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11:54 p.m.: Closing up shop for the night
That’s it for tonight. Check my column Wednesday for deeper analysis.
11:51 p.m.: Haley wins Vermont
If you’re still up, note that we have a change. Nikki Haley has won Vermont. Earlier she led, then fell behind, now she’s up and has been projected as the winner. That looks like the only place she’ll win on Super Tuesday — unless you count our own Northern Virginia.
10:40 p.m.: Greensville County is Biden’s best locality
In the previous update, I identified Trump’s best locality, so now it’s Biden’s turn. His best showing was in Greensville County, where he took 94.9% of the vote. Greensville edged out Brunswick County, where Biden took 94.7% of the vote.
10:35 p.m.: Buchanan County is Trump’s top county
I’m now back after writing my column for Wednesday. For those wondering about one of the questions I posed earlier — which county would be Trump’s top county? — we have an answer. Buchanan County has voted 95.5% for Trump. Buchanan beats out Dickenson County next door, where Trump took 92.5%, and Lee County, where Trump took 92.3%. Buchanan County was also Trump’s top county in the Republican presidential primary eight years ago.
9:22 p.m.: And that’s a wrap for now
I’ll have deeper analysis in my column Wednesday but this is the picture for now: Trump wins Virginia by a wide margin, but the win shows how he has yet to win over suburban Republicans in Northern Virginia (and a few other places). Meanwhile, he’s greatly expanded his margins in rural Virginia, particularly Southwest and Southside, taking more than 90% of the vote in some Southwest counties and close to 90% in much of Southside.
8:58 p.m.: Roanoke goes for Trump
Most of the Roanoke numbers are now in and it’s gone for Trump — bigly, as they say.
8:09 p.m.: If you’re curious about Roanoke . . .
Haley leads in Roanoke, but the only votes in are the early voting numbers, so we don’t have any day-of numbers yet. Roanoke is historically one of the later-reporting cities.
7:59 p.m.: Trump pulls ahead in Vermont
If you were looking for a place where Haley might win and were counting on Vermont, you might want to count again. Trump is now out in front there.
7:44 p.m.: Haley winning in Northern Virginia but wiped out elsewhere
Fairfx County is now starting to report and Haley is leading there, but overall, the race in Virginia is over. Trump has won, and here’s part of the reason why: Across Southwest and Southside, he’s taking 90% of the vote in many localities. Right now, we’re mostly looking at the numbers for demographic trends, not the overall result.
7:40 p.m.: Haley leads in Vermont
For those of you curious about other states, Haley is leading in Vermont 51% to 44%, but I doubt that will carry much weight with Republicans.
7:34 p.m.: Carroll County also giving Trump 94%
What will be Trump’s best county in Virginia? Right now it’s a race between Carroll County and Dickenson County, both logging 94% for him in early returns.
7:28 p.m.: Haley leads in Arlington and Alexandria
This won’t matter in terms of the final result — that’s over, Trump has won the Virginia primary — but Haley is putting up impressive margins in Arlington (71.5%) and Alexandria (69.9%). However, she’s getting blown out elsewhere. In Dickenson County, Trump is taking 94%. In Wise and Buchanan counties, 93%.
7:23 p.m.: Haley leads Trump in early voting in Roanoke
Roanoke has reports its early voting; Haley won 50.7% to 46.7%
7:16 p.m.: Trump taking 94% in Dickenson County
With two of 10 precincts report, Trump is rolling up 94% of the vote in this coalfield county.
7:13 p.m.: Trump edges Haley in early voting in Loudoun County
Now we’re finally getting some interesting things to look at. Loudoun County — the type of suburban county where Trump has been weak — has now reported all of its early voting. Trump edged Haley in those Loudoun County early votes, 49.64% to 47.55%. That’s an impressive showing by Haley but, if you’re a Haley supporter, it would have been better if she had won there. Overall, if you’re a Trump supporter, you should be pleased that he won there, however narrowly in the early voting. We’ll see how the day-of voting goes.
7:09 p.m.: First votes in are from Madison County
I always like to see who’s first to report and tonight the winner is Madison County. To no one’s surprise, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are winning big on their respective sides.
7:01 p.m.: CNN calls Virginia for Biden
Again, no surprise. What we’re waiting for are some numbers to chew on.
7 p.m.: The polls have closed in Virginia
And now we wait.
6 p.m.: Here’s what to look for tonight
OK, let’s be realistic here: The outcome in either party’s presidential primary isn’t in doubt in Virginia but that there are still some things in the returns we’ll try to look for. Here are some of the questions I’ll be looking to answer:
- How big is Nikki Haley’s vote in Virginia tonight? We expect Donald Trump to win overall but are there places where she’ll win — and what will that tell us about Trump’s strength or weakness going this fall? For comparison purposes, here are the localities that Marco Rubio won in the 2016 Republican primary in Virginia. Can Haley top that or will she fall short? I’ll also be looking not just at percentages but raw vote totals.
- Nationally, will there be any places that Haley wins tonight, or does unusually well? Or will this be a complete Trump blow-out across the board?
- On the Democratic side, are there any places where Joe Biden’s support is unusually soft? In the 2020 Democratic presidential primary in Virginia, Biden won every locality except for three: Charlottesville, Floyd County and Harrisonburg.
- What are the vote totals? How do those compare to previous primaries? We can use those to measure the relative enthusiasm on each side.
So, those are the main questions. The polls close at 7 p.m. and sometime after that we’ll start to get some answers.
