9:39 p.m.: We have winners or near-winners
OK, let’s wrap this up.
Roanoke council: Joe Cobb, Vivian Sanchez-Jones and Peter Volosin will be the Democratic ticket for city council. They’ll face a full Republican slate plus multiple independents in the fall. More on that here. And even more context here.
6th district Republican primary: Cline, in a landslide. More details here. He’ll face Jennifer Lewis in a rematch of the 2018 race that he won handily. This time the district is even more Republican.
2nd district Republican primary: Republican Jen Kiggans fended off a far-right challenger to earn the right to face Democratic incumbent Elaine Luria in what should be a close contest.
3rd district Republican primary: Terry Namkung has coasted to victory but it probably doesn’t matter. This is a heavily Democratic district, now represented by Bobby Scott.
7th district Republican primary: This is the most exciting one of the night. With 203 of 213 precinct reporting, Yesli Vega leads with 28.95% of the vote to 23.6% for Derrick Anderson. Vega was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, which surely helped boost her out of a six-candidate field. She’ll face Democrat Abigail Spanberger in a district that tilts slightly Democratic but has been greatly redrawn since Spanberger first won the seat. So Kiggans-Luria and Vega-Spanberger will be the most closely watched contests in Virginia this November.
8:32 p.m.: Only mail ballots remain in Roanoke
OK all the votes in Roanoke’s Democratic primary for city council are counted except for the mail votes, which by law can come in through Friday at noon. The results at the moment:
Joe Cobb: 3,111
Vivian Sanchez-Jones: 2,710
Peter Volosin: 2,587
Terry McGuire: 2,309
The top three win so I’m prepared to say Cobb, Sanchez-Jones and Volosin will be the Democratic ticket this fall. I just can’t imagine enough mail ballots in a low turn-out election like this to make a difference.
McGuire posted respectable numbers but, as noted earlier, was weak in the city’s Black precincts and blue-collar precincts. He ran well in the more affluent parts of town – Raleigh Court, South Roanoke, for instance — just not well enough to overcome those deficits.
The Democratic ticket this fall faces a full Republican slate, plus independent bids by former Mayor David Bowers and likely others. No Republican has won a council race in Roanoke since 2000. Strategically, the question is whether the weakest Democrat in the fall will be strong enough to defeat either Bowers or the strongest Republican. For more on how this might play out I refer you to my column today on the Roanoke City Council race.
8:30 pm.: Anderson back out in front in 7th
This one may flip-flop all night long. Anderson 25.04%, Vega 24.22% with 142 of 214 precincts reporting.
8:18 p.m.: Another lead change in the 7th; Vega now up
Not our race but the most interesting one of the night: In the 7th congressional district Republican primary, Yesli Vega has pulled back out in front with 24.96%, Derrick Anderson 24.62%, Bryce Reeves 21.11% and Crystal Vanuch falling down to 19.53%. Right now, 134 of 213 precincts in. This is recount territory, folks. Fascinating race here.
8:15 p.m.: Just waiting on absentees in Roanoke
All the votes are counted except early votes and regular absentees. At the moment:
Joe Cobb: 1,680
Peter Volosin: 1,384
Vivian Sanchez-Jones: 1,373
Terry McGuire: 1,171
8:03 p.m. Cobb, Volosin, Sanchez-Jones leading in Roanoke
Was I premature in pronouncing the Roanoke Democratic council primary nearly over? Terry McGuire has been gaining. With 19 of 23 precincts reporting:
Joe Cobb: 1,680
Peter Volosin: 1,384
Vivian Sanchez-Jones: 1,373
Terry McGuire: 1,171
The top three win. Keep in mind the early votes — counted as absentees — are still out. We don’t know how many votes are there but it would take a big early vote for McGuire to make up that deficit. Not out of the question, though.
8:00 p.m.: Anderson takes lead in the 7th
The 7th district Republican primary isn’t really one we’ve followed — outside our coverage area — but it’s the most interesting one of the night. With 122 of 213 precincts reporting, Derrick Anderson has just taken the lead with 24.64% over Yesli Vega with 24.27% and Bryce Reeves with 21.22% and Crystal Vanuch at 20..44%.
7:48 p.m.: Roanoke Democratic primary results settling in
I feel safe in saying that Joe Cobb, Vivian Sanchez-Jones and Peter Volosin will win, with Terry McGuire finishing out of the money.
We have 13 of 23 precincts in and what I’m noticing is that McGuire is consistently finishing fourth in the more blue-collar parts of the city. He’s running better in more affluent neighborhood. He’s second behind Cobb in Raleigh Court, second behind Cobb in Old Southwest but third in Grandin Court and third in Crystal Spring. To make up those big deficits in Eureka Park and Lincoln Terrace, he’ll need a bigger vote somewhere and so far isn’t getting it. He’s the only candidate who’s neither an incumbent (Cobb and Sanchez-Jones) nor someone who had run before (Volosin). Running citywide is hard. It’s easy to do well in one part of town but to win citywide you’ve got to show strength citywide.
7:45 p.m.: Kiggans leads in 2nd, Vega in 7th
For those of you following the other races tonight, Jen Kiggans has pulled out to 57.9% in the 2nd district — with 83 of 236 precincts reporting. In the 3rd, Terry Numkung is rolling over Ted Engquist, with 60% of the vote — and most of the precincts reporting. The 7th is far more interesting: Yesli Vega is at 26.13%, Derrick Anderson 24.63%, Bryce Reeves 22.29%.
If any Democrats are curious about their lone congressional primary, incumbent Don Beyer is rolling up 77% in the 8th district.
7:41 p.m.: Cline still north of 80%
With 166 of 234 precints reporting, it’s incumbent Ben Cline 80.92%, challenger Merritt Hale 19.08%. Will Cline finish above 80% at the end? Stay tuned!
7:34 p.m: Cobb, Sanchez-Jones, Volosin leading in Roanoke
Another Black precinct in Roanoke in and once again Terry McGuire has come in a distant fourth. He’s coming in fourth in other precincts, but is particuarly weak in the Black precincts. That’s usually death for citywide candidates in Roanoke, particularly in a Democratic primary.
In Lincoln Terrace:
With 7 of 23 precincts in, it’s Cobb, Sanchez-Jones, Volosin in that order, with McGuire in fourth and out of the money. Barring some big surprises in other parts of the city, I suspect that’s how things will work out.
7:25 pm. First Roanoke results in.
OK, we’re getting the first votes in the Roanoke Democratic council primary where four candidates are seeking three slots. So far, we have 4 of 23 precincts reporting: Hollins Road Lee-Hi, Summit Hills, Eureka Park. The results so far:
Joe Cobb 372
Vivian Sanchez-Jones: 358
Peter Volosin 333
Terry McGuire 203
Of note: Eureka Park is a predominantly Black precincs, and McGuire is running well behind there. In Eureka Park, it’s:
This tells me two things: 1 — A lot of voters are voting for Cobb, Sanchez-Jones, and Volosin, whose signs I’ve often seen grouped together. 2 — This doesn’t bode well for McGuire. It’s tough for a Democrat to win citywide if he or she doesn’t do well in the Black precincts.
7:22 p.m.: The 7th gets more interesting
The 7th district Republican primary is the one to watch, folks. They have six candidates and now four of them are reasonably bunched together, in this order: Yesli Vega 28.38%, Derrick Anderson 25.43%, Bryce Reeves 19.82%, Crystal Vanuch 17.76%. We have only 22 of 213 precincts in, so lot of votes to go. We election junkies live for elections like that.
7:20 p.m. Kiggans leads in 2nd, close race in 7th
For those looking for more exciting races tonight: With 3 of 236 votes in, Jen Kiggans has 52.43% of the vote in the 2nd district Republican primary. In the 7th, with 4 of 213 precincts in, we’re seeing three of the six candidates bunched together, in this order: Yesli Vega, Bryce Reeves, Derrick Anderson. That one will be a fun one to watch.
7:15 p.m. First returns from Frederick County in.
We’re now up to 28 of 234 precincts in the 6th district Republican primary and I think the only question of the night is whether we should use the word “stomp” or “crush” to describe the victory that incumbent Ben Cline will soon claim. The first returns from Frederick County — challenger Merritt Hale’s home base and new territory that was added to the 6th district in redistricting so a place where Cline has never run before — and Cline is pulling 74.19% of the vote there. District-wide, he’s at 81.97%. So here’s a parlor game question for the election junkies among us: Will he stay over 80% when all the votes are counted?
7:14 p.m. Cline leads big in early returns
With 12 of 234 precincts in, it’s incumbent Ben Cline 83.99%, challenger Merritt Hale 16.01%.
7:06 p.m.: Votes already coming in
With a light turn-out, these results are coming in fast. With 6 of 234 precincts reporting in the 6th district Republican primary, it’s incumbent Ben Cline 84.91%, challenger Merritt Hale 15.09%.
The 6th district gets a prize for being the first to start reporting votes. So far, this is the only race in the state we have numbers for.
7 p.m.: Polls have closed
Polls have now closed in today’s primary elections. Check back here for results and analysis. We’ll mostly be following the 6th district Republican primary (see this advancer by Markus Schmidt) and the Roanoke Democratic city council primary (see this advancer) but might have a few things to say about the races on the eastern side of the state.