And now we come to the column where I bust open a long-held stereotype like a pinata at a children’s party.
For as long as I can remember, we’ve been told that young adults move away from rural areas and that’s why those communities today are effectively aging out – and dying out. Today, I come before you, armed with data, to show that that isn’t quite true.
Certainly some young adults move. People everywhere of all ages sometimes move. However, data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that Southwest and Southside do not have a disproportionately high number of young adults leaving.
On the contrary, one part of Southwest Virginia – Bristol, Scott County, Smyth County and Washington County – is part of a zone that retains a higher percentage of its young adults than any other part of the state.
The Census Bureau has tracked what percentage of teenagers at age 16 are still living in the same community when they turn 26. This data gets organized by “commuting zone,” not a grouping we see very often but one that is used for laborshed purposes. In those cases, the Southwest Virginia localities above are part of the Johnson City commuting zone that runs well into Tennessee. That means we can’t say exactly what the retention rate is for those Virginia localities, but they’re part of a larger commuting zone where the retention rate from age 16 to 26 is 75%. Maybe there’s some unique exodus happening in those Virginia localities that gets papered over by data from the Tennessee counties. Or maybe not. All we know is that the 16-to-26 retention rate in the Johnson City commuting zone is one of the highest in the country, and some Southwest Virginia localities are part of that.
Meanwhile, the lowest retention rates in the state come in two places that are on the edge of Northern Virginia. In the Fredericksburg commuting zone, the retention rate is just 52%. In the Winchester commuting zone, it’s 56%.
So we need to stop whining about young adults leaving rural Virginia because, proportionately speaking, it’s just not true. We’re keeping two-thirds to three-quarters of our young adults, yet there’s a place in the urban crescent that’s losing half of its young adults.
More data: The retention rate in the Roanoke commuting zone is exactly the same as the retention rate in the Washington, D.C., zone: 68%. In other parts of Southwest Virginia, the rate is 67% and 66%. (I’ll show you which ones below.)
Are you ready to pick up all the pieces of candy that have fallen out of that pinata?
I first became aware of all of this thanks to the Virginia Public Access Project, which recently published a nifty interactive map of Virginia that shows off this data. To better understand it, I turned to demographer Hamilton Lombard at the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia. He, in turn, pointed me to this national database that can provide hours of fun for us data nerds. Lombard points out that many rural areas in Virginia do a better job of retaining their young adults than big metros do. The problem is, they don’t attract many young adults from elsewhere. That means overall, yes, a rural area may still be losing young adults because their out-migration isn’t offset by in-migration of somebody else’s young adults. Some metros may lose a bigger percentage of their young adults, but they see lots of others move in, so the net effect is a plus for them.
Here’s what that means: Rural areas are becoming older because their existing populations are aging in place, and few young adults are moving in – and a higher retention rate of young adults isn’t enough to make up the difference. “At this point,” Lombard says by email, “the age structure is so unbalanced for most of Virginia’s rural counties that even if they kept 90%+ of young adults, their populations will still decline precipitously unless they can attract more young adults or less plausibly have a baby boom.”
I can’t find any place in the country that retains 90%+ of its young adults. That Johnson City commuting zone figure of 75% is pretty close to what we see in our biggest metros – Los Angeles retains 80% of its young adults, New York City retains 79%, Houston retains 77%, Chicago retains 76%, Seattle retains 75%, Nashville retains 73%, San Francisco/Silicon Valley retains 72%. Generally speaking, the major metros have the highest retention rates, and we shouldn’t be surprised: That’s where the economic opportunity is.
The retention rates in much of Southwest and Southside run about 10% lower than those major metros. That’s one way to visualize our “leakage” of young adults, so there is some, to be sure. On the other hand, many rural areas have retention rates that are far lower.
The commuting zones in Southwest Virginia have much better retention rates than the ones across the border in West Virginia. The rate for Virginia’s coal counties is 67% or 66% depending on which counties you look at. Across the border in southern West Virginia, it’s 53%.
The lowest retention rate in Southside Virginia is the South Boston commuting zone that takes in a triangle from Halifax County to Cumberland County and back down to Brunswick County. It’s 58%. By contrast, Van Horn, Texas, retains just 22% of its young adults. Alpine, Texas, retains just 30%. Valentine, Nebraska, holds onto just 33%. In Jackson, Wyoming, it’s 34%. In Bowman, North Dakota, 35%. Those numbers are pretty typical for much of the Plains, the Rockies and the Southwest. Even the Aleutian Islands of Alaska have a higher retention rate than those places – 40%. The exodus of young adults is most severe somewhere between the West Coast and the Mississippi, not Appalachia. Ours could certainly be better, but it’s attraction, not retention, that’s the biggest problem.
Looked at another way, many parts of Southwest and Southside have pretty high retention rates for rural areas yet are still losing population. That really underscores the point: If those counties want to have any hope of reversing their population declines, they don’t just need to retain young adults, they need to attract others. I say specifically young adults, rather than just any adults, because young adults have the tendency to fall in love and have children. Localities with a lot of young adults don’t have to worry so much about importing more – the demography takes care of itself.
So, now that we’ve established this context, let’s go through the commuting zones for our coverage area one by one and take a closer look at the data – and just where the young adults who are moving actually move to.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Some believe that Virginia ends at the Cumberland Gap. Those in Southwest believe that’s where it begins, so let’s go with that interpretation.
BIG STONE GAP COMMUTING ZONE
Lee County, Wise County, Norton, Dickenson County
Retention rate: 67%
Comparable to: Fort Worth, Texas 67%
Elsewhere in Virginia: 17%
Other states: 16%
Five biggest destinations for those who do leave (by commuting zone):
Johnson City 9.2%
Bluefield 3.7%
Roanoke 1.0%
Washington 0.76%
Richmond 0.41%
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
BLUEFIELD COMMUTING ZONE
Bland County, Buchanan County, Russell County, Tazewell County, Wise County, Wythe County, plus Mercer County, West Virginia
Retention rate: 66%
Comparable to: Raleigh, North Carolina 66%
Elsewhere in Virginia, West Virginia: 20%
Other states: 14%
Five biggest destinations for those who do leave (by commuting zone):
Johnson City 5.3%
Roanoke 4.7%
Big Stone Gap 1.8%
Washington 0.78%
Richmond 0.65%
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
JOHNSON CITY COMMUTING ZONE
Bristol, Scott County, Smyth County, Washington County, plus multiple counties in Tennessee
Retention rate: 75%
Comparable to: Phoenix 76%
Elsewhere in Virginia/Tennessee: 11%
Other states: 14%
Five biggest destinations for those who do leave (by commuting zone):
Knoxville, Tennessee 2.6%
Morristown, Tennessee 1.3%
Bluefield 0.69%
Washington 0.60%
Big Stone Gap/Roanoke (tie) 0.57%
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
GALAX COMMUTING ZONE
Carroll County, Galax, Grayson County, plus Alleghany County, North Carolina
Retention rate: 61%
Comparable to: Columbia, Tennessee 61%
Elsewhere in Virginia/Tennessee: 28%
Other states: 11%
Five biggest destinations for those who do leave (by commuting zone):
Roanoke 5.0%
Bluefield 2.6%
Johnson City, Tennessee 2.2%
Charlotte, North Carolina 1.4%
Greensboro, North Carolina/Raleigh, North Carolina (tie) 1.1%
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
ROANOKE COMMUTING ZONE
Botetourt County, Craig County, Floyd County, Franklin County, Giles County, Montgomery County, Pulaski County, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke County, Salem.
Retention rate: 68%
Comparable to: Charlotte, North Carolina 68%
Elsewhere in Virginia: 15%
Other states: 17%
Five biggest destinations for those who do leave (by commuting zone):
Washington 2.9%
Richmond 2.3%
Lynchburg 2.1%
Charlotte, North Carolina 1.2%
Raleigh, North Carolina 0.94%
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
STAUNTON COMMUTING ZONE
Alleghany County, Augusta County, Bath County, Buena Vista, Highland County, Lexington, Nelson County, Rockbridge County, Staunton, Waynesboro.
Retention rate: 65%
Comparable to: Asheville, North Carolina 65%
Elsewhere in Virginia: 20%
Other states: 15%
Five biggest destinations for those who do leave (by commuting zone):
Roanoke 3.7%
Harrisonburg 3.2%
Charlottesville 2.9%
Washington/Richmond (tie) 2.6%
Lynchburg 1.9%
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
LYNCHBURG
Amherst County, Appomattox County, Bedford County, Campbell County, Lynchburg
Retention rate: 64%
Comparable to: Savannah, Georgia 63%
Elsewhere in Virginia: 19%
Other states: 16%
Five biggest destinations for those who do leave (by commuting zone):
Roanoke 5.9%
Richmond 3.2%
Washington 2.8%
Greensboro, North Carolina 1.7%
Virginia Beach 1.2%
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
MARTINSVILLE
Henry County, Martinsville, Patrick County
Retention rate: 60%
Comparable to: Jacksonville, North Carolina 59%
Elsewhere in Virginia: 22%
Other states: 18%
Five biggest destinations for those who do leave (by commuting zone):
Roanoke 6.8%
Greensboro, North Carolina 6.4%
Richmond/Washington/Charlotte, North Carolina (tie) 1.8%
Virginia Beach 1.1%
Raleigh, North Carolina 1.0%
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
GREENSBORO COMMUTING ZONE
Danville, Pittsylvania County, plus multiple counties in North Carolina
Because Danville gets subsumed into the Greensboro commuting zone, these figures are less useful to us because they really tell us more about that part of North Carolina. Nonetheless:
Retention rate: 68%
Comparable to: Charlotte, North Carolina 68%
Elsewhere in Virginia/North Carolina: 19%
Other states: 13%
Five biggest destinations for those who do leave (by commuting zone):
Raleigh, North Carolina 5%
Winston-Salem, North Carolina 3.2%
Washington 1%
Wilmington, North Carolina 0.97% .
Atlanta 0.81%
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
SOUTH BOSTON
Charlotte County, Cumberland County, Brunswick County, Halifax County, Lunenburg County, Mecklenburg County, Nottoway County, Prince Edward County
Retention rate: 58%
Comparable to: Roanoke Rapids, North Carolina 57%
Elsewhere in Virginia: 26%
Other states: 13%
Five biggest destinations for those who do leave (by commuting zone):
Lynchburg 2.7%
Raleigh, North Carolina 2.5%
Washington 2.4%
Greensboro, North Carolina/Virginia Beach (tie) 1.9%
Charlottesville 1.8%
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
WASHINGTON COMMUTING ZONE
That exhausts our coverage area, but just for kicks let’s pull the stats for the Washington commuting zone, which covers Northern Virginia and parts of Maryland:
Retention rate: 68%
Comparable to: Greensboro, North Carolina 68%
Elsewhere in Virginia, Maryland, D.C.: 10%
Other states: 22%
Five biggest destinations for those who do leave (by commuting zone):
Baltimore 3.7%
New York 2.3%
Los Angeles 1.2%
Atlanta/Philadelphia (tie) 0.71%
San Francisco 0.65%
Notice how different D.C.’s top five destinations are from any of the others we’ve seen? This underscores a point I made in an earlier column with different data: Northern Virginia (or, in this case, the larger D.C. market) is connected to a completely different economy than the one we’re in. When their young adults move, they’re moving to seek opportunity in other major metros; ours aren’t. We’re speaking two entirely different economic languages.
Other takeaways I have from all these maps: Washington pretty regularly shows up on many lists as one of the top five destinations. The percentages may be small, but still, this shows what a powerful economic force that market is. The gravitational force of Washington pulls away a certain number of our young adults every year. That’s the price we pay for proximity. It’s not just us, either. Washington shows up as a top out-migration community for many of the commuting zones up and down the East Coast (and lots of other places beyond the East Coast). Even in Kapaa, Hawaii, the westernmost commuting zone in the island chain, Washington shows up as one of the more frequent destinations.
I also notice how, in many places in Southwest and Southside, some cities in North Carolina pull away more young adults than other communities in Virginia do. Some of that may simply be geography; those North Carolina cities are closer. Still, these trends feed into Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s rightful concern that more people are moving out of Virginia than are moving in. Here’s part of that foot traffic.What should we do with this data? Ideally, it does several things. First, it should help us feel a little better about ourselves. We’re not losing as many young adults as we might have thought. Second, it should help us refocus our attention. We are losing more than metros do. And even our best efforts – such as those in that Johnson City commuting zone – still aren’t enough to reverse population declines, due to the age structure of many communities. Realistically, we can’t do much about that, but we can work on doing a better job on retention and attraction. So here’s a challenge: Who’s doing the best job at this and how? I’d love to know.