It’s almost the end of the year, so a good time to look back on all the things that happened. Conveniently, I began the year by posing 23 questions about what might happen in 2023. Now, at last, we can answer them, so here goes.
1. What will Gov. Glenn Youngkin do?
The governor entered his second year pretty popular and remained so at the end. One of his biggest accomplishments was important, but not particularly sexy: an overhaul in state workforce programs. He pushed hard for permanent tax cuts but didn’t get them; instead, he had to settle for tax rebates. His most controversial move — at least as it relates to our part of the state — was his decision to nix an incentive offer to lure a Ford electric vehicle battery plant to the Southern Virginia Megasite in Pittsylvania County because of Ford’s ties to a Chinese manufacturer.
2. Will Youngkin run for president?
Sure doesn’t look like it. The Youngkin-for-president chatter dominated much of 2023 but now seems to have died off. The calendar was never in Youngkin’s favor: Running for president is a multiyear endeavor and he’s not even halfway through the single term he’s allowed as Virginia governor. To mount a serious campaign, he’d have had to spend all of 2023 running and not governing. For context, Donald Trump formally announced last year, on Nov. 15, 2022. Nikki Haley announced on Feb. 14, Ron DeSantis on May 24. Youngkin was further tied down by Virginia’s legislative elections in November. If Republicans had won both chambers, that would have surely revved up more talk about Youngkin running. They didn’t, and realistically there may not have been a window for Youngkin to run even if they had — filing deadlines for some states are fast approaching.
3. What will the General Assembly do?
The big thing it did was pass an amended budget. It took until September, but it finally happened. The delay was mostly because of differences between the Republican-controlled House and the Democratic-controlled Senate over tax cuts. The Republicans wanted them, Democrats did not — although they were fine with a one-time rebate from the state’s surplus. In the end, the budget included a rebate of $200 for individuals and $400 for joint filers and increased the standard deduction ($8,500 for single filers and $17,000 for joint filers), as well as increased funding for education and mental health. That budget also included $10 million for the engineering and design work for what would become Virginia’s second inland port in the Mount Rogers Planning District, which encompasses six counties and two cities in Southwest Virginia between Wythe County and Bristol.
4. Will the legislature restrict abortion?
No. There had been speculation that state Sen. Joe Morrissey, D-Richmond, might be open to some restrictions, but a Republican bill on abortion never got to the Senate floor. Nor will it. The November elections effectively put an end to any push to restrict abortion in Virginia for as long as Democrats control the General Assembly.
5. What will happen with marijuana legalization?
In 2021, when Democrats controlled the General Assembly (and everything else in state government), Virginia legalized personal possession of marijuana. Or cannabis, as some prefer. Democrats set in motion a framework for creating a legal retail market and expected to come back in 2022 to finish that work. Funny thing happened: Republicans won the House in 2021 and were divided on what to do. Some don’t approve of legalization at all (sorry, too late for that now), while others of a more libertarian bent are OK with it but disagreed completely with Democrats on how that retail market should work. Democrats, viewing the world through a social justice lens, wanted to give preference to people who had been convicted of marijuana offenses. Republicans saw that as rewarding law-breaking. Anyway, nothing happened in 2022, leaving us with a situation where weed is legal but the only market is the black market. There was thought to be a growing consensus among some Republicans that they need to do something to establish the rules for a retail market, but that didn’t come together in 2023, either. Youngkin is not keen on cannabis and Republicans haven’t been inclined to push the issue if it’s only going to get vetoed. Now that Democrats have regained the legislature, we’ll definitely see yet another push on cannabis in 2024.
6. Will the General Assembly pass a constitutional amendment to address school disparity?
No. State Sen. Bill Stanley, R-Franklin County, has pushed this in the past but didn’t bring it up this year.
7. Who will win the primaries?
We got new legislative districts this year. The redrawn districts prompted a wave of retirements across the state. In our part of the state, that meant the departures of Del. Kathy Byron, R-Bedford County; state Sen. John Edwards, D-Roanoke; state Sen. Emmett Hanger, R-Augusta County; Del. Jim Edmunds, R-Halifax County; and Del. Will Wampler III, R-Washington County, all of whom were paired with other legislators in redistricting, as well as state Sen. Steve Newman, R-Bedford County, and Del. Jeff Campbell, R-Smyth County. Meanwhile, the new maps paired two incumbents who wound up facing off in a primary: Dels. Wren Williams, R-Patrick County, and Marie March, R-Floyd County. Williams won decisively.
8. Who will win the House of Delegates?
Democrats did, barely. Republicans had controlled the House 52-48. Democrats picked up three seats for a 51-49 majority in the new House. That elevates Don Scott, D-Portsmouth, to speaker of the House, making him Virginia’s first Black speaker.
9. Who will win the state Senate?
Democrats did, barely. Democrats had a 22-18 majority before November; now they’ll have a 21-19 majority.
10. Will the Mountain Valley Pipeline get completed?
Not yet, but it’s getting closer. The big pipeline news of the year came not in the courts but in Congress. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia, cut a deal that declared the pipeline a national priority and effectively blocked courts from stopping it. That was a bitter blow to pipeline opponents, who had hoped that courts would either put a halt to the pipeline or at least delay things long enough that investors would bail. There seems little way to stop the pipeline now.
11. Will the state’s ban on so-called skill games be upheld or struck down?
Upheld. The General Assembly banned the games at the behest of casinos, but a lawsuit by former NASCAR driver turned Emporia truck stop owner turned Republican state Senate candidate Hermie Sadler resulted in an injunction that kept the games operating.
The catch: Before, they were taxed, but when the taxing authority expired, the games proliferated in an unregulated fashion. Now that injunction is gone and the games are illegal again, although many localities haven’t started enforcing that ban yet. We might still see legislation on skill games come back in Richmond, though.
12. Who will be named the next director of the Tobacco Commission?
The position had been vacant for about a year. For counties in Southwest and Southside that are covered by the commission, this was kind of a big deal. Earlier in the year, James Campos was tapped for the post. His background is in energy and he’s vowed to bring more energy projects to rural Virginia. That fits the priorities of Youngkin, who also named Campos to be deputy secretary of commerce and trade.
13. Who will be named the next community college chancellor?
Glenn DuBois retired in 2022 and the search to replace him got mixed up in politics. Youngkin didn’t like the community college board’s original pick, who then backed out. Eventually the board picked David Doré, a community college official from Arizona. He’s come in and done exactly what Youngkin had hoped: emphasize workforce training.
14. Who will be named the next presidents at Ferrum College and Liberty University?
Ferrum hired former Fairmont State University president Mirta Martin as its interim president early in the year, and later named her to the permanent post. Liberty named Dondi Costin, who had been president at Charleston Southern University. Sweet Briar College also had a presidential change. Meredith Woo stepped down after six years to return to academic work. She was replaced by Vice President Mary Pope Hutson, the first alumna to lead the school.
15. Will something big land at the Southern Virginia Megasite?
Not yet. A Tennessee company involved in battery work is looking at the site, but it would be a relatively small operation (282 jobs) and wouldn’t tie up the whole 3,528-acre site.
16. Will Virginia get its first on-shore wind farm?
I ask this question every year and the answer is always “not this year.” The Rocky Forge wind farm was first proposed for a mountaintop north of Eagle Rock in Botetourt County in 2015 but so far hasn’t happened. If and when it does, it will be the state’s first. It hasn’t happened yet, so be prepared for me to ask this in my list of questions for 2024 coming next week.
17. What will happen with Youngkin’s proposal for a small modular reactor in Southwest Virginia?
Small modular reactors are small versions of conventional reactors. There are none in the United States — yet — but some under construction elsewhere. Youngkin wants to see one within 10 years and says Southwest Virginia would be an ideal spot. Even before Youngkin’s proposal, Dominion Energy was already planning to add SMRs and seems to have a wider view of where they might go. One option: There’s space available at Dominion’s North Anna nuclear power station in Louisa County. Dominion also says they could be located at places where the utility is decommissioning coal-fired generators, which means Halifax County might potentially be a location. Dominion wants one in service by 2032 so don’t expect one to get built this year, but what paperwork might happen toward that goal?
The answer: Not much, at least not publicly. The LENOWISCO Planning District Commission released a study touting some sites in Southwest Virginia as potential locations, and plans to create an “energy lab” in Southwest Virginia have moved forward. However, here’s the key thing to keep in mind: It’s not the governor who will pick a site for an SMR. If Virginia gets a small modular reactor, it’ll be because a utility has proposed one, and then has gone through all the regulatory steps. The whole push for an SMR suffered a setback this fall when a proposed project in Utah became so costly that it was canceled. Proponents say that doesn’t matter, that the cancellation wasn’t a reflection on the technology, just the price. In any case, we’re still waiting.
18. How will Danville’s temporary casino do?
Caesars, having seen the success of the temporary casino in Bristol, opened a temporary facility in Danville, while construction on the permanent structure is underway. Cardinal’s Grace Mamon and Susan Cameron recently had this update on both casinos.
19. Will the abortion clinic in Bristol stay open?
The facility moved across the state line from Tennessee after Tennessee imposed restrictions following the fall of Roe v. Wade. There have been efforts to shut it down on the Virginia side, but it’s still in operation.
20. What lab schools will we see proposed?
Youngkin wants to see so-called “lab schools” across the state. By law, these special high schools must be tied to a college. So far planning grants have been approved for 10, associated with Eastern Shore Community College, Ferrum College, Norfolk State University, Old Dominion University (two), Piedmont Virginia Community College, Roanoke College, University of Lynchburg, Virginia State University and Virginia Union University. Other applications are pending.
21. Will the hockey team in Wytheville really happen?
Sure did. Some were skeptical when it was announced that the Federal Prospects Hockey League would expand to Wytheville. However, the Blue Ridge Bobcats opened play in October and seem to be drawing well.
22. Will we see more armadillos in Virginia?
The armor-plated critters are waddling north. Some have been sighted in Virginia, as far north as Roanoke, but so far no breeding population has been found. Alas, there were no reported sightings in 2023. Maybe next year?
23. What will happen that we don’t know to ask about?
There are a lot of possible answers to that question. The proliferation of those “adult share” stores where you could get a free joint was certainly one of them. The realignment of the college football landscape — which resulted in the Atlantic Coast Conference adding teams in California and Texas — was another. The implosion of the new Republican majority on the Lynchburg City Council, resulting in the censure of council member Marty Misjuns, was certainly unexpected. I also didn’t expect a bear to try to break into my house, but that happened, too.
On Tuesday, I’ll pose questions for the coming year.
