Virginians’ approval of Gov. Glenn Youngkin remains about the same from the most recent poll in August, with 52% of Virginians approving of the way Youngkin is handling his job as governor — even after Republicans lost their majority in the House of Delegates and retained their upper hand in the state Senate after the legislative elections earlier this month, a new poll released Thursday by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College found.
President Joe Biden’s approval took a slight dip from 40% previously to now 37%, which is still within the margin of error. Youngkin’s approval was at 51% in August.
The percentage of Virginians who believe things are generally on the wrong track in the commonwealth and the nation remains stable from the last poll, with 43% reporting that things are on the wrong track in Virginia and 74% reporting that things are on the wrong track in the nation.
As for the legislatures at the state and national levels, 14% of Virginians approve of the way Congress is handling its job and 45% approve of the way the Virginia General Assembly is handling its job. The approval rating for the General Assembly has dropped about 5 points since May of this year.
Finally, about 63% of Virginians say they at least somewhat closely followed the General Assembly elections held earlier this month, though only about a third (32%) of Virginians think the results of the elections will make a difference in getting things done in Richmond.
Virginians’ favorability ratings for key political figures such as Youngkin, Biden and former President Donald Trump also remain somewhat stable from the last Roanoke College poll.
Approximately 50% of Virginians report a favorable impression of Youngkin, while 39% report an unfavorable impression. At the national level, 39% of Virginians report a favorable impression of Biden, which is a four-point drop from the most recent poll in August. About a third (33%) of Virginians report a favorable view of Trump — which is 6 points less than Biden.
“Virginians’ attitudes about the direction of Virginia and the country remain mixed, yet stable,” said Bryan Parsons, senior political analyst at the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. “This is also true in their approval and favorability ratings for political figures like Youngkin, Biden and Trump. With that said, partisanship continues to shape the way Virginians evaluate key political figures and events.”
Virginians were also surveyed about what they feel is the most important issue facing Virginia today. A plurality (42%) of Virginians cited the economy, jobs or inflation as the most important issue in the commonwealth, though the percentage citing inflation has dropped about 7 points from December 2022.
The Roanoke College poll continued measuring Virginians’ opinions about the current race for the Republican presidential nomination, including who they would most prefer to be the Republican candidate for president in 2024.
With former Vice President Mike Pence suspending his presidential campaign earlier this fall, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research provided survey respondents with an updated field of candidates based on recent national polling, including Trump, Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott. Although he has still not entered the race, Youngkin was also included in the list of candidates.
Trump maintains a commanding lead of 51% as the first choice among self-reported Virginia Republicans, followed by DeSantis at 14%, Haley at 10%, Youngkin at 10% and the rest of the candidates in single digits.
While Trump’s level of support increased about four points from the last poll in August, Haley has seen the most significant shift in support since the August poll (+8% as a first-choice candidate). The survey also asked Virginians to report their second-choice candidate for the Republican nomination, where the results showed a more competitive field. About 26% of Republicans reported DeSantis as their second choice, followed by Youngkin (19%), Haley (17%), Trump (15%), Ramaswamy (10%), Scott (3%) and Christie (3%).
Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election, the poll asked Virginians who they would vote for in a hypothetical matchup between the two parties’ leading candidates. Biden leads Trump by about 4 points at 48% to 44%, which is a continued drop from his 9- and 16-point leads reported in the August and May polls, respectively.
Weighing a breakdown by party identification, while both Biden and Trump have solidified support among Democrats and Republicans, respectively, the poll found that Biden no longer has an advantage among independents. Biden and Trump are currently splitting independents at 46% each.
“As far as the Republican presidential nomination process goes, Trump maintains a commanding lead over the rest of the Republican field,” Parsons said. “While the Republican presidential field is heating up with numerous debates, as well as some candidates — like Nikki Haley — seeing a modest rise in support in our poll, these dynamics do not seem to be affecting the most constant feature of the Republican nomination race so far; that is, Trump continues to be widely popular within the party and remains the favorite for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.”
The takeaway from this poll is that partisanship continues to shape Virginians’ views on everything from the direction of Virginia and the country to positions on key issues in public policy, Parsons concluded. “There are substantial partisan differences in national political anxiety, but the common thread is that national political anxiety has seen a modest increase over the past year or so. Our poll results add to the evidence of the depths of polarization in American politics.”
The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College interviewed 686 adult residents of Virginia between Nov. 12 and Nov. 20, 2023. The survey has a margin of error of 4.31%.