean incumbents almost always have an advantage and McGuire’s support was thin?
Tuesday’s election may answer some of these questions, but not all.
In this week’s West of the Capital:
I write a free weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital, that goes out every Friday afternoon at 3 p.m. You can sign up below:
Here’s some of what will be in this week’s newsletter:
- A final look at the latest early voting numbers.
- John McGuire picks up an interesting endorsement.
- How the Roanoke Democratic city council primary is now open to legal challenges and crossover mischief. (One candidate whose campaign is under investigation for faulty petitions says he’s dropped out but hasn’t legally quit the race so could still win a nomination).
- Another way that Staunton isn’t “podunk” as one Senate candidate implied.
- The implications of the NAACP lawsuit against Shenandoah County for restoring Confederate names to some schools.
- I’ll also share more information on who’s speaking at the cannabis conference that Cardinal News is hosting Oct. 15 at Roanoke College. The conference is expected to attract participants from across Virginia, but space is limited. More information about the program, sponsorships and early bird registrations are available now. To take advantage of a $25 discount off the $150 ticket, use the promo code “early bird” before Aug. 1.
